PKG
Packaging Corporation of America
PKG's fundamentals are mixed, but it looks expensive: trading at 31x earnings, above its usual 20x. Analysts expect strong earnings growth, though they disagree widely on how much.
PKG Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Stable | |
| Stable | |
| Healthy |
PKG's revenue and balance sheet are currently healthy, and its profitability and cash flow are stable.
PKG PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 13x | $106 | -58% |
| Forward | 18x | $251 | — |
| Fair | 20x | $165 | -34% |
| Expensive | 27x | $220 | -12% |
| Current | 31x | $251 | — |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
PKG's PE is in its expensive range at 31x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 18x next year's earnings, in its fair range.
PKG Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for PKG, with profitability improving. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
PKG Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $14.00 | +72% |
| Q3 2026 | $8.13 | -18% |
| Q2 2026 | $7.71 | -23% |
| Q1 2026 | $8.23 | -14% |
| Q4 2025 | $8.58 | -3.9% |
| Q3 2025 | $9.89 | +15% |
| Q2 2025 | $10.02 | +26% |
| Q1 2025 | $9.56 | +20% |
| Q4 2024 | $8.93 | +5.3% |
PKG's earnings per share have fallen from their peak: $8.13 over the past year, against $11.03 in late 2022.
PKG Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $2.6B | +12% |
| Q2 2026 | $2.5B | +15% |
| Q1 2026 | $2.4B | +11% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.4B | +10% |
| Q3 2025 | $2.3B | +6% |
| Q2 2025 | $2.2B | +4.6% |
| Q1 2025 | $2.1B | +8.2% |
| Q4 2024 | $2.1B | +11% |
PKG's revenue has grown year over year for 11 quarters in a row: $2.6B last quarter, up 12% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 15% | +0.8 points |
| Q2 2026 | 12% | -3.7 points |
| Q1 2026 | 11% | -2.5 points |
| Q4 2025 | 7.1% | -7 points |
| Q3 2025 | 14% | -1 points |
| Q2 2025 | 15% | +2.1 points |
| Q1 2025 | 13% | +3.2 points |
| Q4 2024 | 14% | +0.6 points |
PKG's operating margin was 15% last quarter, up 0.8 points from the same quarter a year ago.
PKG Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $224.3M | -20% |
| Q2 2026 | $170.1M | +31% |
| Q1 2026 | $164.6M | -14% |
| Q4 2025 | $127.6M | +2.8% |
| Q3 2025 | $280.1M | +55% |
| Q2 2025 | $129.9M | +290% |
| Q1 2025 | $191M | +4% |
| Q4 2024 | $124.1M | -36% |
PKG's free cash flow has been positive every quarter for seven years: $687M over the past year, down 5.3% from the year before.
PKG Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | 0% | -- |
| 1 year | -0.8% | -700K shares |
| 3 years | -0.6% | -500K shares |
| 5 years | -6% | -5.7M shares |
| Available history | -5.4% | -5.1M shares |
PKG has 89M diluted shares, down 0.8% from a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | — |
| Q2 2026 | — |
| Q1 2026 | $58.8M |
| Q4 2024 | — |
| Q4 2023 | — |
| Q4 2022 | $380.6M |
PKG Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 1.8x | Healthy |
| Q2 2026 | 2.0x | Healthy |
| Q1 2026 | 2.0x | Healthy |
| Q4 2025 | 2.0x | Healthy |
| Q3 2025 | 1.8x | Healthy |
| Q2 2025 | 0.9x | Very low |
| Q1 2025 | 1.0x | Healthy |
| Q4 2024 | 1.1x | Healthy |
PKG's net debt is about 1.8 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), about the same as a year ago.
PKG Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 58.2 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 75.0 | Neutral |
PKG's weekly RSI is 58 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 75 (neutral).
PKG PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector
| Metric | PKG | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 31x | 18x | 71% above |
| PE % | 98 | 47 | 51 pts above |
PKG is trading at 31x earnings, a 71% premium to the Consumer Cyclical sector's median of 18x.
PKG Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $242.1 | 3.5% above |
| 20 week MA | $242.3 | 3.4% above |
| 50 week MA | $228.3 | 9.7% above |
| 100 week MA | $216.2 | 16% above |
| 200 week MA | $193.0 | 30% above |
PKG is in an uptrend: it's above all five of its weekly moving averages, and 30% above its 200-week average.
PKG Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $111.8 | $136.1 | +22% |
| 2021 | $136.1 | $131.3 | -3.5% |
| 2022 | $131.3 | $128.7 | -2% |
| 2023 | $128.7 | $162.9 | +27% |
| 2024 | $162.9 | $227.1 | +39% |
| 2025 | $227.1 | $208.9 | -8% |
| 2026 YTD | $208.9 | $250.6 | +20% |
PKG has finished lower in three of the last six years. It's up 20% so far in 2026.