LLY
Eli Lilly and Company
LLY has the edge over NVS overall, supported by stronger modeled upside and stronger fundamentals.
NVS
Novartis AG
NVS's outlook is improving despite an expensive valuation.
LLY Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| Strong | |
| Healthy |
LLY's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently healthy.
NVS Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Healthy | |
| Healthy | |
| Stable |
NVS's profitability and cash flow are currently healthy, and its revenue and balance sheet are stable.
LLY PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 27x | $845 | -41% |
| Forward | 30x | $1,427 | — |
| Current | 46x | $1,427 | — |
| Fair | 48x | $1,466 | +2.7% |
| Expensive | 85x | $2,612 | +83% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
LLY has the edge over NVS in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
NVS PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 13x | $67.63 | -58% |
| Fair | 19x | $98.78 | -38% |
| Expensive | 26x | $134 | -16% |
| Current | 31x | $160 | — |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
NVS's PE is in its expensive range at 31x.
LLY Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
Analysts expect strong earnings and revenue growth for LLY, with profitability improving.
NVS Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Growth | |
| Growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| High |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for NVS, with profitability improving.
LLY Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $46.82 | +52% |
| Q3 2026 | $30.81 | +51% |
| Q2 2026 | $29.80 | +95% |
| Q1 2026 | $28.15 | +129% |
| Q4 2025 | $22.95 | +96% |
| Q3 2025 | $20.44 | +121% |
| Q2 2025 | $15.30 | +88% |
| Q1 2025 | $12.29 | +81% |
| Q4 2024 | $11.71 | +102% |
LLY has the edge over NVS on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
NVS Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $5.24 | -28% |
| Q2 2026 | $6.63 | -3.4% |
| Q1 2026 | $6.98 | +9.2% |
| Q4 2025 | $7.15 | +22% |
| Q3 2025 | $7.31 | -15% |
| Q2 2025 | $6.86 | -13% |
| Q1 2025 | $6.39 | -13% |
| Q4 2024 | $5.88 | -18% |
NVS's earnings per share have fallen from their peak: $5.24 over the past year, against $10.73 in early 2022.
LLY Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $24.4B | +39% |
| Q2 2026 | $23B | +48% |
| Q1 2026 | $19.8B | +56% |
| Q4 2025 | $19.3B | +43% |
| Q3 2025 | $17.6B | +54% |
| Q2 2025 | $15.6B | +38% |
| Q1 2025 | $12.7B | +45% |
| Q4 2024 | $13.5B | +45% |
LLY has the edge over NVS on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 34% | -6.6 points |
| Q2 2026 | 40% | -3.3 points |
| Q1 2026 | 45% | +18 points |
| Q4 2025 | 43% | +5.6 points |
| Q3 2025 | 41% | +27 points |
| Q2 2025 | 44% | +12 points |
| Q1 2025 | 27% | -1.8 points |
| Q4 2024 | 37% | +10 points |
LLY has the edge over NVS on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
NVS Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $15B | +4.7% |
| Q2 2026 | $14.4B | -2.8% |
| Q1 2026 | $13.5B | -0.7% |
| Q4 2025 | $13.3B | -1.6% |
| Q3 2025 | $14.4B | +9% |
| Q2 2025 | $14.8B | +15% |
| Q1 2025 | $13.6B | +12% |
| Q4 2024 | $13.6B | +15% |
NVS's revenue has held roughly level: $15B last quarter, up 4.7% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 12% | -19 points |
| Q2 2026 | 33% | +0.1 points |
| Q1 2026 | 31% | -2.9 points |
| Q4 2025 | 26% | +0.4 points |
| Q3 2025 | 31% | +3.8 points |
| Q2 2025 | 33% | +1.6 points |
| Q1 2025 | 34% | +6.4 points |
| Q4 2024 | 26% | +4.1 points |
NVS's operating margin was 12% last quarter, down 19 points from the same quarter a year ago, near the bottom of its range since 2019.
LLY Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $8.2B | +22% |
| Q2 2026 | $7.8B | +458% |
| Q1 2026 | $3B | +1826% |
| Q4 2025 | $677.9M | -31% |
| Q3 2025 | $6.7B | +186% |
| Q2 2025 | $1.4B | +476% |
| Q1 2025 | $156.1M | -13% |
| Q4 2024 | $977.8M | +$2.4B |
LLY has the edge over NVS on cash flow, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
NVS Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $4.8B | -17% |
| Q2 2026 | $5.6B | -8.8% |
| Q1 2026 | $2.9B | +33% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.6B | -46% |
| Q3 2025 | $5.7B | +4.6% |
| Q2 2025 | $6.1B | +47% |
| Q1 2025 | $2.2B | +94% |
| Q4 2024 | $3.1B | +43% |
NVS's free cash flow has been positive every quarter for seven years: $14.8B over the past year, down 13% from the year before.
LLY Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | 0% | -300K shares |
| 1 year | -0.6% | -5.4M shares |
| 3 years | -0.7% | -6.4M shares |
| 5 years | -1.9% | -17.4M shares |
| Available history | -4.5% | -42.3M shares |
LLY has 893M diluted shares, down 0.6% from a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $377M |
| Q2 2026 | $1.6B |
| Q1 2026 | $2.4B |
| Q4 2025 | $1.5B |
| Q3 2025 | $708.1M |
| Q2 2025 | $692.2M |
| Q1 2025 | $1.2B |
| Q4 2024 | $2.1B |
LLY spent $5.8B buying back its own shares over the past year, up 26% from the year before.
NVS Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.5% | -9M shares |
| 1 year | -1.8% | -35M shares |
| 3 years | -8.2% | -170M shares |
| 5 years | -15% | -349M shares |
| Available history | -17% | -387M shares |
NVS has the edge over LLY on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1.7B |
| Q2 2026 | $1.2B |
| Q1 2026 | $1.9B |
| Q4 2025 | $1.5B |
| Q3 2025 | $2.3B |
| Q2 2025 | $2.7B |
| Q1 2025 | $2.7B |
| Q4 2024 | $2.8B |
NVS spent $6.2B buying back its own shares over the past year, down 40% from the year before.
LLY Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 1.2x | Healthy |
| Q2 2026 | 1.3x | Healthy |
| Q1 2026 | 1.2x | Healthy |
| Q4 2025 | 1.3x | Healthy |
| Q3 2025 | 1.3x | Healthy |
| Q2 2025 | 2.0x | Healthy |
| Q1 2025 | 2.3x | Moderate |
| Q4 2024 | 2.1x | Moderate |
LLY has the edge over NVS on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
NVS Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 1.8x | Healthy |
| Q2 2026 | 1.9x | Healthy |
| Q1 2026 | 1.8x | Healthy |
| Q4 2025 | 1.1x | Healthy |
| Q3 2025 | 1.0x | Very low |
| Q2 2025 | 1.1x | Healthy |
| Q1 2025 | 1.1x | Healthy |
| Q4 2024 | 1.0x | Very low |
NVS's net debt is about 1.8 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), up from a year a year ago.
LLY Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 68.3 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 84.1 | Overbought |
LLY's weekly RSI is 68 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 84 (overbought).
NVS Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 57.3 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 85.0 | Overbought |
NVS's weekly RSI is 57 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 85 (overbought).
LLY PE vs Healthcare Sector
| Metric | LLY | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 46x | 26x | 79% above |
| PE % | 48 | 29 | 19 pts above |
LLY is trading at 46x earnings, a 79% premium to the Healthcare sector's median of 26x.
NVS PE vs Healthcare Sector
| Metric | NVS | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 31x | 26x | 18% above |
| PE % | 98 | 29 | 69 pts above |
NVS has the edge over LLY on valuation relative to its sector.
LLY Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $1,279.4 | 12% above |
| 20 week MA | $1,218.8 | 17% above |
| 50 week MA | $1,102.2 | 29% above |
| 100 week MA | $954.1 | 50% above |
| 200 week MA | $797.5 | 79% above |
LLY is in an uptrend: it's above all five of its weekly moving averages, and 79% above its 200-week average.
NVS Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $151.9 | 5.5% above |
| 20 week MA | $152.6 | 5% above |
| 50 week MA | $150.5 | 6.5% above |
| 100 week MA | $133.2 | 20% above |
| 200 week MA | $116.3 | 38% above |
NVS is in an uptrend: it's above all five of its weekly moving averages, and 38% above its 200-week average.
LLY Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $131.5 | $166.7 | +27% |
| 2021 | $166.7 | $273.1 | +64% |
| 2022 | $273.1 | $367.9 | +35% |
| 2023 | $367.9 | $582.9 | +58% |
| 2024 | $582.9 | $783.2 | +34% |
| 2025 | $783.2 | $1,077.8 | +38% |
| 2026 YTD | $1,077.8 | $1,427.3 | +32% |
LLY has the edge over NVS on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
NVS Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $90.3 | $83.8 | -7.2% |
| 2021 | $83.8 | $82.0 | -2.1% |
| 2022 | $82.0 | $86.0 | +4.9% |
| 2023 | $86.0 | $101.0 | +17% |
| 2024 | $101.0 | $98.4 | -2.6% |
| 2025 | $98.4 | $139.2 | +41% |
| 2026 YTD | $139.2 | $160.3 | +15% |
NVS has finished lower in three of the last six years. It's up 15% so far in 2026.