LCID
Lucid Group, Inc.
LCID offers stronger valuation, but that advantage does not outweigh its weaker overall profile.
PKG
Packaging Corporation of America
PKG has the edge over LCID overall, supported by lower modeled downside.
LCID Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Weak | |
| Weak | |
| Unavailable |
LCID's revenue is currently healthy, but its profitability and cash flow are weak. There isn't enough data to rate its balance sheet.
PKG Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Stable | |
| Stable | |
| Healthy |
PKG's revenue and balance sheet are currently healthy, and its profitability and cash flow are stable.
LCID PE Valuation
LCID has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
PKG PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 13x | $106 | -58% |
| Forward | 18x | $251 | — |
| Fair | 20x | $165 | -34% |
| Expensive | 27x | $220 | -12% |
| Current | 31x | $251 | — |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
PKG's PE is in its expensive range at 31x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 18x next year's earnings, in its fair range.
LCID Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Losses shrinking | |
| Strong growth | |
| -- | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect LCID's losses to shrink, with revenue growing. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
PKG Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for PKG, with profitability improving. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
LCID Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$13.08 | -$2.57 |
| Q2 2026 | -$13.65 | -$2.35 |
| Q1 2026 | -$13.15 | -$1.25 |
| Q4 2025 | -$12.09 | +$0.41 |
| Q3 2025 | -$10.51 | +$2.49 |
| Q2 2025 | -$11.30 | +$0.40 |
| Q1 2025 | -$11.90 | +$0.40 |
| Q4 2024 | -$12.50 | +$1.10 |
LCID is still losing money, but less than at its worst: $13.08 per share over the past year, against $16.50 at its worst in mid-2023.
PKG Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $14.00 | +72% |
| Q3 2026 | $8.13 | -18% |
| Q2 2026 | $7.71 | -23% |
| Q1 2026 | $8.23 | -14% |
| Q4 2025 | $8.58 | -3.9% |
| Q3 2025 | $9.89 | +15% |
| Q2 2025 | $10.02 | +26% |
| Q1 2025 | $9.56 | +20% |
| Q4 2024 | $8.93 | +5.3% |
PKG has the edge over LCID on earnings quality, reporting a profit while its opponent remains loss making.
LCID Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $350.3M | +4.1% |
| Q2 2026 | $405.3M | +56% |
| Q1 2026 | $282.5M | +20% |
| Q4 2025 | $522.7M | +123% |
| Q3 2025 | $336.6M | +68% |
| Q2 2025 | $259.4M | +29% |
| Q1 2025 | $235M | +36% |
| Q4 2024 | $234.5M | +49% |
LCID has the edge over PKG on sales, with stronger typical year-over-year growth.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -245% | +35 points |
| Q2 2026 | -267% | +43 points |
| Q1 2026 | -350% | -56 points |
| Q4 2025 | -204% | +109 points |
| Q3 2025 | -280% | +105 points |
| Q2 2025 | -310% | +83 points |
| Q1 2025 | -294% | +128 points |
| Q4 2024 | -313% | +156 points |
LCID's operating margin was −245% last quarter, up 35 points from the same quarter a year ago, near the top of its range since 2020.
PKG Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $2.6B | +12% |
| Q2 2026 | $2.5B | +15% |
| Q1 2026 | $2.4B | +11% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.4B | +10% |
| Q3 2025 | $2.3B | +6% |
| Q2 2025 | $2.2B | +4.6% |
| Q1 2025 | $2.1B | +8.2% |
| Q4 2024 | $2.1B | +11% |
PKG's revenue has grown year over year for 11 quarters in a row: $2.6B last quarter, up 12% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 15% | +0.8 points |
| Q2 2026 | 12% | -3.7 points |
| Q1 2026 | 11% | -2.5 points |
| Q4 2025 | 7.1% | -7 points |
| Q3 2025 | 14% | -1 points |
| Q2 2025 | 15% | +2.1 points |
| Q1 2025 | 13% | +3.2 points |
| Q4 2024 | 14% | +0.6 points |
PKG has the edge over LCID on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
LCID Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$1B | -$84.2M |
| Q2 2026 | -$1.5B | -$463.2M |
| Q1 2026 | -$1.4B | -$849M |
| Q4 2025 | -$1.2B | -$417.1M |
| Q3 2025 | -$955.5M | -$333M |
| Q2 2025 | -$1B | -$271.6M |
| Q1 2025 | -$589.9M | +$125.1M |
| Q4 2024 | -$824.8M | -$77.6M |
LCID has burned cash in almost every quarter: −$5.2B over the past year, against −$3.4B the year before.
PKG Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $224.3M | -20% |
| Q2 2026 | $170.1M | +31% |
| Q1 2026 | $164.6M | -14% |
| Q4 2025 | $127.6M | +2.8% |
| Q3 2025 | $280.1M | +55% |
| Q2 2025 | $129.9M | +290% |
| Q1 2025 | $191M | +4% |
| Q4 2024 | $124.1M | -36% |
PKG has the edge over LCID on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
LCID Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +3.3% | +12.5M shares |
| 1 year | +26% | +82.4M shares |
| 3 years | +73% | +166M shares |
LCID has 395M diluted shares, up 26% from a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q4 2020 | $2.2M |
| Q1 2020 | — |
PKG Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | 0% | -- |
| 1 year | -0.8% | -700K shares |
| 3 years | -0.6% | -500K shares |
| 5 years | -6% | -5.7M shares |
| Available history | -5.4% | -5.1M shares |
PKG has the edge over LCID on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | — |
| Q2 2026 | — |
| Q1 2026 | $58.8M |
| Q4 2024 | — |
| Q4 2023 | — |
| Q4 2022 | $380.6M |
LCID Net Leverage
LCID's operating earnings (EBITDA) were negative over the past year, so its debt can't be measured against them.
PKG Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 1.8x | Healthy |
| Q2 2026 | 2.0x | Healthy |
| Q1 2026 | 2.0x | Healthy |
| Q4 2025 | 2.0x | Healthy |
| Q3 2025 | 1.8x | Healthy |
| Q2 2025 | 0.9x | Very low |
| Q1 2025 | 1.0x | Healthy |
| Q4 2024 | 1.1x | Healthy |
PKG's net debt is about 1.8 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), about the same as a year ago.
LCID Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 32.9 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 7.1 | Oversold |
LCID's weekly RSI is 33 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 7 (oversold).
PKG Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 58.2 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 75.0 | Neutral |
PKG's weekly RSI is 58 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 75 (neutral).
LCID PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector
LCID has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
PKG PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector
| Metric | PKG | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 31x | 18x | 71% above |
| PE % | 98 | 47 | 51 pts above |
PKG is trading at 31x earnings, a 71% premium to the Consumer Cyclical sector's median of 18x.
LCID Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $3.53 | 7.9% below |
| 20 week MA | $4.88 | 33% below |
| 50 week MA | $7.33 | 56% below |
| 100 week MA | $15.4 | 79% below |
| 200 week MA | $31.9 | 90% below |
LCID is in a downtrend: it's below all five of its weekly moving averages, and 90% below its 200-week average.
PKG Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $242.1 | 3.5% above |
| 20 week MA | $242.3 | 3.4% above |
| 50 week MA | $228.3 | 9.7% above |
| 100 week MA | $216.2 | 16% above |
| 200 week MA | $193.0 | 30% above |
PKG has the edge over LCID on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
LCID Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $98.9 | $100.4 | +1.5% |
| 2021 | $100.4 | $376.4 | +275% |
| 2022 | $376.4 | $67.0 | -82% |
| 2023 | $67.0 | $42.1 | -37% |
| 2024 | $42.1 | $32.0 | -24% |
| 2025 | $32.0 | $11.4 | -64% |
| 2026 YTD | $11.4 | $3.25 | -72% |
LCID has finished four years in a row lower, and it's down 72% so far in 2026.
PKG Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $111.8 | $136.1 | +22% |
| 2021 | $136.1 | $131.3 | -3.5% |
| 2022 | $131.3 | $128.7 | -2% |
| 2023 | $128.7 | $162.9 | +27% |
| 2024 | $162.9 | $227.1 | +39% |
| 2025 | $227.1 | $208.9 | -8% |
| 2026 YTD | $208.9 | $250.6 | +20% |
PKG has the edge over LCID on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.