LLY
Eli Lilly and Company
LLY has the edge over MEDP overall, supported by stronger valuation and stronger modeled upside.
MEDP
Medpace Holdings, Inc.
MEDP's outlook is improving, though it still trails on the overall score.
LLY Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| Strong | |
| Healthy |
LLY's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently healthy.
MEDP Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Strong | |
| Healthy | |
| Strong |
MEDP's profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are currently healthy, and its revenue is stable.
LLY PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 27x | $845 | -41% |
| Forward | 30x | $1,427 | — |
| Current | 46x | $1,427 | — |
| Fair | 48x | $1,466 | +2.7% |
| Expensive | 85x | $2,612 | +83% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
LLY's PE is in its fair range at 46x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 30x next year's earnings, in its cheap range.
MEDP PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 27x | $493 | -25% |
| Fair | 34x | $611 | -7% |
| Forward | 34x | $657 | — |
| Current | 36x | $657 | — |
| Expensive | 42x | $748 | +14% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
MEDP has the edge over LLY in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
LLY Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
Analysts expect strong earnings and revenue growth for LLY, with profitability improving.
MEDP Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Growth | |
| Growth | |
| Improving | |
| Limited | |
| High |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for MEDP, with profitability improving.
LLY Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $46.82 | +52% |
| Q3 2026 | $30.81 | +51% |
| Q2 2026 | $29.80 | +95% |
| Q1 2026 | $28.15 | +129% |
| Q4 2025 | $22.95 | +96% |
| Q3 2025 | $20.44 | +121% |
| Q2 2025 | $15.30 | +88% |
| Q1 2025 | $12.29 | +81% |
| Q4 2024 | $11.71 | +102% |
LLY has the edge over MEDP on earnings, with stronger typical year-over-year growth.
MEDP Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $19.28 | +7% |
| Q3 2026 | $18.02 | +26% |
| Q2 2026 | $17.04 | +27% |
| Q1 2026 | $15.89 | +21% |
| Q4 2025 | $15.28 | +21% |
| Q3 2025 | $14.30 | +25% |
| Q2 2025 | $13.45 | +27% |
| Q1 2025 | $13.10 | +34% |
| Q4 2024 | $12.63 | +42% |
MEDP's earnings per share have climbed steadily: $18.02 over the past year, up 26% from the year before, and higher year over year every quarter since late 2020.
LLY Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $24.4B | +39% |
| Q2 2026 | $23B | +48% |
| Q1 2026 | $19.8B | +56% |
| Q4 2025 | $19.3B | +43% |
| Q3 2025 | $17.6B | +54% |
| Q2 2025 | $15.6B | +38% |
| Q1 2025 | $12.7B | +45% |
| Q4 2024 | $13.5B | +45% |
LLY has the edge over MEDP on sales, with stronger typical year-over-year growth.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 34% | -6.6 points |
| Q2 2026 | 40% | -3.3 points |
| Q1 2026 | 45% | +18 points |
| Q4 2025 | 43% | +5.6 points |
| Q3 2025 | 41% | +27 points |
| Q2 2025 | 44% | +12 points |
| Q1 2025 | 27% | -1.8 points |
| Q4 2024 | 37% | +10 points |
LLY has the edge over MEDP on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
MEDP Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $716M | +8.5% |
| Q2 2026 | $707.3M | +17% |
| Q1 2026 | $706.6M | +27% |
| Q4 2025 | $708.5M | +32% |
| Q3 2025 | $659.9M | +24% |
| Q2 2025 | $603.3M | +14% |
| Q1 2025 | $558.6M | +9.3% |
| Q4 2024 | $536.6M | +7.7% |
MEDP's revenue has grown year over year every quarter since late 2020: $716M last quarter, up 8.5% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 23% | +1.6 points |
| Q2 2026 | 21% | -0.2 points |
| Q1 2026 | 20% | -0.3 points |
| Q4 2025 | 22% | -1.7 points |
| Q3 2025 | 21% | +0.4 points |
| Q2 2025 | 21% | +1 points |
| Q1 2025 | 20% | 0 points |
| Q4 2024 | 23% | +5.9 points |
MEDP's operating margin was 23% last quarter, up 1.6 points from the same quarter a year ago, near the top of its range since 2019.
LLY Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $8.2B | +22% |
| Q2 2026 | $7.8B | +458% |
| Q1 2026 | $3B | +1826% |
| Q4 2025 | $677.9M | -31% |
| Q3 2025 | $6.7B | +186% |
| Q2 2025 | $1.4B | +476% |
| Q1 2025 | $156.1M | -13% |
| Q4 2024 | $977.8M | +$2.4B |
LLY has the edge over MEDP on cash flow, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
MEDP Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $196.4M | -17% |
| Q2 2026 | $138.1M | -3% |
| Q1 2026 | $145M | +25% |
| Q4 2025 | $188.1M | +2.8% |
| Q3 2025 | $235.5M | +70% |
| Q2 2025 | $142.4M | +38% |
| Q1 2025 | $115.8M | -21% |
| Q4 2024 | $183M | +25% |
MEDP's free cash flow has been positive every quarter for seven years: $668M over the past year, down 1.4% from the year before.
LLY Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | 0% | -300K shares |
| 1 year | -0.6% | -5.4M shares |
| 3 years | -0.7% | -6.4M shares |
| 5 years | -1.9% | -17.4M shares |
| Available history | -4.5% | -42.3M shares |
LLY has 893M diluted shares, down 0.6% from a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $377M |
| Q2 2026 | $1.6B |
| Q1 2026 | $2.4B |
| Q4 2025 | $1.5B |
| Q3 2025 | $708.1M |
| Q2 2025 | $692.2M |
| Q1 2025 | $1.2B |
| Q4 2024 | $2.1B |
LLY spent $5.8B buying back its own shares over the past year, up 26% from the year before.
MEDP Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.6% | -182K shares |
| 1 year | -1.5% | -445K shares |
| 3 years | -11% | -3.4M shares |
| 5 years | -24% | -9.1M shares |
| Available history | -24% | -9.2M shares |
MEDP has the edge over LLY on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | — |
| Q2 2026 | $294.8M |
| Q1 2026 | — |
| Q4 2025 | — |
| Q3 2025 | $4.6M |
| Q2 2025 | $540.9M |
| Q1 2025 | $371.9M |
| Q4 2024 | $169.9M |
MEDP spent $295M buying back its own shares over the past year, down 73% from the year before.
LLY Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 1.2x | Healthy |
| Q2 2026 | 1.3x | Healthy |
| Q1 2026 | 1.2x | Healthy |
| Q4 2025 | 1.3x | Healthy |
| Q3 2025 | 1.3x | Healthy |
| Q2 2025 | 2.0x | Healthy |
| Q1 2025 | 2.3x | Moderate |
| Q4 2024 | 2.1x | Moderate |
LLY's net debt is about 1.2 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), about the same as a year ago.
MEDP Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -1.1x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | -0.8x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -1.1x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | -0.9x | Net Cash |
| Q3 2025 | -0.5x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -0.1x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -0.9x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | -1.4x | Net Cash |
MEDP has the edge over LLY on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
LLY Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 68.3 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 84.1 | Overbought |
LLY's weekly RSI is 68 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 84 (overbought).
MEDP Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 65.0 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 68.8 | Neutral |
MEDP's weekly RSI is 65 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 69 (neutral).
LLY PE vs Healthcare Sector
| Metric | LLY | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 46x | 26x | 79% above |
| PE % | 48 | 29 | 19 pts above |
LLY is trading at 46x earnings, a 79% premium to the Healthcare sector's median of 26x.
MEDP PE vs Healthcare Sector
| Metric | MEDP | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 36x | 26x | 41% above |
| PE % | 65 | 29 | 36 pts above |
MEDP has the edge over LLY on valuation relative to its sector.
LLY Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $1,279.4 | 12% above |
| 20 week MA | $1,218.8 | 17% above |
| 50 week MA | $1,102.2 | 29% above |
| 100 week MA | $954.1 | 50% above |
| 200 week MA | $797.5 | 79% above |
LLY is in an uptrend: it's above all five of its weekly moving averages, and 79% above its 200-week average.
MEDP Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $635.0 | 3.4% above |
| 20 week MA | $603.7 | 8.8% above |
| 50 week MA | $538.6 | 22% above |
| 100 week MA | $466.3 | 41% above |
| 200 week MA | $384.2 | 71% above |
MEDP is in an uptrend: it's above all five of its weekly moving averages, and 71% above its 200-week average.
LLY Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $131.5 | $166.7 | +27% |
| 2021 | $166.7 | $273.1 | +64% |
| 2022 | $273.1 | $367.9 | +35% |
| 2023 | $367.9 | $582.9 | +58% |
| 2024 | $582.9 | $783.2 | +34% |
| 2025 | $783.2 | $1,077.8 | +38% |
| 2026 YTD | $1,077.8 | $1,427.3 | +32% |
LLY has the edge over MEDP on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
MEDP Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $83.7 | $139.1 | +66% |
| 2021 | $139.1 | $223.4 | +61% |
| 2022 | $223.4 | $212.7 | -4.8% |
| 2023 | $212.7 | $306.5 | +44% |
| 2024 | $306.5 | $341.1 | +11% |
| 2025 | $341.1 | $567.6 | +66% |
| 2026 YTD | $567.6 | $656.8 | +16% |
MEDP has finished higher in five of the last six years, three of them by more than 50%. It's up 16% so far in 2026.