JPM
JPMorgan Chase & Co.
JPM has lower modeled downside risk, despite its lower overall score.
TWFG
TWFG, Inc. Common Stock
TWFG has the edge over JPM overall, supported by stronger valuation and stronger fundamentals.
JPM Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| N/A | |
| N/A |
JPM's revenue and profitability are currently healthy. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like JPM.
TWFG Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Healthy | |
| N/A | |
| N/A |
TWFG's revenue and profitability are currently healthy. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like TWFG.
JPM PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 9.7x | $231 | -33% |
| Fair | 12x | $287 | -16% |
| Current | 14x | $343 | — |
| Forward | 14x | $343 | — |
| Expensive | 15x | $361 | +5.2% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
JPM's PE is in its expensive range at 14.4x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 13.7x next year's earnings.
TWFG PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forward | 23x | $26.72 | — |
| Cheap | 34x | $20.20 | -24% |
| Fair | 41x | $23.99 | -10% |
| Current | 45x | $26.72 | — |
| Expensive | 47x | $27.74 | +3.8% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
TWFG has the edge over JPM in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
JPM Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Growth | |
| Growth | |
| Improving | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for JPM, with profitability improving.
TWFG Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strong growth | |
| Stable | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect strong earnings and revenue growth for TWFG, with profitability holding steady. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
JPM Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $24.99 | +4.8% |
| Q3 2026 | $23.85 | +18% |
| Q2 2026 | $23.35 | +20% |
| Q1 2026 | $20.89 | +2.5% |
| Q4 2025 | $20.02 | +1.4% |
| Q3 2025 | $20.20 | +12% |
| Q2 2025 | $19.50 | +8.7% |
| Q1 2025 | $20.38 | +23% |
| Q4 2024 | $19.75 | +22% |
JPM's earnings per share have climbed steadily: $23.85 over the past year, up 18% from the year before, and higher year over year for 15 quarters in a row.
TWFG Earnings Per Share
TWFG and JPM do not have enough comparable growth data to identify a winner.
JPM Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $50.2B | +8.1% |
| Q2 2026 | $57.3B | +28% |
| Q1 2026 | $49.8B | +10% |
| Q4 2025 | $45.8B | +7.1% |
| Q3 2025 | $46.4B | +8.8% |
| Q2 2025 | $44.9B | -11% |
| Q1 2025 | $45.3B | +8.1% |
| Q4 2024 | $42.8B | +11% |
JPM's revenue has grown year over year for five quarters in a row: $50.2B last quarter, up 8.1% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 40% | -0.2 points |
| Q2 2026 | 48% | +7.3 points |
| Q1 2026 | 41% | +0.5 points |
| Q4 2025 | 37% | -3.2 points |
| Q3 2025 | 40% | +0.6 points |
| Q2 2025 | 41% | -6 points |
| Q1 2025 | 41% | -0.6 points |
| Q4 2024 | 41% | +11 points |
JPM has the edge over TWFG on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
TWFG Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $79.9M | +25% |
| Q2 2026 | $87.5M | +45% |
| Q1 2026 | $72.8M | +35% |
| Q4 2025 | $70.3M | +42% |
| Q3 2025 | $64.1M | +17% |
| Q2 2025 | $60.3M | +13% |
| Q1 2025 | $53.8M | +20% |
| Q4 2024 | $49.5M | +30% |
TWFG has the edge over JPM on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 11% | -2.8 points |
| Q2 2026 | 20% | +7.9 points |
| Q1 2026 | 17% | +6.3 points |
| Q4 2025 | 21% | +11 points |
| Q3 2025 | 14% | -0.1 points |
| Q2 2025 | 12% | -2.4 points |
| Q1 2025 | 11% | -5.7 points |
| Q4 2024 | 10% | +7.3 points |
TWFG's operating margin was 11% last quarter, down 2.8 points from the same quarter a year ago.
JPM Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $33.2B | +$78.4B |
| Q2 2026 | -$25.3B | -186% |
| Q1 2026 | -$211.8B | +$40.1B |
| Q4 2025 | $119.7B | -19% |
| Q3 2025 | -$45.2B | +$28.9B |
| Q2 2025 | $29.5B | -23% |
| Q1 2025 | -$251.8B | -$97.7B |
| Q4 2024 | $147.8B | +145% |
JPM's free cash flow was −$84.2B over the past year, against −$120B the year before. Free cash flow isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like JPM.
TWFG Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $10.4M | -30% |
| Q2 2026 | $9.3M | -2.7% |
| Q1 2026 | $22.4M | +43% |
| Q4 2025 | $13.1M | +50% |
| Q3 2025 | $14.9M | +30% |
| Q1 2025 | $15.6M | +$26.9M |
| Q4 2024 | $8.7M | +$11.7M |
| Q3 2024 | $11.5M | +73% |
TWFG has the edge over JPM on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
JPM Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.4% | -11.2M shares |
| 1 year | -3.1% | -84.6M shares |
| 3 years | -8.5% | -249M shares |
| 5 years | -11% | -322M shares |
| Available history | -17% | -547M shares |
JPM has 2.7B diluted shares, down 3.1% from a year ago, with $24.5B in buybacks over the past year.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1.1B |
| Q2 2026 | $6.8B |
| Q1 2026 | $8.3B |
| Q4 2025 | $8.3B |
| Q3 2025 | $8.3B |
| Q2 2025 | $7.5B |
| Q1 2025 | $7.5B |
| Q4 2024 | $4.3B |
JPM spent $24.5B buying back its own shares over the past year, down 11% from the year before.
TWFG Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.8% | -98.7K shares |
| 1 year | -14% | -2.1M shares |
TWFG has the edge over JPM on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | — |
| Q2 2026 | $26.3M |
| Q1 2026 | $16.6M |
| Q1 2024 | — |
| Q4 2023 | — |
| Q3 2023 | — |
| Q2 2023 | — |
| Q1 2023 | — |
JPM Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 0.5x | Very low |
| Q2 2026 | 0.5x | Very low |
| Q1 2026 | 0.6x | Very low |
| Q4 2025 | 0.5x | Very low |
| Q3 2025 | 0.6x | Very low |
| Q2 2025 | 0.5x | Very low |
| Q1 2025 | 0.5x | Very low |
| Q4 2024 | 0.4x | Very low |
JPM's net debt is less than a year of its operating earnings (EBITDA). Net leverage isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like JPM.
TWFG Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -0.9x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | -0.9x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -1.9x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | -2.8x | Net Cash |
| Q3 2025 | -3.4x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -3.9x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -4.9x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | -4.7x | Net Cash |
TWFG has the edge over JPM on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
JPM Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 54.8 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 31.5 | Neutral |
JPM's weekly RSI is 55 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 31 (neutral).
TWFG Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 53.4 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 50.3 | Neutral |
TWFG's weekly RSI is 53 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 50 (neutral).
JPM PE vs Financial Services Sector
| Metric | JPM | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 14x | 13x | 10% above |
| PE % | 76 | 63 | 13 pts above |
JPM has the edge over TWFG on valuation relative to its sector.
TWFG PE vs Financial Services Sector
| Metric | TWFG | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 45x | 13x | 248% above |
| PE % | 70 | 22 | 48 pts above |
TWFG is trading at 45x earnings, a 248% premium to the Financial Services sector's median of 13x, though its earnings don't support one.
JPM Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $336.8 | 1.8% above |
| 20 week MA | $345.3 | 0.7% below |
| 50 week MA | $323.2 | 6.1% above |
| 100 week MA | $298.9 | 15% above |
| 200 week MA | $236.6 | 45% above |
JPM has stronger trend alignment. JPM is above 4 of 5 weekly averages versus TWFG above 2 of 4.
TWFG Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $26.1 | 2.3% above |
| 20 week MA | $26.9 | 0.5% below |
| 50 week MA | $24.0 | 12% above |
| 100 week MA | $26.9 | 0.8% below |
TWFG's trend is mixed: it's above two of its four weekly moving averages, and 0.8% below its 100-week average.
JPM Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $139.1 | $124.5 | -11% |
| 2021 | $124.5 | $157.3 | +26% |
| 2022 | $157.3 | $131.3 | -17% |
| 2023 | $131.3 | $170.1 | +30% |
| 2024 | $170.1 | $241.2 | +42% |
| 2025 | $241.2 | $327.9 | +36% |
| 2026 YTD | $327.9 | $342.8 | +4.5% |
JPM has the edge over TWFG on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
TWFG Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | $22.6 | $28.9 | +28% |
| 2025 | $28.9 | $29.1 | +0.7% |
| 2026 YTD | $29.1 | $26.7 | -8.2% |
TWFG has finished every year since 2024 higher, and it's down 8.2% so far in 2026.