KEY
KeyCorp
KEY has the edge over MS overall, supported by stronger fundamentals and stronger valuation.
MS
Morgan Stanley
MS has slightly lower modeled downside risk, despite its lower overall score.
KEY Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Strong | |
| N/A | |
| N/A |
KEY's profitability is currently strong, and its revenue is stable. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like KEY.
MS Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| N/A | |
| N/A |
MS's revenue and profitability are currently healthy. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like MS.
KEY PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 7.9x | $14.34 | -33% |
| Forward | 10x | $21.33 | — |
| Fair | 11x | $20.72 | -2.9% |
| Current | 12x | $21.33 | — |
| Expensive | 17x | $30.68 | +44% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
KEY has the edge over MS in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
MS PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 11x | $134 | -29% |
| Fair | 14x | $178 | -5.7% |
| Forward | 14x | $189 | — |
| Current | 15x | $189 | — |
| Expensive | 18x | $223 | +18% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
MS's PE is in its fair range at 15x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 14x next year's earnings.
KEY Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| High |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for KEY, with profitability improving.
MS Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Growth | |
| Growth | |
| Improving | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for MS, with profitability improving.
KEY Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $2.09 | +15% |
| Q3 2026 | $1.82 | +130% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.72 | +$1.81 |
| Q1 2026 | $1.63 | +$1.82 |
| Q4 2025 | $1.52 | +$1.84 |
| Q3 2025 | $0.79 | +7800% |
| Q2 2025 | -$0.09 | -112% |
| Q1 2025 | -$0.19 | -124% |
| Q4 2024 | -$0.32 | -136% |
KEY's earnings per share have fallen from their peak: $1.82 over the past year, against $2.63 in late 2021.
MS Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $13.39 | +6.3% |
| Q3 2026 | $12.60 | +29% |
| Q2 2026 | $12.37 | +40% |
| Q1 2026 | $11.04 | +29% |
| Q4 2025 | $10.21 | +28% |
| Q3 2025 | $9.76 | +48% |
| Q2 2025 | $8.84 | +45% |
| Q1 2025 | $8.53 | +55% |
| Q4 2024 | $7.95 | +53% |
MS has the edge over KEY on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
KEY Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $2B | +8.4% |
| Q2 2026 | $2B | +6.8% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.9B | +10% |
| Q4 2025 | $2B | +134% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.9B | +176% |
| Q2 2025 | $1.8B | +21% |
| Q1 2025 | $1.8B | +16% |
| Q4 2024 | $855M | -44% |
KEY's revenue has grown year over year for seven quarters in a row: $2B last quarter, up 8.4% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 36% | +4.2 points |
| Q2 2026 | 33% | +3.6 points |
| Q1 2026 | 34% | +4.6 points |
| Q4 2025 | 32% | +81 points |
| Q3 2025 | 32% | +106 points |
| Q2 2025 | 29% | +7.3 points |
| Q1 2025 | 29% | +11 points |
| Q4 2024 | -48% | -52 points |
KEY has the edge over MS on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
MS Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $20.3B | +12% |
| Q2 2026 | $21.3B | +27% |
| Q1 2026 | $20.6B | +16% |
| Q4 2025 | $17.9B | +10% |
| Q3 2025 | $18.2B | +18% |
| Q2 2025 | $16.8B | +12% |
| Q1 2025 | $17.7B | +17% |
| Q4 2024 | $16.2B | +26% |
MS has the edge over KEY on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 32% | -1.2 points |
| Q2 2026 | 34% | +6.9 points |
| Q1 2026 | 34% | +2.8 points |
| Q4 2025 | 32% | +2 points |
| Q3 2025 | 33% | +5.6 points |
| Q2 2025 | 28% | +0.4 points |
| Q1 2025 | 31% | +2.2 points |
| Q4 2024 | 30% | +14 points |
MS's operating margin was 32% last quarter, down 1.2 points from the same quarter a year ago.
KEY Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $684M | +86% |
| Q2 2026 | $233M | -81% |
| Q1 2026 | -$74M | +$76M |
| Q4 2025 | $673M | -61% |
| Q3 2025 | $367M | +$1.6B |
| Q2 2025 | $1.2B | +$1.4B |
| Q1 2025 | -$150M | -143% |
| Q4 2024 | $1.7B | +71% |
KEY has the edge over MS on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
MS Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$46B | -$42.7B |
| Q2 2026 | -$2.7B | -123% |
| Q1 2026 | -$7.1B | +$16.9B |
| Q4 2025 | -$2.4B | -120% |
| Q3 2025 | -$3.3B | +$14B |
| Q2 2025 | $11.8B | +368% |
| Q1 2025 | -$24B | -650% |
| Q4 2024 | $11.8B | +$29.6B |
MS's free cash flow was −$58.3B over the past year, against −$3.7B the year before. Free cash flow isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like MS.
KEY Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -1.5% | -15.7M shares |
| 1 year | -4.2% | -46.4M shares |
| 3 years | +14% | +133M shares |
| 5 years | +12% | +112M shares |
| Available history | +6.2% | +62M shares |
KEY has the edge over MS on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q4 2022 | — |
| Q4 2021 | $26M |
| Q3 2021 | $150M |
| Q2 2021 | $300M |
| Q1 2021 | $135M |
| Q4 2020 | $17M |
| Q3 2020 | — |
| Q2 2020 | — |
MS Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.2% | -3M shares |
| 1 year | -1.5% | -24M shares |
| 3 years | -4.7% | -77M shares |
| 5 years | -14% | -246M shares |
| Available history | -4.5% | -74M shares |
MS has 1.6B diluted shares, down 1.5% from a year ago.
KEY Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 2.5x | Moderate |
| Q2 2026 | 2.4x | Moderate |
| Q1 2026 | 2.6x | Moderate |
| Q4 2025 | 2.4x | Moderate |
| Q3 2025 | 3.5x | Elevated |
| Q2 2025 | 9.4x | High |
| Q1 2025 | 21.2x | High |
| Q3 2024 | 37.8x | High |
KEY has the edge over MS on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
MS Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 7.8x | High |
| Q2 2026 | 7.3x | High |
| Q1 2026 | 8.2x | High |
| Q4 2025 | 8.6x | High |
| Q3 2025 | 8.4x | High |
| Q2 2025 | 8.7x | High |
| Q1 2025 | 8.7x | High |
| Q4 2024 | 7.9x | High |
MS's net debt is about 7.8 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), down from 8.4 years a year ago. Net leverage isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like MS.
KEY Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 50.1 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 41.1 | Neutral |
KEY's weekly RSI is 50 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 41 (neutral).
MS Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 45.0 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 18.7 | Oversold |
MS's weekly RSI is 45 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 19 (oversold).
KEY PE vs Financial Services Sector
| Metric | KEY | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 12x | 13x | 10% below |
| PE % | 55 | 63 | 8 pts below |
KEY has the edge over MS on valuation relative to its sector.
MS PE vs Financial Services Sector
| Metric | MS | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 15x | 13x | 15% above |
| PE % | 59 | 63 | 4 pts below |
MS is trading at 15x earnings, a 15% premium to the Financial Services sector's median of 13x.
KEY Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $20.6 | 3.4% above |
| 20 week MA | $21.7 | 1.9% below |
| 50 week MA | $21.4 | 0.5% below |
| 100 week MA | $19.3 | 11% above |
| 200 week MA | $16.7 | 28% above |
KEY's trend is mixed: it's above three of its five weekly moving averages, and 28% above its 200-week average.
MS Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $186.5 | 1.5% above |
| 20 week MA | $203.3 | 6.9% below |
| 50 week MA | $191.9 | 1.4% below |
| 100 week MA | $164.9 | 15% above |
| 200 week MA | $129.3 | 46% above |
MS's trend is mixed: it's above three of its five weekly moving averages, and 46% above its 200-week average.
KEY Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $20.3 | $16.2 | -20% |
| 2021 | $16.2 | $22.7 | +40% |
| 2022 | $22.7 | $17.2 | -24% |
| 2023 | $17.2 | $14.4 | -16% |
| 2024 | $14.4 | $17.2 | +19% |
| 2025 | $17.2 | $21.2 | +23% |
| 2026 YTD | $21.2 | $21.3 | +0.7% |
KEY has finished lower in three of the last six years. It's up 0.7% so far in 2026.
MS Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $51.1 | $68.1 | +33% |
| 2021 | $68.1 | $99.3 | +46% |
| 2022 | $99.3 | $86.1 | -13% |
| 2023 | $86.1 | $93.3 | +8.3% |
| 2024 | $93.3 | $126.8 | +36% |
| 2025 | $126.8 | $181.9 | +43% |
| 2026 YTD | $181.9 | $189.2 | +4% |
MS has the edge over KEY on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.