LLY
Eli Lilly and Company
LLY's outlook is improving, though it still trails on the overall score.
NBIX
Neurocrine Biosciences, Inc.
NBIX has a slight edge over LLY overall, supported by stronger valuation and lower modeled downside.
LLY Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| Strong | |
| Healthy |
LLY's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently healthy.
NBIX Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Strong | |
| Strong | |
| Strong | |
| Strong |
NBIX's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently strong.
LLY PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 27x | $845 | -41% |
| Forward | 30x | $1,427 | — |
| Current | 46x | $1,427 | — |
| Fair | 48x | $1,466 | +2.7% |
| Expensive | 85x | $2,612 | +83% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
LLY's PE is in its fair range at 46x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 30x next year's earnings, in its cheap range.
NBIX PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forward | 19x | $169 | — |
| Cheap | 25x | $169 | -0.3% |
| Current | 25x | $169 | — |
| Fair | 44x | $297 | +75% |
| Expensive | 145x | $981 | +479% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
NBIX has the edge over LLY in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
LLY Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
Analysts expect strong earnings and revenue growth for LLY, with profitability improving.
NBIX Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strong growth | |
| Improving | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect strong earnings and revenue growth for NBIX, with profitability improving. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
LLY Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $46.82 | +52% |
| Q3 2026 | $30.81 | +51% |
| Q2 2026 | $29.80 | +95% |
| Q1 2026 | $28.15 | +129% |
| Q4 2025 | $22.95 | +96% |
| Q3 2025 | $20.44 | +121% |
| Q2 2025 | $15.30 | +88% |
| Q1 2025 | $12.29 | +81% |
| Q4 2024 | $11.71 | +102% |
LLY has the edge over NBIX on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
NBIX Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $9.06 | +34% |
| Q3 2026 | $6.75 | +61% |
| Q2 2026 | $6.83 | +102% |
| Q1 2026 | $6.50 | +120% |
| Q4 2025 | $4.67 | +42% |
| Q3 2025 | $4.18 | +11% |
| Q2 2025 | $3.38 | +0.6% |
| Q1 2025 | $2.95 | -20% |
| Q4 2024 | $3.29 | +33% |
NBIX earned $6.75 per share over the past year, up 61% from the year before.
LLY Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $24.4B | +39% |
| Q2 2026 | $23B | +48% |
| Q1 2026 | $19.8B | +56% |
| Q4 2025 | $19.3B | +43% |
| Q3 2025 | $17.6B | +54% |
| Q2 2025 | $15.6B | +38% |
| Q1 2025 | $12.7B | +45% |
| Q4 2024 | $13.5B | +45% |
LLY has the edge over NBIX on sales, with stronger typical year-over-year growth.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 34% | -6.6 points |
| Q2 2026 | 40% | -3.3 points |
| Q1 2026 | 45% | +18 points |
| Q4 2025 | 43% | +5.6 points |
| Q3 2025 | 41% | +27 points |
| Q2 2025 | 44% | +12 points |
| Q1 2025 | 27% | -1.8 points |
| Q4 2024 | 37% | +10 points |
LLY has the edge over NBIX on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
NBIX Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1.1B | +41% |
| Q2 2026 | $959M | +39% |
| Q1 2026 | $814.5M | +42% |
| Q4 2025 | $805.5M | +28% |
| Q3 2025 | $794.9M | +28% |
| Q2 2025 | $687.5M | +16% |
| Q1 2025 | $572.6M | +11% |
| Q4 2024 | $627.7M | +22% |
NBIX's revenue has grown year over year for 21 quarters in a row: $1.1B last quarter, up 41% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 30% | -0.6 points |
| Q2 2026 | 16% | -5.4 points |
| Q1 2026 | 24% | +20 points |
| Q4 2025 | 26% | +3.6 points |
| Q3 2025 | 30% | +0.5 points |
| Q2 2025 | 21% | -3.5 points |
| Q1 2025 | 4.1% | -15 points |
| Q4 2024 | 23% | -6.6 points |
NBIX's operating margin was 30% last quarter, down 0.6 points from the same quarter a year ago.
LLY Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $8.2B | +22% |
| Q2 2026 | $7.8B | +458% |
| Q1 2026 | $3B | +1826% |
| Q4 2025 | $677.9M | -31% |
| Q3 2025 | $6.7B | +186% |
| Q2 2025 | $1.4B | +476% |
| Q1 2025 | $156.1M | -13% |
| Q4 2024 | $977.8M | +$2.4B |
LLY generated $19.7B in free cash flow over the past year, up 112% from the year before.
NBIX Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $383.6M | +79% |
| Q2 2026 | $128.6M | +44% |
| Q1 2026 | $136.7M | +153% |
| Q4 2025 | $390.8M | +66% |
| Q3 2025 | $214.3M | +43% |
| Q2 2025 | $89.5M | +69% |
| Q1 2025 | $54.1M | -55% |
| Q4 2024 | $235.2M | +99% |
NBIX has the edge over LLY on cash flow, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
LLY Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | 0% | -300K shares |
| 1 year | -0.6% | -5.4M shares |
| 3 years | -0.7% | -6.4M shares |
| 5 years | -1.9% | -17.4M shares |
| Available history | -4.5% | -42.3M shares |
LLY has the edge over NBIX on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $377M |
| Q2 2026 | $1.6B |
| Q1 2026 | $2.4B |
| Q4 2025 | $1.5B |
| Q3 2025 | $708.1M |
| Q2 2025 | $692.2M |
| Q1 2025 | $1.2B |
| Q4 2024 | $2.1B |
LLY spent $5.8B buying back its own shares over the past year, up 26% from the year before.
NBIX Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +1% | +1M shares |
| 1 year | +2.6% | +2.7M shares |
| 3 years | +4.1% | +4.1M shares |
| 5 years | +7.7% | +7.5M shares |
| Available history | +8.2% | +8M shares |
NBIX has 105M diluted shares, up 2.6% from a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $92.1M |
| Q2 2026 | $12M |
| Q1 2026 | $54M |
| Q4 2025 | — |
| Q3 2025 | — |
| Q2 2025 | $17.7M |
| Q1 2025 | $150M |
NBIX spent $158M buying back its own shares over the past year.
LLY Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 1.2x | Healthy |
| Q2 2026 | 1.3x | Healthy |
| Q1 2026 | 1.2x | Healthy |
| Q4 2025 | 1.3x | Healthy |
| Q3 2025 | 1.3x | Healthy |
| Q2 2025 | 2.0x | Healthy |
| Q1 2025 | 2.3x | Moderate |
| Q4 2024 | 2.1x | Moderate |
LLY's net debt is about 1.2 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), about the same as a year ago.
NBIX Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -0.7x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | -1.1x | Net Cash |
| Q3 2025 | -0.6x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -0.5x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
NBIX has the edge over LLY on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
LLY Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 68.3 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 84.1 | Overbought |
LLY's weekly RSI is 68 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 84 (overbought).
NBIX Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 61.7 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 65.8 | Neutral |
NBIX's weekly RSI is 62 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 66 (neutral).
LLY PE vs Healthcare Sector
| Metric | LLY | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 46x | 26x | 79% above |
| PE % | 48 | 29 | 19 pts above |
LLY is trading at 46x earnings, a 79% premium to the Healthcare sector's median of 26x.
NBIX PE vs Healthcare Sector
| Metric | NBIX | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 25x | 26x | 2.9% below |
| PE % | 17 | 29 | 12 pts below |
NBIX has the edge over LLY on valuation relative to its sector.
LLY Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $1,279.4 | 12% above |
| 20 week MA | $1,218.8 | 17% above |
| 50 week MA | $1,102.2 | 29% above |
| 100 week MA | $954.1 | 50% above |
| 200 week MA | $797.5 | 79% above |
LLY is in an uptrend: it's above all five of its weekly moving averages, and 79% above its 200-week average.
NBIX Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $147.8 | 15% above |
| 20 week MA | $156.4 | 8.3% above |
| 50 week MA | $147.5 | 15% above |
| 100 week MA | $138.4 | 22% above |
| 200 week MA | $128.9 | 31% above |
NBIX is in an uptrend: it's above all five of its weekly moving averages, and 31% above its 200-week average.
LLY Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $131.5 | $166.7 | +27% |
| 2021 | $166.7 | $273.1 | +64% |
| 2022 | $273.1 | $367.9 | +35% |
| 2023 | $367.9 | $582.9 | +58% |
| 2024 | $582.9 | $783.2 | +34% |
| 2025 | $783.2 | $1,077.8 | +38% |
| 2026 YTD | $1,077.8 | $1,427.3 | +32% |
LLY has the edge over NBIX on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
NBIX Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $108.4 | $97.7 | -9.9% |
| 2021 | $97.7 | $85.1 | -13% |
| 2022 | $85.1 | $120.3 | +41% |
| 2023 | $120.3 | $131.8 | +9.5% |
| 2024 | $131.8 | $139.4 | +5.8% |
| 2025 | $139.4 | $145.3 | +4.2% |
| 2026 YTD | $145.3 | $169.4 | +17% |
NBIX has finished higher in four of the last six years. It's up 17% so far in 2026.