LLY
Eli Lilly and Company
LLY has the edge over MDGL overall, supported by stronger fundamentals and stronger modeled upside.
MDGL
Madrigal Pharmaceuticals, Inc.
MDGL's outlook is improving, though it still trails on the overall score.
LLY Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| Strong | |
| Healthy |
LLY's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently healthy.
MDGL Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Under pressure | |
| Weak | |
| Unavailable |
MDGL's revenue is currently healthy, but its profitability and cash flow are under pressure. There isn't enough data to rate its balance sheet.
LLY PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 27x | $845 | -41% |
| Forward | 30x | $1,427 | — |
| Current | 46x | $1,427 | — |
| Fair | 48x | $1,466 | +2.7% |
| Expensive | 85x | $2,612 | +83% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
LLY's PE is in its fair range at 46x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 30x next year's earnings, in its cheap range.
MDGL PE Valuation
MDGL has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year. If it returns to profit as analysts expect, today's price would be 87x next year's earnings.
LLY Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
Analysts expect strong earnings and revenue growth for LLY, with profitability improving.
MDGL Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Returning to profit | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect MDGL to return to profit, with revenue growing. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
LLY Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $46.82 | +52% |
| Q3 2026 | $30.81 | +51% |
| Q2 2026 | $29.80 | +95% |
| Q1 2026 | $28.15 | +129% |
| Q4 2025 | $22.95 | +96% |
| Q3 2025 | $20.44 | +121% |
| Q2 2025 | $15.30 | +88% |
| Q1 2025 | $12.29 | +81% |
| Q4 2024 | $11.71 | +102% |
LLY has the edge over MDGL on earnings quality, reporting a profit while its opponent remains loss making.
MDGL Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $4.89 | — |
| Q3 2026 | -$5.96 | +$6.84 |
| Q2 2026 | -$12.87 | -$0.23 |
| Q1 2026 | -$12.78 | +$5.06 |
| Q4 2025 | -$12.85 | +$9.05 |
| Q3 2025 | -$12.80 | +$12.28 |
| Q2 2025 | -$12.64 | +$12.86 |
| Q1 2025 | -$17.84 | +$5.25 |
| Q4 2024 | -$21.90 | -$1.96 |
MDGL is still losing money, but far less than before: $5.96 per share over the past year, against $25.50 at its worst in mid-2024.
LLY Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $24.4B | +39% |
| Q2 2026 | $23B | +48% |
| Q1 2026 | $19.8B | +56% |
| Q4 2025 | $19.3B | +43% |
| Q3 2025 | $17.6B | +54% |
| Q2 2025 | $15.6B | +38% |
| Q1 2025 | $12.7B | +45% |
| Q4 2024 | $13.5B | +45% |
LLY's revenue has grown year over year for 14 quarters in a row: $24.4B last quarter, up 39% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 34% | -6.6 points |
| Q2 2026 | 40% | -3.3 points |
| Q1 2026 | 45% | +18 points |
| Q4 2025 | 43% | +5.6 points |
| Q3 2025 | 41% | +27 points |
| Q2 2025 | 44% | +12 points |
| Q1 2025 | 27% | -1.8 points |
| Q4 2024 | 37% | +10 points |
LLY has the edge over MDGL on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
MDGL Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $431.3M | +50% |
| Q2 2026 | $364.3M | +71% |
| Q1 2026 | $311.3M | +127% |
| Q4 2025 | $321.1M | +211% |
| Q3 2025 | $287.3M | +362% |
| Q2 2025 | $212.8M | +1354% |
MDGL's revenue has grown year over year for 10 quarters in a row: $431M last quarter, up 50% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 13% | +53 points |
| Q2 2026 | -15% | +6.7 points |
| Q1 2026 | -30% | +28 points |
| Q4 2025 | -19% | +46 points |
| Q3 2025 | -40% | +147 points |
| Q2 2025 | -22% | +1088 points |
| Q1 2025 | -58% | N/A |
| Q4 2024 | -65% | N/A |
MDGL's operating margin was 13% last quarter, up 53 points from the same quarter a year ago, near the top of its range since 2024.
LLY Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $8.2B | +22% |
| Q2 2026 | $7.8B | +458% |
| Q1 2026 | $3B | +1826% |
| Q4 2025 | $677.9M | -31% |
| Q3 2025 | $6.7B | +186% |
| Q2 2025 | $1.4B | +476% |
| Q1 2025 | $156.1M | -13% |
| Q4 2024 | $977.8M | +$2.4B |
LLY has the edge over MDGL on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
MDGL Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $116.6M | +48% |
| Q2 2026 | $19.1M | +$66.1M |
| Q1 2026 | -$171.3M | -$82.4M |
| Q4 2025 | -$133.1M | -$28.4M |
| Q3 2025 | $79M | +$146.8M |
| Q2 2025 | -$47.1M | +$88M |
| Q1 2025 | -$88.9M | +$60.6M |
| Q4 2024 | -$104.7M | -$23.7M |
MDGL has burned cash in almost every quarter: −$169M over the past year, against −$162M the year before.
LLY Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | 0% | -300K shares |
| 1 year | -0.6% | -5.4M shares |
| 3 years | -0.7% | -6.4M shares |
| 5 years | -1.9% | -17.4M shares |
| Available history | -4.5% | -42.3M shares |
LLY has the edge over MDGL on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $377M |
| Q2 2026 | $1.6B |
| Q1 2026 | $2.4B |
| Q4 2025 | $1.5B |
| Q3 2025 | $708.1M |
| Q2 2025 | $692.2M |
| Q1 2025 | $1.2B |
| Q4 2024 | $2.1B |
LLY spent $5.8B buying back its own shares over the past year, up 26% from the year before.
MDGL Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +4% | +1.2M shares |
| 1 year | +35% | +7.8M shares |
| 3 years | +64% | +11.8M shares |
| 5 years | +82% | +13.7M shares |
| Available history | +96% | +14.9M shares |
MDGL has 30M diluted shares, up 35% from a year ago.
LLY Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 1.2x | Healthy |
| Q2 2026 | 1.3x | Healthy |
| Q1 2026 | 1.2x | Healthy |
| Q4 2025 | 1.3x | Healthy |
| Q3 2025 | 1.3x | Healthy |
| Q2 2025 | 2.0x | Healthy |
| Q1 2025 | 2.3x | Moderate |
| Q4 2024 | 2.1x | Moderate |
LLY's net debt is about 1.2 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), about the same as a year ago.
MDGL Net Leverage
MDGL's operating earnings (EBITDA) were negative over the past year, so its debt can't be measured against them.
LLY Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 68.3 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 84.1 | Overbought |
LLY's weekly RSI is 68 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 84 (overbought).
MDGL Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 37.5 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 21.0 | Neutral |
MDGL's weekly RSI is 38 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 21 (neutral).
LLY PE vs Healthcare Sector
| Metric | LLY | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 46x | 26x | 79% above |
| PE % | 48 | 29 | 19 pts above |
LLY is trading at 46x earnings, a 79% premium to the Healthcare sector's median of 26x.
MDGL PE vs Healthcare Sector
MDGL has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
LLY Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $1,279.4 | 12% above |
| 20 week MA | $1,218.8 | 17% above |
| 50 week MA | $1,102.2 | 29% above |
| 100 week MA | $954.1 | 50% above |
| 200 week MA | $797.5 | 79% above |
LLY has the edge over MDGL on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
MDGL Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $453.4 | 6.2% below |
| 20 week MA | $496.6 | 14% below |
| 50 week MA | $503.0 | 15% below |
| 100 week MA | $431.1 | 1.4% below |
| 200 week MA | $334.7 | 27% above |
MDGL has fallen below most of its moving averages, though it's still 27% above its 200-week average.
LLY Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $131.5 | $166.7 | +27% |
| 2021 | $166.7 | $273.1 | +64% |
| 2022 | $273.1 | $367.9 | +35% |
| 2023 | $367.9 | $582.9 | +58% |
| 2024 | $582.9 | $783.2 | +34% |
| 2025 | $783.2 | $1,077.8 | +38% |
| 2026 YTD | $1,077.8 | $1,427.3 | +32% |
LLY has the edge over MDGL on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
MDGL Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $93.2 | $120.1 | +29% |
| 2021 | $120.1 | $87.3 | -27% |
| 2022 | $87.3 | $273.6 | +213% |
| 2023 | $273.6 | $231.4 | -15% |
| 2024 | $231.4 | $313.1 | +35% |
| 2025 | $313.1 | $598.9 | +91% |
| 2026 YTD | $598.9 | $425.2 | -29% |
MDGL has finished higher in four of the last six years, two of them by more than 50%. It's down 29% so far in 2026.