LLY
Eli Lilly and Company
LLY has the edge over NHC overall, supported by stronger modeled upside and stronger valuation.
NHC
National HealthCare Corporation
NHC trails on the overall score without a compensating advantage in the available component scores.
LLY Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| Strong | |
| Healthy |
LLY's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently healthy.
NHC Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Healthy | |
| Healthy | |
| Stable |
NHC's profitability and cash flow are currently healthy, and its revenue and balance sheet are stable.
LLY PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 27x | $845 | -41% |
| Forward | 30x | $1,427 | — |
| Current | 46x | $1,427 | — |
| Fair | 48x | $1,466 | +2.7% |
| Expensive | 85x | $2,612 | +83% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
LLY has the edge over NHC in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
NHC PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 12x | $88.68 | -58% |
| Fair | 22x | $156 | -26% |
| Current | 29x | $211 | — |
| Expensive | 33x | $242 | +15% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
NHC's PE is in its expensive range at 29x.
LLY Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
Analysts expect strong earnings and revenue growth for LLY, with profitability improving.
NHC Forward outlook
There aren't enough analyst estimates for NHC to show an outlook.
LLY Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $46.82 | +52% |
| Q3 2026 | $30.81 | +51% |
| Q2 2026 | $29.80 | +95% |
| Q1 2026 | $28.15 | +129% |
| Q4 2025 | $22.95 | +96% |
| Q3 2025 | $20.44 | +121% |
| Q2 2025 | $15.30 | +88% |
| Q1 2025 | $12.29 | +81% |
| Q4 2024 | $11.71 | +102% |
LLY has the edge over NHC on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
NHC Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $7.24 | +12% |
| Q2 2026 | $8.89 | +33% |
| Q1 2026 | $7.87 | +14% |
| Q4 2025 | $7.67 | +17% |
| Q3 2025 | $6.47 | -19% |
| Q2 2025 | $6.70 | +13% |
| Q1 2025 | $6.91 | +31% |
| Q4 2024 | $6.53 | +50% |
NHC's earnings per share have fallen from their peak: $7.24 over the past year, against $10.82 in mid-2021.
LLY Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $24.4B | +39% |
| Q2 2026 | $23B | +48% |
| Q1 2026 | $19.8B | +56% |
| Q4 2025 | $19.3B | +43% |
| Q3 2025 | $17.6B | +54% |
| Q2 2025 | $15.6B | +38% |
| Q1 2025 | $12.7B | +45% |
| Q4 2024 | $13.5B | +45% |
LLY has the edge over NHC on sales, with stronger typical year-over-year growth.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 34% | -6.6 points |
| Q2 2026 | 40% | -3.3 points |
| Q1 2026 | 45% | +18 points |
| Q4 2025 | 43% | +5.6 points |
| Q3 2025 | 41% | +27 points |
| Q2 2025 | 44% | +12 points |
| Q1 2025 | 27% | -1.8 points |
| Q4 2024 | 37% | +10 points |
LLY has the edge over NHC on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
NHC Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $408M | +6.6% |
| Q2 2026 | $408M | +8.8% |
| Q1 2026 | $381.8M | +2.2% |
| Q4 2025 | $386.5M | +4.6% |
| Q3 2025 | $382.7M | +12% |
| Q2 2025 | $374.9M | +25% |
| Q1 2025 | $373.7M | +26% |
| Q4 2024 | $369.4M | +23% |
NHC's revenue has grown year over year for 14 quarters in a row: $408M last quarter, up 6.6% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 10% | +2 points |
| Q2 2026 | 12% | +2.9 points |
| Q1 2026 | 8.4% | +0.2 points |
| Q4 2025 | 8.6% | +1.4 points |
| Q3 2025 | 7.9% | +1.8 points |
| Q2 2025 | 9.1% | +1.6 points |
| Q1 2025 | 8.2% | +3 points |
| Q4 2024 | 7.2% | +0.5 points |
NHC's operating margin was 10% last quarter, up 2 points from the same quarter a year ago, near the top of its range since 2019.
LLY Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $8.2B | +22% |
| Q2 2026 | $7.8B | +458% |
| Q1 2026 | $3B | +1826% |
| Q4 2025 | $677.9M | -31% |
| Q3 2025 | $6.7B | +186% |
| Q2 2025 | $1.4B | +476% |
| Q1 2025 | $156.1M | -13% |
| Q4 2024 | $977.8M | +$2.4B |
LLY generated $19.7B in free cash flow over the past year, up 112% from the year before.
NHC Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $99.2M | +76% |
| Q2 2026 | $30.7M | -42% |
| Q1 2026 | $52.9M | +60% |
| Q4 2025 | $6.4M | +38% |
| Q3 2025 | $56.5M | +98% |
| Q2 2025 | $52.6M | +23% |
| Q1 2025 | $33.1M | +797% |
| Q4 2024 | $4.6M | -73% |
NHC generated $189M in free cash flow over the past year, up 29% from the year before.
LLY Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | 0% | -300K shares |
| 1 year | -0.6% | -5.4M shares |
| 3 years | -0.7% | -6.4M shares |
| 5 years | -1.9% | -17.4M shares |
| Available history | -4.5% | -42.3M shares |
LLY has the edge over NHC on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $377M |
| Q2 2026 | $1.6B |
| Q1 2026 | $2.4B |
| Q4 2025 | $1.5B |
| Q3 2025 | $708.1M |
| Q2 2025 | $692.2M |
| Q1 2025 | $1.2B |
| Q4 2024 | $2.1B |
LLY spent $5.8B buying back its own shares over the past year, up 26% from the year before.
NHC Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +0.6% | +101K shares |
| 1 year | +1.9% | +300K shares |
| 3 years | +4.2% | +640K shares |
| 5 years | +3.9% | +601K shares |
| Available history | +3.9% | +605K shares |
NHC has 16M diluted shares, up 1.9% from a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1.1M |
| Q2 2026 | $7.2M |
| Q1 2026 | $16.3M |
| Q4 2025 | $5.2M |
| Q3 2025 | $3.2M |
| Q2 2025 | $4.7M |
| Q1 2025 | $1.7M |
| Q4 2024 | — |
NHC spent $30M buying back its own shares over the past year, about three times what it spent the year before.
LLY Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 1.2x | Healthy |
| Q2 2026 | 1.3x | Healthy |
| Q1 2026 | 1.2x | Healthy |
| Q4 2025 | 1.3x | Healthy |
| Q3 2025 | 1.3x | Healthy |
| Q2 2025 | 2.0x | Healthy |
| Q1 2025 | 2.3x | Moderate |
| Q4 2024 | 2.1x | Moderate |
LLY has the edge over NHC on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
NHC Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 2.1x | Moderate |
| Q2 2026 | -0.2x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -0.5x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q3 2025 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -0.0x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | 0.3x | Very low |
| Q4 2024 | 0.5x | Very low |
NHC's net debt is about 2.1 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), after holding more cash than debt a year ago.
LLY Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 68.3 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 84.1 | Overbought |
LLY's weekly RSI is 68 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 84 (overbought).
NHC Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 50.0 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 15.5 | Oversold |
NHC's weekly RSI is 50 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 15 (oversold).
LLY PE vs Healthcare Sector
| Metric | LLY | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 46x | 26x | 79% above |
| PE % | 48 | 29 | 19 pts above |
LLY is trading at 46x earnings, a 79% premium to the Healthcare sector's median of 26x.
NHC PE vs Healthcare Sector
| Metric | NHC | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 29x | 26x | 13% above |
| PE % | 73 | 29 | 44 pts above |
NHC has the edge over LLY on valuation relative to its sector.
LLY Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $1,279.4 | 12% above |
| 20 week MA | $1,218.8 | 17% above |
| 50 week MA | $1,102.2 | 29% above |
| 100 week MA | $954.1 | 50% above |
| 200 week MA | $797.5 | 79% above |
LLY has the edge over NHC on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
NHC Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $223.3 | 5.6% below |
| 20 week MA | $222.8 | 5.4% below |
| 50 week MA | $188.1 | 12% above |
| 100 week MA | $147.3 | 43% above |
| 200 week MA | $117.5 | 79% above |
NHC has pulled back, but its long-term trend is still up: it's below its 8- and 20-week averages, but 79% above its 200-week average.
LLY Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $131.5 | $166.7 | +27% |
| 2021 | $166.7 | $273.1 | +64% |
| 2022 | $273.1 | $367.9 | +35% |
| 2023 | $367.9 | $582.9 | +58% |
| 2024 | $582.9 | $783.2 | +34% |
| 2025 | $783.2 | $1,077.8 | +38% |
| 2026 YTD | $1,077.8 | $1,427.3 | +32% |
LLY has finished every year since 2020 higher, and it's up 32% so far in 2026.
NHC Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $85.0 | $66.3 | -22% |
| 2021 | $66.3 | $67.7 | +2.2% |
| 2022 | $67.7 | $61.8 | -8.8% |
| 2023 | $61.8 | $92.4 | +50% |
| 2024 | $92.4 | $109.6 | +19% |
| 2025 | $109.6 | $138.7 | +27% |
| 2026 YTD | $138.7 | $210.8 | +52% |
NHC has the edge over LLY on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.