JPM
JPMorgan Chase & Co.
JPM has lower modeled downside risk, despite its lower overall score.
OBT
Orange County Bancorp, Inc.
OBT has the edge over JPM overall, supported by stronger valuation and stronger fundamentals.
JPM Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| N/A | |
| N/A |
JPM's revenue and profitability are currently healthy. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like JPM.
OBT Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Strong | |
| N/A | |
| N/A |
OBT's profitability is currently strong, and its revenue is stable. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like OBT.
JPM PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 9.7x | $231 | -33% |
| Fair | 12x | $287 | -16% |
| Current | 14x | $343 | — |
| Forward | 14x | $343 | — |
| Expensive | 15x | $361 | +5.2% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
JPM's PE is in its expensive range at 14.4x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 13.7x next year's earnings.
OBT PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 8.9x | $33.19 | -17% |
| Fair | 10x | $37.40 | -6.2% |
| Current | 11x | $39.86 | — |
| Forward | 11x | $39.86 | — |
| Expensive | 12x | $43.61 | +9.4% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
OBT has the edge over JPM in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
JPM Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Growth | |
| Growth | |
| Improving | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for JPM, with profitability improving.
OBT Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Growth | |
| Growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| High |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for OBT, with profitability improving.
JPM Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $24.99 | +4.8% |
| Q3 2026 | $23.85 | +18% |
| Q2 2026 | $23.35 | +20% |
| Q1 2026 | $20.89 | +2.5% |
| Q4 2025 | $20.02 | +1.4% |
| Q3 2025 | $20.20 | +12% |
| Q2 2025 | $19.50 | +8.7% |
| Q1 2025 | $20.38 | +23% |
| Q4 2024 | $19.75 | +22% |
JPM's earnings per share have climbed steadily: $23.85 over the past year, up 18% from the year before, and higher year over year for 15 quarters in a row.
OBT Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $3.65 | -2.3% |
| Q3 2026 | $3.74 | +24% |
| Q2 2026 | $3.56 | +39% |
| Q1 2026 | $3.41 | +41% |
| Q4 2025 | $3.33 | +35% |
| Q3 2025 | $3.02 | +18% |
| Q2 2025 | $2.56 | -17% |
| Q1 2025 | $2.42 | -23% |
| Q4 2024 | $2.47 | -5.7% |
OBT earned $3.74 per share over the past year, up 24% from the year before.
JPM Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $50.2B | +8.1% |
| Q2 2026 | $57.3B | +28% |
| Q1 2026 | $49.8B | +10% |
| Q4 2025 | $45.8B | +7.1% |
| Q3 2025 | $46.4B | +8.8% |
| Q2 2025 | $44.9B | -11% |
| Q1 2025 | $45.3B | +8.1% |
| Q4 2024 | $42.8B | +11% |
JPM's revenue has grown year over year for five quarters in a row: $50.2B last quarter, up 8.1% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 40% | -0.2 points |
| Q2 2026 | 48% | +7.3 points |
| Q1 2026 | 41% | +0.5 points |
| Q4 2025 | 37% | -3.2 points |
| Q3 2025 | 40% | +0.6 points |
| Q2 2025 | 41% | -6 points |
| Q1 2025 | 41% | -0.6 points |
| Q4 2024 | 41% | +11 points |
JPM's operating margin was 40% last quarter, about level with the same quarter a year ago.
OBT Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $35.3M | +4.6% |
| Q2 2026 | $27.8M | -14% |
| Q1 2026 | $32.1M | +15% |
| Q4 2025 | $33M | +21% |
| Q3 2025 | $33.7M | +24% |
| Q2 2025 | $32.5M | +16% |
| Q1 2025 | $28M | +11% |
| Q4 2024 | $27.4M | +5.8% |
OBT has the edge over JPM on sales, with stronger typical year-over-year growth.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 49% | +10 points |
| Q2 2026 | 42% | -0.3 points |
| Q1 2026 | 45% | +5.1 points |
| Q4 2025 | 41% | +8.6 points |
| Q3 2025 | 39% | +24 points |
| Q2 2025 | 42% | +5.2 points |
| Q1 2025 | 40% | -5.6 points |
| Q4 2024 | 33% | -8.6 points |
OBT has the edge over JPM on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
JPM Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $33.2B | +$78.4B |
| Q2 2026 | -$25.3B | -186% |
| Q1 2026 | -$211.8B | +$40.1B |
| Q4 2025 | $119.7B | -19% |
| Q3 2025 | -$45.2B | +$28.9B |
| Q2 2025 | $29.5B | -23% |
| Q1 2025 | -$251.8B | -$97.7B |
| Q4 2024 | $147.8B | +145% |
JPM's free cash flow was −$84.2B over the past year, against −$120B the year before. Free cash flow isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like JPM.
OBT Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $26.5M | -11% |
| Q2 2026 | $12.3M | +$18M |
| Q1 2026 | $9.7M | +123% |
| Q4 2025 | $13.1M | +11% |
| Q3 2025 | $29.6M | +197% |
| Q2 2025 | -$5.7M | -162% |
| Q1 2025 | $4.3M | +117% |
| Q4 2024 | $11.7M | -24% |
OBT has the edge over JPM on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
JPM Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.4% | -11.2M shares |
| 1 year | -3.1% | -84.6M shares |
| 3 years | -8.5% | -249M shares |
| 5 years | -11% | -322M shares |
| Available history | -17% | -547M shares |
JPM has the edge over OBT on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1.1B |
| Q2 2026 | $6.8B |
| Q1 2026 | $8.3B |
| Q4 2025 | $8.3B |
| Q3 2025 | $8.3B |
| Q2 2025 | $7.5B |
| Q1 2025 | $7.5B |
| Q4 2024 | $4.3B |
JPM spent $24.5B buying back its own shares over the past year, down 11% from the year before.
OBT Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | 0% | +2.2K shares |
| 1 year | +0.3% | +45.7K shares |
| 3 years | +19% | +2.1M shares |
| 5 years | +27% | +2.9M shares |
OBT has 13M diluted shares, about the same as a year ago.
JPM Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 0.5x | Very low |
| Q2 2026 | 0.5x | Very low |
| Q1 2026 | 0.6x | Very low |
| Q4 2025 | 0.5x | Very low |
| Q3 2025 | 0.6x | Very low |
| Q2 2025 | 0.5x | Very low |
| Q1 2025 | 0.5x | Very low |
| Q4 2024 | 0.4x | Very low |
JPM's net debt is less than a year of its operating earnings (EBITDA). Net leverage isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like JPM.
OBT Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -3.7x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | -5.7x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -4.1x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | -3.4x | Net Cash |
| Q3 2025 | -3.4x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -3.9x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -4.0x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | -0.5x | Net Cash |
OBT has the edge over JPM on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
JPM Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 54.8 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 31.5 | Neutral |
JPM's weekly RSI is 55 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 31 (neutral).
OBT Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 66.4 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 70.7 | Neutral |
OBT's weekly RSI is 66 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 71 (neutral).
JPM PE vs Financial Services Sector
| Metric | JPM | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 14x | 13x | 10% above |
| PE % | 76 | 63 | 13 pts above |
JPM is trading at 14x earnings, a 10% premium to the Financial Services sector's median of 13x.
OBT PE vs Financial Services Sector
| Metric | OBT | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 11x | 13x | 18% below |
| PE % | 67 | 63 | 4 pts above |
OBT has the edge over JPM on valuation relative to its sector.
JPM Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $336.8 | 1.8% above |
| 20 week MA | $345.3 | 0.7% below |
| 50 week MA | $323.2 | 6.1% above |
| 100 week MA | $298.9 | 15% above |
| 200 week MA | $236.6 | 45% above |
JPM's trend is mixed: it's above four of its five weekly moving averages, and 45% above its 200-week average.
OBT Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $38.3 | 4.2% above |
| 20 week MA | $38.2 | 4.4% above |
| 50 week MA | $34.9 | 14% above |
| 100 week MA | $30.2 | 32% above |
| 200 week MA | $27.1 | 47% above |
OBT has the edge over JPM on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
JPM Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $139.1 | $124.5 | -11% |
| 2021 | $124.5 | $157.3 | +26% |
| 2022 | $157.3 | $131.3 | -17% |
| 2023 | $131.3 | $170.1 | +30% |
| 2024 | $170.1 | $241.2 | +42% |
| 2025 | $241.2 | $327.9 | +36% |
| 2026 YTD | $327.9 | $342.8 | +4.5% |
JPM has finished higher in four of the last six years. It's up 4.5% so far in 2026.
OBT Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $14.7 | $13.6 | -7.3% |
| 2021 | $13.6 | $19.7 | +45% |
| 2022 | $19.7 | $23.3 | +18% |
| 2023 | $23.3 | $30.1 | +29% |
| 2024 | $30.1 | $27.4 | -8.9% |
| 2025 | $27.4 | $28.7 | +4.5% |
| 2026 YTD | $28.7 | $39.9 | +39% |
OBT has the edge over JPM on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.