LCID
Lucid Group, Inc.
LCID offers stronger modeled upside, but that advantage does not outweigh its weaker overall profile.
MUSA
Murphy USA Inc.
MUSA has the edge over LCID overall, supported by lower modeled downside and stronger fundamentals.
LCID Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Weak | |
| Weak | |
| Unavailable |
LCID's revenue is currently healthy, but its profitability and cash flow are weak. There isn't enough data to rate its balance sheet.
MUSA Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Strong | |
| Healthy | |
| Healthy | |
| Healthy |
MUSA's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently healthy.
LCID PE Valuation
LCID has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
MUSA PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 11x | $385 | -28% |
| Fair | 15x | $534 | -0.1% |
| Current | 15x | $535 | — |
| Forward | 18x | $535 | — |
| Expensive | 20x | $697 | +30% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
MUSA's PE is in its fair range at 15x. On analysts' estimates for next year's earnings, today's price would be 18x, in its expensive range.
LCID Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Losses shrinking | |
| Strong growth | |
| -- | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect LCID's losses to shrink, with revenue growing. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
MUSA Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Deteriorating | |
| Stable | |
| Growth | |
| Stable | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect MUSA's revenue to grow, with its earnings and profitability holding steady. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
LCID Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$13.08 | -$2.57 |
| Q2 2026 | -$13.65 | -$2.35 |
| Q1 2026 | -$13.15 | -$1.25 |
| Q4 2025 | -$12.09 | +$0.41 |
| Q3 2025 | -$10.51 | +$2.49 |
| Q2 2025 | -$11.30 | +$0.40 |
| Q1 2025 | -$11.90 | +$0.40 |
| Q4 2024 | -$12.50 | +$1.10 |
LCID is still losing money, but less than at its worst: $13.08 per share over the past year, against $16.50 at its worst in mid-2023.
MUSA Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $29.88 | -16% |
| Q3 2026 | $35.49 | +50% |
| Q2 2026 | $32.66 | +36% |
| Q1 2026 | $28.75 | +22% |
| Q4 2025 | $24.10 | 0% |
| Q3 2025 | $23.62 | -2.5% |
| Q2 2025 | $24.06 | -2.6% |
| Q1 2025 | $23.62 | -0.8% |
| Q4 2024 | $24.11 | -5.4% |
MUSA has the edge over LCID on earnings quality, reporting a profit while its opponent remains loss making.
LCID Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $350.3M | +4.1% |
| Q2 2026 | $405.3M | +56% |
| Q1 2026 | $282.5M | +20% |
| Q4 2025 | $522.7M | +123% |
| Q3 2025 | $336.6M | +68% |
| Q2 2025 | $259.4M | +29% |
| Q1 2025 | $235M | +36% |
| Q4 2024 | $234.5M | +49% |
LCID has the edge over MUSA on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -245% | +35 points |
| Q2 2026 | -267% | +43 points |
| Q1 2026 | -350% | -56 points |
| Q4 2025 | -204% | +109 points |
| Q3 2025 | -280% | +105 points |
| Q2 2025 | -310% | +83 points |
| Q1 2025 | -294% | +128 points |
| Q4 2024 | -313% | +156 points |
LCID's operating margin was −245% last quarter, up 35 points from the same quarter a year ago, near the top of its range since 2020.
MUSA Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $6.9B | +35% |
| Q2 2026 | $6.8B | +36% |
| Q1 2026 | $4.8B | +6.5% |
| Q4 2025 | $4.7B | +0.7% |
| Q3 2025 | $5.1B | -2.5% |
| Q2 2025 | $5B | -8.2% |
| Q1 2025 | $4.5B | -6.6% |
| Q4 2024 | $4.7B | -7.1% |
MUSA's revenue has grown year over year for four quarters in a row: $6.9B last quarter, up 35% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 3.8% | -0.2 points |
| Q2 2026 | 4.5% | +0.1 points |
| Q1 2026 | 4.3% | +2.3 points |
| Q4 2025 | 4.4% | +0.2 points |
| Q3 2025 | 4% | -0.3 points |
| Q2 2025 | 4.4% | +0.4 points |
| Q1 2025 | 1.9% | -0.2 points |
| Q4 2024 | 4.2% | -0.1 points |
MUSA has the edge over LCID on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
LCID Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$1B | -$84.2M |
| Q2 2026 | -$1.5B | -$463.2M |
| Q1 2026 | -$1.4B | -$849M |
| Q4 2025 | -$1.2B | -$417.1M |
| Q3 2025 | -$955.5M | -$333M |
| Q2 2025 | -$1B | -$271.6M |
| Q1 2025 | -$589.9M | +$125.1M |
| Q4 2024 | -$824.8M | -$77.6M |
LCID has burned cash in almost every quarter: −$5.2B over the past year, against −$3.4B the year before.
MUSA Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $193.7M | +186% |
| Q2 2026 | $123.3M | -10% |
| Q1 2026 | $221.7M | +445% |
| Q4 2025 | $128.8M | +5.8% |
| Q3 2025 | $67.7M | +3.8% |
| Q2 2025 | $137.1M | -4% |
| Q1 2025 | $40.7M | -32% |
| Q4 2024 | $121.7M | -25% |
MUSA has the edge over LCID on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
LCID Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +3.3% | +12.5M shares |
| 1 year | +26% | +82.4M shares |
| 3 years | +73% | +166M shares |
LCID has 395M diluted shares, up 26% from a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q4 2020 | $2.2M |
| Q1 2020 | — |
MUSA Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -1% | -192K shares |
| 1 year | -4.5% | -872K shares |
| 3 years | -16% | -3.4M shares |
| 5 years | -30% | -7.8M shares |
| Available history | -42% | -13.5M shares |
MUSA has the edge over LCID on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $156.2M |
| Q2 2026 | $82.3M |
| Q1 2026 | $70.5M |
| Q4 2025 | $66.9M |
| Q3 2025 | $219.2M |
| Q2 2025 | $213.8M |
| Q1 2025 | $150M |
| Q4 2024 | $128M |
MUSA spent $376M buying back its own shares over the past year, down 47% from the year before.
LCID Net Leverage
LCID's operating earnings (EBITDA) were negative over the past year, so its debt can't be measured against them.
MUSA Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 1.6x | Healthy |
| Q2 2026 | 1.7x | Healthy |
| Q1 2026 | 1.8x | Healthy |
| Q4 2025 | 2.2x | Moderate |
| Q3 2025 | 2.2x | Moderate |
| Q2 2025 | 2.0x | Moderate |
| Q1 2025 | 2.0x | Healthy |
| Q4 2024 | 1.8x | Healthy |
MUSA's net debt is about 1.6 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), down from 2.2 years a year ago.
LCID Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 32.9 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 7.1 | Oversold |
LCID's weekly RSI is 33 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 7 (oversold).
MUSA Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 50.9 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 37.4 | Neutral |
MUSA's weekly RSI is 51 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 37 (neutral).
LCID PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector
LCID has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
MUSA PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector
| Metric | MUSA | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 15x | 18x | 16% below |
| PE % | 50 | 47 | 3 pts above |
MUSA is trading at 15x earnings, a 16% discount to the Consumer Cyclical sector's median of 18x.
LCID Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $3.53 | 7.9% below |
| 20 week MA | $4.88 | 33% below |
| 50 week MA | $7.33 | 56% below |
| 100 week MA | $15.4 | 79% below |
| 200 week MA | $31.9 | 90% below |
LCID is in a downtrend: it's below all five of its weekly moving averages, and 90% below its 200-week average.
MUSA Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $528.7 | 1.1% above |
| 20 week MA | $547.2 | 2.3% below |
| 50 week MA | $503.4 | 6.2% above |
| 100 week MA | $467.6 | 14% above |
| 200 week MA | $425.8 | 26% above |
MUSA has the edge over LCID on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
LCID Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $98.9 | $100.4 | +1.5% |
| 2021 | $100.4 | $376.4 | +275% |
| 2022 | $376.4 | $67.0 | -82% |
| 2023 | $67.0 | $42.1 | -37% |
| 2024 | $42.1 | $32.0 | -24% |
| 2025 | $32.0 | $11.4 | -64% |
| 2026 YTD | $11.4 | $3.25 | -72% |
LCID has finished four years in a row lower, and it's down 72% so far in 2026.
MUSA Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $119.5 | $130.2 | +8.9% |
| 2021 | $130.2 | $191.6 | +47% |
| 2022 | $191.6 | $293.4 | +53% |
| 2023 | $293.4 | $356.6 | +22% |
| 2024 | $356.6 | $505.2 | +42% |
| 2025 | $505.2 | $405.0 | -20% |
| 2026 YTD | $405.0 | $534.7 | +32% |
MUSA has the edge over LCID on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.