JCAP

Jefferson Capital, Inc. Common Stock

There isn't enough reported data to score JCAP yet.

MS

Morgan Stanley

62
Fundamentals71/ 100
Valuation48/ 100
Upside potential73/ 100
Risk potential11/ 100

MS's fundamentals are strong: revenue grew 16% and earnings per share grew 29%. At 15x earnings, it's trading in line with its usual 14x. Analysts expect earnings growth.

JCAP Fundamentals

MetricStatus
Healthy
Healthy
N/A
N/A

JCAP's revenue and profitability are currently healthy. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like JCAP.

MS Fundamentals

MetricStatus
Healthy
Strong
N/A
N/A

MS's revenue and profitability are currently healthy. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like MS.

JCAP PE Valuation

JCAP has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.

MS PE Valuation

CHEAPFAIREXPENSIVE5.5x11x17x22x
CHEAPFAIREXPENSIVE5.5x11x17x22x
LevelPEPriceVs current
Cheap11x$134-29%
Fair14x$178-5.7%
Forward14x$189—
Current15x$189—
Expensive18x$223+18%

Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.

MS's PE is in its fair range at 15x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 14x next year's earnings.

JCAP Forward outlook

MetricOutlook
--
Growth
Growth
Stable
Limited
High

Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for JCAP, with profitability holding steady.

MS Forward outlook

MetricOutlook
Improving
Growth
Growth
Improving
Limited
Moderate

MS has the edge over JCAP on the outlook, with more favorable profitability expectations.

JCAP Risk to reward

ScenarioChangePrice
UpsideUnknown—
DownsideUnknown—

Calculated from the latest close: $19.46 on Nov 12.

There is not enough scenario data to compare JCAP and MS's risk to reward.

MS Risk to reward

ScenarioChangePrice
Upside+29%$243.85
Downside-11%$168.44

Calculated from the latest close: $189.17 on Nov 12.

There is not enough scenario data to compare JCAP and MS's risk to reward.

JCAP Earnings Per Share

Q4 2024: $1.80Q1 2025: $2.11Forward: $3.01
Q4 2024: $1.80Q1 2025: $2.11Forward: $3.01

JCAP and MS do not have enough comparable growth data to identify a winner.

MS Earnings Per Share

Q4 2023: $5.18Q1 2024: $5.50Q2 2024: $6.08Q3 2024: $6.58Q4 2024: $7.95Q1 2025: $8.53Q2 2025: $8.84Q3 2025: $9.76Q4 2025: $10.21Q1 2026: $11.04Q2 2026: $12.37Q3 2026: $12.60Forward: $13.39
Q4 2023: $5.18Q1 2024: $5.50Q2 2024: $6.08Q3 2024: $6.58Q4 2024: $7.95Q1 2025: $8.53Q2 2025: $8.84Q3 2025: $9.76Q4 2025: $10.21Q1 2026: $11.04Q2 2026: $12.37Q3 2026: $12.60Forward: $13.39
QuarterTTM EPSYoY
Forward$13.39+6.3%
Q3 2026$12.60+29%
Q2 2026$12.37+40%
Q1 2026$11.04+29%
Q4 2025$10.21+28%
Q3 2025$9.76+48%
Q2 2025$8.84+45%
Q1 2025$8.53+55%
Q4 2024$7.95+53%

MS's earnings per share have climbed steadily: $12.60 over the past year, up 29% from the year before, and higher year over year for 10 quarters in a row.

JCAP Quarterly Revenue

Q1 2024: $100MQ2 2024: $104MQ3 2024: $111MQ4 2024: $119MQ1 2025: $155MQ2 2025: $153MQ3 2025: $151MQ4 2025: $155MQ1 2026: $176MQ2 2026: $178MQ3 2026: $186M
Q1 2024: $100MQ2 2024: $104MQ3 2024: $111MQ4 2024: $119MQ1 2025: $155MQ2 2025: $153MQ3 2025: $151MQ4 2025: $155MQ1 2026: $176MQ2 2026: $178MQ3 2026: $186M
QuarterRevenueYoY
Q3 2026$185.5M+23%
Q2 2026$177.5M+16%
Q1 2026$176.4M+14%
Q4 2025$154.8M+30%
Q3 2025$150.8M+36%
Q2 2025$152.7M+47%
Q1 2025$154.9M+55%

JCAP has the edge over MS on sales, with stronger typical year-over-year growth.

MS Quarterly Revenue

Q4 2023: $12.9BQ1 2024: $15.1BQ2 2024: $15BQ3 2024: $15.4BQ4 2024: $16.2BQ1 2025: $17.7BQ2 2025: $16.8BQ3 2025: $18.2BQ4 2025: $17.9BQ1 2026: $20.6BQ2 2026: $21.3BQ3 2026: $20.3B
Q4 2023: $12.9BQ1 2024: $15.1BQ2 2024: $15BQ3 2024: $15.4BQ4 2024: $16.2BQ1 2025: $17.7BQ2 2025: $16.8BQ3 2025: $18.2BQ4 2025: $17.9BQ1 2026: $20.6BQ2 2026: $21.3BQ3 2026: $20.3B
QuarterRevenueYoY
Q3 2026$20.3B+12%
Q2 2026$21.3B+27%
Q1 2026$20.6B+16%
Q4 2025$17.9B+10%
Q3 2025$18.2B+18%
Q2 2025$16.8B+12%
Q1 2025$17.7B+17%
Q4 2024$16.2B+26%

MS's revenue has grown year over year for 14 quarters in a row: $20.3B last quarter, up 12% from the same quarter a year ago.

JCAP Free Cash Flow

Q1 2024: $35MQ2 2024: $48MQ3 2024: $8MQ4 2024: $72MQ1 2025: $52MQ2 2025: --Q3 2025: $63MQ4 2025: $75MQ1 2026: $40MQ2 2026: $43MQ3 2026: $53M
Q1 2024: $35MQ2 2024: $48MQ3 2024: $8MQ4 2024: $72MQ1 2025: $52MQ2 2025: --Q3 2025: $63MQ4 2025: $75MQ1 2026: $40MQ2 2026: $43MQ3 2026: $53M
QuarterFree cash flowYoY
Q3 2026$53.3M-15%
Q1 2026$39.6M-23%
Q4 2025$75.2M+5%
Q3 2025$63M+730%
Q1 2025$51.5M+46%

JCAP's free cash flow was $211M over the past year, up 9.1% from the year before. Free cash flow isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like JCAP.

MS Free Cash Flow

Q4 2023: −$17.8BQ1 2024: $4.4BQ2 2024: $2.5BQ3 2024: −$17.3BQ4 2024: $11.8BQ1 2025: −$24BQ2 2025: $11.8BQ3 2025: −$3.3BQ4 2025: −$2.4BQ1 2026: −$7.1BQ2 2026: −$2.7BQ3 2026: −$46B
Q4 2023: −$17.8BQ1 2024: $4.4BQ2 2024: $2.5BQ3 2024: −$17.3BQ4 2024: $11.8BQ1 2025: −$24BQ2 2025: $11.8BQ3 2025: −$3.3BQ4 2025: −$2.4BQ1 2026: −$7.1BQ2 2026: −$2.7BQ3 2026: −$46B
QuarterFree cash flowYoY
Q3 2026-$46B-$42.7B
Q2 2026-$2.7B-123%
Q1 2026-$7.1B+$16.9B
Q4 2025-$2.4B-120%
Q3 2025-$3.3B+$14B
Q2 2025$11.8B+368%
Q1 2025-$24B-650%
Q4 2024$11.8B+$29.6B

MS's free cash flow was −$58.3B over the past year, against −$3.7B the year before. Free cash flow isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like MS.

JCAP Total Shares

Q1 2024: 58MQ2 2024: 58MQ3 2024: 58MQ4 2024: 58MQ1 2025: 58MQ3 2025: 58MQ1 2026: 56MQ2 2026: 56MQ3 2026: 57M
Q1 2024: 58MQ2 2024: 58MQ3 2024: 58MQ4 2024: 58MQ1 2025: 58MQ3 2025: 58MQ1 2026: 56MQ2 2026: 56MQ3 2026: 57M
PeriodChange %Net change
Quarterly+3.5%+1.9M shares
1 year-1.4%-818K shares

JCAP has 57M diluted shares, down 1.4% from a year ago.

MS Total Shares

Q4 2023: 1.6BQ1 2024: 1.6BQ2 2024: 1.6BQ3 2024: 1.6BQ4 2024: 1.6BQ1 2025: 1.6BQ2 2025: 1.6BQ3 2025: 1.6BQ4 2025: 1.6BQ1 2026: 1.6BQ2 2026: 1.6BQ3 2026: 1.6B
Q4 2023: 1.6BQ1 2024: 1.6BQ2 2024: 1.6BQ3 2024: 1.6BQ4 2024: 1.6BQ1 2025: 1.6BQ2 2025: 1.6BQ3 2025: 1.6BQ4 2025: 1.6BQ1 2026: 1.6BQ2 2026: 1.6BQ3 2026: 1.6B
PeriodChange %Net change
Quarterly-0.2%-3M shares
1 year-1.5%-24M shares
3 years-4.7%-77M shares
5 years-14%-246M shares
Available history-4.5%-74M shares

MS has the edge over JCAP on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.

JCAP Net Leverage

Q4 2024: 7.4xQ1 2025: 6.3xQ2 2025: -0.2xQ3 2025: -0.2xQ4 2025: 5.8xQ1 2026: -0.1xQ2 2026: -0.1xQ3 2026: -0.1x
Q4 2024: 7.4xQ1 2025: 6.3xQ2 2025: -0.2xQ3 2025: -0.2xQ4 2025: 5.8xQ1 2026: -0.1xQ2 2026: -0.1xQ3 2026: -0.1x
QuarterNet LeverageStatus
Q3 2026-0.1xNet Cash
Q2 2026-0.1xNet Cash
Q1 2026-0.1xNet Cash
Q4 20255.8xHigh
Q3 2025-0.2xNet Cash
Q2 2025-0.2xNet Cash
Q1 20256.3xHigh
Q4 20247.4xHigh

JCAP has the edge over MS on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.

MS Net Leverage

Q4 2023: 10.7xQ1 2024: 9.8xQ2 2024: 9.8xQ3 2024: 10.2xQ4 2024: 7.9xQ1 2025: 8.7xQ2 2025: 8.7xQ3 2025: 8.4xQ4 2025: 8.6xQ1 2026: 8.2xQ2 2026: 7.3xQ3 2026: 7.8x
Q4 2023: 10.7xQ1 2024: 9.8xQ2 2024: 9.8xQ3 2024: 10.2xQ4 2024: 7.9xQ1 2025: 8.7xQ2 2025: 8.7xQ3 2025: 8.4xQ4 2025: 8.6xQ1 2026: 8.2xQ2 2026: 7.3xQ3 2026: 7.8x
QuarterNet LeverageStatus
Q3 20267.8xHigh
Q2 20267.3xHigh
Q1 20268.2xHigh
Q4 20258.6xHigh
Q3 20258.4xHigh
Q2 20258.7xHigh
Q1 20258.7xHigh
Q4 20247.9xHigh

MS's net debt is about 7.8 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), down from 8.4 years a year ago. Net leverage isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like MS.

JCAP Weekly Momentum

MetricValueStatus
RSI46.3Neutral
Stochastic16.0Oversold

JCAP's weekly RSI is 46 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 16 (oversold).

MS Weekly Momentum

MetricValueStatus
RSI45.0Neutral
Stochastic18.7Oversold

MS's weekly RSI is 45 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 19 (oversold).

JCAP PE vs Financial Services Sector

JCAP has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.

MS PE vs Financial Services Sector

MetricMSSector medianRelative
PE15x13x15% above
PE %59634 pts below

MS is trading at 15x earnings, a 15% premium to the Financial Services sector's median of 13x.

JCAP Weekly Moving Averages

Moving averageMA priceRelative
8 week MA$19.81.8% below
20 week MA$20.44.5% below
50 week MA$20.34% below

MS has stronger trend alignment. JCAP is above 0 of 3 weekly averages versus MS above 3 of 5.

MS Weekly Moving Averages

Moving averageMA priceRelative
8 week MA$186.51.5% above
20 week MA$203.36.9% below
50 week MA$191.91.4% below
100 week MA$164.915% above
200 week MA$129.346% above

MS's trend is mixed: it's above three of its five weekly moving averages, and 46% above its 200-week average.

JCAP Yearly ROI

YearStart priceEnd priceROI
2025$19.0$23.0+21%
2026 YTD$23.0$19.5-15%

JCAP has finished every year since 2025 higher, and it's down 15% so far in 2026.

MS Yearly ROI

YearStart priceEnd priceROI
2020$51.1$68.1+33%
2021$68.1$99.3+46%
2022$99.3$86.1-13%
2023$86.1$93.3+8.3%
2024$93.3$126.8+36%
2025$126.8$181.9+43%
2026 YTD$181.9$189.2+4%

MS has the edge over JCAP on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.

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