LLY
Eli Lilly and Company
LLY's fundamentals are strong: revenue grew 46% and it turned 23% of its revenue into free cash flow. At 46x earnings, it's trading in line with its usual 48x. Analysts expect that strong growth to continue.
MRNA
Moderna, Inc.
There isn't enough reported data to score MRNA yet.
LLY Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| Strong | |
| Healthy |
LLY's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently healthy.
MRNA Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Under pressure | |
| Under pressure | |
| Strong |
MRNA's balance sheet is currently strong, and its revenue is stable, but its profitability and cash flow are under pressure.
LLY PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 27x | $845 | -41% |
| Forward | 30x | $1,427 | — |
| Current | 46x | $1,427 | — |
| Fair | 48x | $1,466 | +2.7% |
| Expensive | 85x | $2,612 | +83% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
LLY's PE is in its fair range at 46x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 30x next year's earnings, in its cheap range.
MRNA PE Valuation
MRNA has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
LLY Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
Analysts expect strong earnings and revenue growth for LLY, with profitability improving.
MRNA Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Losses shrinking | |
| Strong growth | |
| -- | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect MRNA's losses to shrink, with revenue growing. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
LLY Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $46.82 | +52% |
| Q3 2026 | $30.81 | +51% |
| Q2 2026 | $29.80 | +95% |
| Q1 2026 | $28.15 | +129% |
| Q4 2025 | $22.95 | +96% |
| Q3 2025 | $20.44 | +121% |
| Q2 2025 | $15.30 | +88% |
| Q1 2025 | $12.29 | +81% |
| Q4 2024 | $11.71 | +102% |
LLY has the edge over MRNA on earnings quality, reporting a profit while its opponent remains loss making.
MRNA Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$7.09 | +$0.98 |
| Q2 2026 | -$7.98 | -$0.45 |
| Q1 2026 | -$8.14 | +$0.59 |
| Q4 2025 | -$7.26 | +$2.02 |
| Q3 2025 | -$8.07 | -$2.33 |
| Q2 2025 | -$7.53 | +$7.77 |
| Q1 2025 | -$8.73 | +$6.86 |
| Q4 2024 | -$9.28 | +$3.05 |
MRNA is still losing money, but far less than before: $7.09 per share over the past year, against $15.59 at its worst in early 2024.
LLY Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $24.4B | +39% |
| Q2 2026 | $23B | +48% |
| Q1 2026 | $19.8B | +56% |
| Q4 2025 | $19.3B | +43% |
| Q3 2025 | $17.6B | +54% |
| Q2 2025 | $15.6B | +38% |
| Q1 2025 | $12.7B | +45% |
| Q4 2024 | $13.5B | +45% |
LLY has the edge over MRNA on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 34% | -6.6 points |
| Q2 2026 | 40% | -3.3 points |
| Q1 2026 | 45% | +18 points |
| Q4 2025 | 43% | +5.6 points |
| Q3 2025 | 41% | +27 points |
| Q2 2025 | 44% | +12 points |
| Q1 2025 | 27% | -1.8 points |
| Q4 2024 | 37% | +10 points |
LLY has the edge over MRNA on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
MRNA Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1.3B | +29% |
| Q2 2026 | $145M | +2.1% |
| Q1 2026 | $389M | +260% |
| Q4 2025 | $678M | -30% |
| Q3 2025 | $1B | -45% |
| Q2 2025 | $142M | -41% |
| Q1 2025 | $108M | -35% |
| Q4 2024 | $966M | -66% |
MRNA's revenue is recovering but still below its 2021 peak: $1.3B last quarter, up 29% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 9.9% | +36 points |
| Q2 2026 | -562% | +77 points |
| Q1 2026 | -357% | +615 points |
| Q4 2025 | -126% | +2.6 points |
| Q3 2025 | -26% | -22 points |
| Q2 2025 | -639% | -73 points |
| Q1 2025 | -972% | -214 points |
| Q4 2024 | -129% | -129 points |
MRNA's operating margin was 9.9% last quarter, up 35 points from the same quarter a year ago.
LLY Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $8.2B | +22% |
| Q2 2026 | $7.8B | +458% |
| Q1 2026 | $3B | +1826% |
| Q4 2025 | $677.9M | -31% |
| Q3 2025 | $6.7B | +186% |
| Q2 2025 | $1.4B | +476% |
| Q1 2025 | $156.1M | -13% |
| Q4 2024 | $977.8M | +$2.4B |
LLY has the edge over MRNA on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
MRNA Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$1.6B | -$726M |
| Q2 2026 | -$563M | +$359M |
| Q1 2026 | -$692M | +$462M |
| Q4 2025 | $891M | +194% |
| Q3 2025 | -$880M | +$837M |
| Q2 2025 | -$922M | +$534M |
| Q1 2025 | -$1.2B | +$31M |
| Q4 2024 | $303M | -25% |
MRNA has burned cash in six of the last eight quarters: −$2B over the past year, against −$2.7B the year before.
LLY Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | 0% | -300K shares |
| 1 year | -0.6% | -5.4M shares |
| 3 years | -0.7% | -6.4M shares |
| 5 years | -1.9% | -17.4M shares |
| Available history | -4.5% | -42.3M shares |
LLY has the edge over MRNA on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $377M |
| Q2 2026 | $1.6B |
| Q1 2026 | $2.4B |
| Q4 2025 | $1.5B |
| Q3 2025 | $708.1M |
| Q2 2025 | $692.2M |
| Q1 2025 | $1.2B |
| Q4 2024 | $2.1B |
LLY spent $5.8B buying back its own shares over the past year, up 26% from the year before.
MRNA Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +8% | +32M shares |
| 1 year | +10% | +40M shares |
| 3 years | +13% | +49M shares |
| 5 years | -0.9% | -4M shares |
| Available history | +30% | +99.2M shares |
MRNA has 430M diluted shares, up 10% from a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q4 2024 | — |
| Q3 2024 | — |
| Q2 2024 | — |
| Q1 2024 | — |
| Q4 2023 | — |
| Q3 2023 | $1M |
| Q2 2023 | $628M |
| Q1 2023 | $526M |
LLY Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 1.2x | Healthy |
| Q2 2026 | 1.3x | Healthy |
| Q1 2026 | 1.2x | Healthy |
| Q4 2025 | 1.3x | Healthy |
| Q3 2025 | 1.3x | Healthy |
| Q2 2025 | 2.0x | Healthy |
| Q1 2025 | 2.3x | Moderate |
| Q4 2024 | 2.1x | Moderate |
LLY's net debt is about 1.2 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), about the same as a year ago.
MRNA Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2023 | -4.4x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2023 | -0.7x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2022 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q3 2022 | -0.2x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2022 | -0.2x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2022 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2021 | -0.5x | Net Cash |
| Q3 2021 | -0.7x | Net Cash |
MRNA has more cash than debt.
LLY Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 68.3 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 84.1 | Overbought |
LLY's weekly RSI is 68 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 84 (overbought).
MRNA Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 71.5 | Overbought |
| Stochastic | 85.1 | Overbought |
MRNA's weekly RSI is 71 (overbought) and its Stochastic is 85 (overbought).
LLY PE vs Healthcare Sector
| Metric | LLY | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 46x | 26x | 79% above |
| PE % | 48 | 29 | 19 pts above |
LLY is trading at 46x earnings, a 79% premium to the Healthcare sector's median of 26x.
MRNA PE vs Healthcare Sector
| Metric | MRNA | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | N/A | 26x | — |
MRNA has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
LLY Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $1,279.4 | 12% above |
| 20 week MA | $1,218.8 | 17% above |
| 50 week MA | $1,102.2 | 29% above |
| 100 week MA | $954.1 | 50% above |
| 200 week MA | $797.5 | 79% above |
LLY is in an uptrend: it's above all five of its weekly moving averages, and 79% above its 200-week average.
MRNA Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $217.4 | 6.4% above |
| 20 week MA | $145.4 | 59% above |
| 50 week MA | $86.0 | 169% above |
| 100 week MA | $57.8 | 300% above |
| 200 week MA | $82.4 | 181% above |
MRNA has climbed back above all five of its weekly moving averages, and it's now 181% above its 200-week average.
LLY Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $131.5 | $166.7 | +27% |
| 2021 | $166.7 | $273.1 | +64% |
| 2022 | $273.1 | $367.9 | +35% |
| 2023 | $367.9 | $582.9 | +58% |
| 2024 | $582.9 | $783.2 | +34% |
| 2025 | $783.2 | $1,077.8 | +38% |
| 2026 YTD | $1,077.8 | $1,427.3 | +32% |
LLY has finished every year since 2020 higher, and it's up 32% so far in 2026.
MRNA Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $19.5 | $123.4 | +532% |
| 2021 | $123.4 | $250.0 | +103% |
| 2022 | $250.0 | $199.1 | -20% |
| 2023 | $199.1 | $99.5 | -50% |
| 2024 | $99.5 | $40.1 | -60% |
| 2025 | $40.1 | $31.2 | -22% |
| 2026 YTD | $31.2 | $231.4 | +642% |
MRNA has the edge over LLY on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.