LLY
Eli Lilly and Company
LLY has the edge over MDT overall, supported by stronger modeled upside and stronger fundamentals.
MDT
Medtronic plc
MDT has slightly lower modeled downside risk, despite its lower overall score.
LLY Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| Strong | |
| Healthy |
LLY's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently healthy.
MDT Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| Stable |
MDT's revenue, profitability and cash flow are currently healthy, and its balance sheet is stable.
LLY PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 27x | $845 | -41% |
| Forward | 30x | $1,427 | — |
| Current | 46x | $1,427 | — |
| Fair | 48x | $1,466 | +2.7% |
| Expensive | 85x | $2,612 | +83% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
LLY's PE is in its fair range at 46x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 30x next year's earnings, in its cheap range.
MDT PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forward | 16x | $101 | — |
| Cheap | 24x | $98.52 | -2.4% |
| Current | 25x | $101 | — |
| Fair | 27x | $111 | +9.9% |
| Expensive | 33x | $135 | +34% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
MDT has the edge over LLY in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
LLY Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
Analysts expect strong earnings and revenue growth for LLY, with profitability improving.
MDT Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Growth | |
| Growth | |
| Improving | |
| Moderate | |
| High |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for MDT, with profitability improving.
LLY Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $46.82 | +52% |
| Q3 2026 | $30.81 | +51% |
| Q2 2026 | $29.80 | +95% |
| Q1 2026 | $28.15 | +129% |
| Q4 2025 | $22.95 | +96% |
| Q3 2025 | $20.44 | +121% |
| Q2 2025 | $15.30 | +88% |
| Q1 2025 | $12.29 | +81% |
| Q4 2024 | $11.71 | +102% |
LLY has the edge over MDT on earnings, with stronger typical year-over-year growth.
MDT Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $6.16 | +52% |
| Q3 2026 | $4.06 | +12% |
| Q2 2026 | $3.73 | +3.3% |
| Q1 2026 | $3.58 | +8.5% |
| Q4 2025 | $3.70 | +13% |
| Q3 2025 | $3.62 | +22% |
| Q2 2025 | $3.61 | +31% |
| Q1 2025 | $3.30 | +5.1% |
| Q4 2024 | $3.28 | +6.8% |
MDT's earnings per share have climbed steadily: $4.06 over the past year, up 12% from the year before, and higher year over year for nine quarters in a row.
LLY Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $24.4B | +39% |
| Q2 2026 | $23B | +48% |
| Q1 2026 | $19.8B | +56% |
| Q4 2025 | $19.3B | +43% |
| Q3 2025 | $17.6B | +54% |
| Q2 2025 | $15.6B | +38% |
| Q1 2025 | $12.7B | +45% |
| Q4 2024 | $13.5B | +45% |
LLY has the edge over MDT on sales, with stronger typical year-over-year growth.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 34% | -6.6 points |
| Q2 2026 | 40% | -3.3 points |
| Q1 2026 | 45% | +18 points |
| Q4 2025 | 43% | +5.6 points |
| Q3 2025 | 41% | +27 points |
| Q2 2025 | 44% | +12 points |
| Q1 2025 | 27% | -1.8 points |
| Q4 2024 | 37% | +10 points |
LLY has the edge over MDT on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
MDT Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $9.8B | +14% |
| Q2 2026 | $9.8B | +9.9% |
| Q1 2026 | $9B | +8.7% |
| Q4 2025 | $9B | +6.6% |
| Q3 2025 | $8.6B | +8.4% |
| Q2 2025 | $8.9B | +3.9% |
| Q1 2025 | $8.3B | +2.5% |
| Q4 2024 | $8.4B | +5.2% |
MDT's revenue has grown year over year for 14 quarters in a row: $9.8B last quarter, up 14% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 18% | +1.2 points |
| Q2 2026 | 19% | +3 points |
| Q1 2026 | 16% | -3.6 points |
| Q4 2025 | 19% | -0.2 points |
| Q3 2025 | 17% | +0.7 points |
| Q2 2025 | 16% | +3.8 points |
| Q1 2025 | 20% | +1.5 points |
| Q4 2024 | 19% | +2.2 points |
MDT's operating margin was 18% last quarter, up 1.2 points from the same quarter a year ago.
LLY Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $8.2B | +22% |
| Q2 2026 | $7.8B | +458% |
| Q1 2026 | $3B | +1826% |
| Q4 2025 | $677.9M | -31% |
| Q3 2025 | $6.7B | +186% |
| Q2 2025 | $1.4B | +476% |
| Q1 2025 | $156.1M | -13% |
| Q4 2024 | $977.8M | +$2.4B |
LLY has the edge over MDT on cash flow, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
MDT Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1.3B | +121% |
| Q2 2026 | $2.1B | +0.8% |
| Q1 2026 | $2.3B | +9.7% |
| Q4 2025 | $457M | -18% |
| Q3 2025 | $584M | +25% |
| Q2 2025 | $2.1B | -12% |
| Q1 2025 | $2.1B | -1.5% |
| Q4 2024 | $554M | +177% |
MDT generated $6.1B in free cash flow over the past year, up 16% from the year before.
LLY Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | 0% | -300K shares |
| 1 year | -0.6% | -5.4M shares |
| 3 years | -0.7% | -6.4M shares |
| 5 years | -1.9% | -17.4M shares |
| Available history | -4.5% | -42.3M shares |
LLY has the edge over MDT on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $377M |
| Q2 2026 | $1.6B |
| Q1 2026 | $2.4B |
| Q4 2025 | $1.5B |
| Q3 2025 | $708.1M |
| Q2 2025 | $692.2M |
| Q1 2025 | $1.2B |
| Q4 2024 | $2.1B |
LLY spent $5.8B buying back its own shares over the past year, up 26% from the year before.
MDT Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.2% | -3M shares |
| 1 year | -0.2% | -2M shares |
| 3 years | -3.7% | -48.7M shares |
| 5 years | -5.3% | -71.3M shares |
| Available history | -4.9% | -66.3M shares |
MDT has 1.3B diluted shares, about the same as a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $267M |
| Q2 2026 | $435M |
| Q1 2026 | $105M |
| Q4 2025 | $372M |
| Q3 2025 | $123M |
| Q2 2025 | $274M |
| Q1 2025 | $181M |
| Q4 2024 | $288M |
MDT spent $1.2B buying back its own shares over the past year, up 36% from the year before.
LLY Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 1.2x | Healthy |
| Q2 2026 | 1.3x | Healthy |
| Q1 2026 | 1.2x | Healthy |
| Q4 2025 | 1.3x | Healthy |
| Q3 2025 | 1.3x | Healthy |
| Q2 2025 | 2.0x | Healthy |
| Q1 2025 | 2.3x | Moderate |
| Q4 2024 | 2.1x | Moderate |
LLY has the edge over MDT on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
MDT Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 2.7x | Moderate |
| Q2 2026 | 2.8x | Moderate |
| Q1 2026 | 3.0x | Moderate |
| Q4 2025 | 3.0x | Elevated |
| Q3 2025 | 3.0x | Elevated |
| Q2 2025 | 3.0x | Moderate |
| Q1 2025 | 3.1x | Elevated |
| Q4 2024 | 3.4x | Elevated |
MDT's net debt is about 2.7 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), down from 3.0 years a year ago.
LLY Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 68.3 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 84.1 | Overbought |
LLY's weekly RSI is 68 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 84 (overbought).
MDT Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 65.9 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 81.3 | Overbought |
MDT's weekly RSI is 66 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 81 (overbought).
LLY PE vs Healthcare Sector
| Metric | LLY | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 46x | 26x | 79% above |
| PE % | 48 | 29 | 19 pts above |
LLY is trading at 46x earnings, a 79% premium to the Healthcare sector's median of 26x.
MDT PE vs Healthcare Sector
| Metric | MDT | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 25x | 26x | 3.8% below |
| PE % | 22 | 29 | 7 pts below |
MDT has the edge over LLY on valuation relative to its sector.
LLY Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $1,279.4 | 12% above |
| 20 week MA | $1,218.8 | 17% above |
| 50 week MA | $1,102.2 | 29% above |
| 100 week MA | $954.1 | 50% above |
| 200 week MA | $797.5 | 79% above |
LLY is in an uptrend: it's above all five of its weekly moving averages, and 79% above its 200-week average.
MDT Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $94.1 | 7.3% above |
| 20 week MA | $90.6 | 11% above |
| 50 week MA | $90.0 | 12% above |
| 100 week MA | $89.9 | 12% above |
| 200 week MA | $86.6 | 17% above |
MDT is in an uptrend: it's above all five of its weekly moving averages, and 17% above its 200-week average.
LLY Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $131.5 | $166.7 | +27% |
| 2021 | $166.7 | $273.1 | +64% |
| 2022 | $273.1 | $367.9 | +35% |
| 2023 | $367.9 | $582.9 | +58% |
| 2024 | $582.9 | $783.2 | +34% |
| 2025 | $783.2 | $1,077.8 | +38% |
| 2026 YTD | $1,077.8 | $1,427.3 | +32% |
LLY has the edge over MDT on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
MDT Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $113.4 | $114.0 | +0.6% |
| 2021 | $114.0 | $102.9 | -9.8% |
| 2022 | $102.9 | $77.5 | -25% |
| 2023 | $77.5 | $82.4 | +6.3% |
| 2024 | $82.4 | $80.7 | -2% |
| 2025 | $80.7 | $96.5 | +20% |
| 2026 YTD | $96.5 | $101.0 | +4.6% |
MDT has finished lower in three of the last six years. It's up 4.6% so far in 2026.