MUSA
Murphy USA Inc.
MUSA's fundamentals are strong: revenue grew 20% and free cash flow grew 82%. At 15x earnings, it's trading right at its usual valuation. Analysts expect earnings to hold roughly steady, though they disagree widely on how much.
MUSA Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Strong | |
| Healthy | |
| Healthy | |
| Healthy |
MUSA's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently healthy.
MUSA PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 11x | $385 | -28% |
| Fair | 15x | $534 | -0.1% |
| Current | 15x | $535 | — |
| Forward | 18x | $535 | — |
| Expensive | 20x | $697 | +30% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
MUSA's PE is in its fair range at 15x. On analysts' estimates for next year's earnings, today's price would be 18x, in its expensive range.
MUSA Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Deteriorating | |
| Stable | |
| Growth | |
| Stable | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect MUSA's revenue to grow, with its earnings and profitability holding steady. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
MUSA Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $29.88 | -16% |
| Q3 2026 | $35.49 | +50% |
| Q2 2026 | $32.66 | +36% |
| Q1 2026 | $28.75 | +22% |
| Q4 2025 | $24.10 | 0% |
| Q3 2025 | $23.62 | -2.5% |
| Q2 2025 | $24.06 | -2.6% |
| Q1 2025 | $23.62 | -0.8% |
| Q4 2024 | $24.11 | -5.4% |
MUSA earned $35.49 per share over the past year, up 50% from the year before.
MUSA Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $6.9B | +35% |
| Q2 2026 | $6.8B | +36% |
| Q1 2026 | $4.8B | +6.5% |
| Q4 2025 | $4.7B | +0.7% |
| Q3 2025 | $5.1B | -2.5% |
| Q2 2025 | $5B | -8.2% |
| Q1 2025 | $4.5B | -6.6% |
| Q4 2024 | $4.7B | -7.1% |
MUSA's revenue has grown year over year for four quarters in a row: $6.9B last quarter, up 35% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 3.8% | -0.2 points |
| Q2 2026 | 4.5% | +0.1 points |
| Q1 2026 | 4.3% | +2.3 points |
| Q4 2025 | 4.4% | +0.2 points |
| Q3 2025 | 4% | -0.3 points |
| Q2 2025 | 4.4% | +0.4 points |
| Q1 2025 | 1.9% | -0.2 points |
| Q4 2024 | 4.2% | -0.1 points |
MUSA's operating margin was 3.8% last quarter, about level with the same quarter a year ago.
MUSA Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $193.7M | +186% |
| Q2 2026 | $123.3M | -10% |
| Q1 2026 | $221.7M | +445% |
| Q4 2025 | $128.8M | +5.8% |
| Q3 2025 | $67.7M | +3.8% |
| Q2 2025 | $137.1M | -4% |
| Q1 2025 | $40.7M | -32% |
| Q4 2024 | $121.7M | -25% |
MUSA's free cash flow has been positive every quarter for seven years: $668M over the past year, up 82% from the year before.
MUSA Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -1% | -192K shares |
| 1 year | -4.5% | -872K shares |
| 3 years | -16% | -3.4M shares |
| 5 years | -30% | -7.8M shares |
| Available history | -42% | -13.5M shares |
MUSA has 18M diluted shares, down 4.5% from a year ago, with $376M in buybacks over the past year.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $156.2M |
| Q2 2026 | $82.3M |
| Q1 2026 | $70.5M |
| Q4 2025 | $66.9M |
| Q3 2025 | $219.2M |
| Q2 2025 | $213.8M |
| Q1 2025 | $150M |
| Q4 2024 | $128M |
MUSA spent $376M buying back its own shares over the past year, down 47% from the year before.
MUSA Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 1.6x | Healthy |
| Q2 2026 | 1.7x | Healthy |
| Q1 2026 | 1.8x | Healthy |
| Q4 2025 | 2.2x | Moderate |
| Q3 2025 | 2.2x | Moderate |
| Q2 2025 | 2.0x | Moderate |
| Q1 2025 | 2.0x | Healthy |
| Q4 2024 | 1.8x | Healthy |
MUSA's net debt is about 1.6 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), down from 2.2 years a year ago.
MUSA Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 50.9 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 37.4 | Neutral |
MUSA's weekly RSI is 51 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 37 (neutral).
MUSA PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector
| Metric | MUSA | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 15x | 18x | 16% below |
| PE % | 50 | 47 | 3 pts above |
MUSA is trading at 15x earnings, a 16% discount to the Consumer Cyclical sector's median of 18x.
MUSA Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $528.7 | 1.1% above |
| 20 week MA | $547.2 | 2.3% below |
| 50 week MA | $503.4 | 6.2% above |
| 100 week MA | $467.6 | 14% above |
| 200 week MA | $425.8 | 26% above |
MUSA's trend is mixed: it's above four of its five weekly moving averages, and 26% above its 200-week average.
MUSA Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $119.5 | $130.2 | +8.9% |
| 2021 | $130.2 | $191.6 | +47% |
| 2022 | $191.6 | $293.4 | +53% |
| 2023 | $293.4 | $356.6 | +22% |
| 2024 | $356.6 | $505.2 | +42% |
| 2025 | $505.2 | $405.0 | -20% |
| 2026 YTD | $405.0 | $534.7 | +32% |
MUSA has finished higher in five of the last six years. It's up 32% so far in 2026.