JPM
JPMorgan Chase & Co.
JPM has the edge over PGR overall, supported by stronger modeled upside and lower modeled downside.
PGR
The Progressive Corporation
PGR offers stronger valuation, but that advantage does not outweigh its weaker overall profile.
JPM Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| N/A | |
| N/A |
JPM's revenue and profitability are currently healthy. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like JPM.
PGR Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Healthy | |
| N/A | |
| N/A |
PGR's profitability is currently healthy, and its revenue is stable. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like PGR.
JPM PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 9.7x | $231 | -33% |
| Fair | 12x | $287 | -16% |
| Current | 14x | $343 | — |
| Forward | 14x | $343 | — |
| Expensive | 15x | $361 | +5.2% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
JPM's PE is in its expensive range at 14.4x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 13.7x next year's earnings.
PGR PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 11x | $211 | -10% |
| Current | 12x | $235 | — |
| Forward | 15x | $235 | — |
| Fair | 16x | $311 | +32% |
| Expensive | 46x | $904 | +284% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
PGR has the edge over JPM in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
JPM Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Growth | |
| Growth | |
| Improving | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
JPM has the edge over PGR on the outlook, with more favorable valuation and earnings expectations.
PGR Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly deteriorating | |
| Decline | |
| Growth | |
| Strongly weakening | |
| Moderate | |
| Low |
Analysts expect PGR's revenue to grow, but its earnings and profitability to decline. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
JPM Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $24.99 | +4.8% |
| Q3 2026 | $23.85 | +18% |
| Q2 2026 | $23.35 | +20% |
| Q1 2026 | $20.89 | +2.5% |
| Q4 2025 | $20.02 | +1.4% |
| Q3 2025 | $20.20 | +12% |
| Q2 2025 | $19.50 | +8.7% |
| Q1 2025 | $20.38 | +23% |
| Q4 2024 | $19.75 | +22% |
JPM's earnings per share have climbed steadily: $23.85 over the past year, up 18% from the year before, and higher year over year for 15 quarters in a row.
PGR Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $15.96 | -20% |
| Q3 2026 | $19.85 | +8.9% |
| Q2 2026 | $19.93 | +12% |
| Q1 2026 | $19.66 | +33% |
| Q4 2025 | $19.23 | +34% |
| Q3 2025 | $18.23 | +32% |
| Q2 2025 | $17.75 | +52% |
| Q1 2025 | $14.83 | +52% |
| Q4 2024 | $14.40 | +119% |
PGR has the edge over JPM on earnings, with stronger typical year-over-year growth.
JPM Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $50.2B | +8.1% |
| Q2 2026 | $57.3B | +28% |
| Q1 2026 | $49.8B | +10% |
| Q4 2025 | $45.8B | +7.1% |
| Q3 2025 | $46.4B | +8.8% |
| Q2 2025 | $44.9B | -11% |
| Q1 2025 | $45.3B | +8.1% |
| Q4 2024 | $42.8B | +11% |
JPM's revenue has grown year over year for five quarters in a row: $50.2B last quarter, up 8.1% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 40% | -0.2 points |
| Q2 2026 | 48% | +7.3 points |
| Q1 2026 | 41% | +0.5 points |
| Q4 2025 | 37% | -3.2 points |
| Q3 2025 | 40% | +0.6 points |
| Q2 2025 | 41% | -6 points |
| Q1 2025 | 41% | -0.6 points |
| Q4 2024 | 41% | +11 points |
JPM has the edge over PGR on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
PGR Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $23.2B | +3% |
| Q2 2026 | $23.6B | +7.3% |
| Q1 2026 | $22.2B | +8.7% |
| Q4 2025 | $22.7B | +12% |
| Q3 2025 | $22.5B | +14% |
| Q2 2025 | $22B | +21% |
| Q1 2025 | $20.4B | +18% |
| Q4 2024 | $20.3B | +20% |
PGR has the edge over JPM on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 14% | -0.8 points |
| Q2 2026 | 18% | -0.3 points |
| Q1 2026 | 16% | +0.2 points |
| Q4 2025 | 16% | +1.6 points |
| Q3 2025 | 15% | -0.2 points |
| Q2 2025 | 18% | +7.8 points |
| Q1 2025 | 16% | -1.2 points |
| Q4 2024 | 15% | -0.2 points |
PGR's operating margin was 14% last quarter, down 0.8 points from the same quarter a year ago.
JPM Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $33.2B | +$78.4B |
| Q2 2026 | -$25.3B | -186% |
| Q1 2026 | -$211.8B | +$40.1B |
| Q4 2025 | $119.7B | -19% |
| Q3 2025 | -$45.2B | +$28.9B |
| Q2 2025 | $29.5B | -23% |
| Q1 2025 | -$251.8B | -$97.7B |
| Q4 2024 | $147.8B | +145% |
JPM's free cash flow was −$84.2B over the past year, against −$120B the year before. Free cash flow isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like JPM.
PGR Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $4.4B | -14% |
| Q2 2026 | $3.5B | -12% |
| Q1 2026 | $4.3B | -15% |
| Q4 2025 | $3B | +5.2% |
| Q3 2025 | $5.1B | +13% |
| Q2 2025 | $3.9B | +23% |
| Q1 2025 | $5.1B | +21% |
| Q4 2024 | $2.9B | +23% |
PGR has the edge over JPM on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
JPM Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.4% | -11.2M shares |
| 1 year | -3.1% | -84.6M shares |
| 3 years | -8.5% | -249M shares |
| 5 years | -11% | -322M shares |
| Available history | -17% | -547M shares |
JPM has the edge over PGR on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1.1B |
| Q2 2026 | $6.8B |
| Q1 2026 | $8.3B |
| Q4 2025 | $8.3B |
| Q3 2025 | $8.3B |
| Q2 2025 | $7.5B |
| Q1 2025 | $7.5B |
| Q4 2024 | $4.3B |
JPM spent $24.5B buying back its own shares over the past year, down 11% from the year before.
PGR Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.3% | -2M shares |
| 1 year | -1% | -6M shares |
| 3 years | -0.9% | -5.3M shares |
| 5 years | -0.8% | -4.9M shares |
| Available history | -0.9% | -5M shares |
PGR has 582M diluted shares, down 1% from a year ago.
JPM Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 0.5x | Very low |
| Q2 2026 | 0.5x | Very low |
| Q1 2026 | 0.6x | Very low |
| Q4 2025 | 0.5x | Very low |
| Q3 2025 | 0.6x | Very low |
| Q2 2025 | 0.5x | Very low |
| Q1 2025 | 0.5x | Very low |
| Q4 2024 | 0.4x | Very low |
JPM's net debt is less than a year of its operating earnings (EBITDA). Net leverage isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like JPM.
PGR Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q4 2025 | -0.0x | Net Cash |
| Q3 2025 | -0.0x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -0.0x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -0.0x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | -0.0x | Net Cash |
| Q3 2024 | -0.0x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2024 | -0.0x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2024 | -0.0x | Net Cash |
PGR has more cash than debt. Net leverage isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like PGR.
JPM Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 54.8 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 31.5 | Neutral |
JPM's weekly RSI is 55 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 31 (neutral).
PGR Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 62.4 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 80.4 | Overbought |
PGR's weekly RSI is 62 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 80 (overbought).
JPM PE vs Financial Services Sector
| Metric | JPM | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 14x | 13x | 10% above |
| PE % | 76 | 63 | 13 pts above |
JPM is trading at 14x earnings, a 10% premium to the Financial Services sector's median of 13x.
PGR PE vs Financial Services Sector
| Metric | PGR | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 12x | 13x | 8.9% below |
| PE % | 28 | 63 | 35 pts below |
PGR has the edge over JPM on valuation relative to its sector.
JPM Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $336.8 | 1.8% above |
| 20 week MA | $345.3 | 0.7% below |
| 50 week MA | $323.2 | 6.1% above |
| 100 week MA | $298.9 | 15% above |
| 200 week MA | $236.6 | 45% above |
JPM's trend is mixed: it's above four of its five weekly moving averages, and 45% above its 200-week average.
PGR Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $221.8 | 6.2% above |
| 20 week MA | $219.2 | 7.4% above |
| 50 week MA | $211.9 | 11% above |
| 100 week MA | $232.6 | 1.3% above |
| 200 week MA | $206.3 | 14% above |
PGR has the edge over JPM on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
JPM Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $139.1 | $124.5 | -11% |
| 2021 | $124.5 | $157.3 | +26% |
| 2022 | $157.3 | $131.3 | -17% |
| 2023 | $131.3 | $170.1 | +30% |
| 2024 | $170.1 | $241.2 | +42% |
| 2025 | $241.2 | $327.9 | +36% |
| 2026 YTD | $327.9 | $342.8 | +4.5% |
JPM has the edge over PGR on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
PGR Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $72.2 | $98.3 | +36% |
| 2021 | $98.3 | $101.3 | +3% |
| 2022 | $101.3 | $129.4 | +28% |
| 2023 | $129.4 | $159.3 | +23% |
| 2024 | $159.3 | $241.0 | +51% |
| 2025 | $241.0 | $227.1 | -5.8% |
| 2026 YTD | $227.1 | $235.5 | +3.7% |
PGR has finished higher in five of the last six years. It's up 3.7% so far in 2026.