ITW
Illinois Tool Works Inc.
ITW has lower modeled downside risk, despite its lower overall score.
VRT
Vertiv Holdings Co
VRT has the edge over ITW overall, supported by stronger valuation and stronger modeled upside.
ITW Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Strong | |
| Healthy | |
| Healthy |
ITW's profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are currently healthy, and its revenue is stable.
VRT Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Strong | |
| Strong | |
| Strong | |
| Strong |
VRT's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently strong.
ITW PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 23x | $253 | -12% |
| Fair | 24x | $274 | -4.4% |
| Forward | 24x | $287 | — |
| Current | 26x | $287 | — |
| Expensive | 28x | $311 | +8.4% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
ITW's PE is in its expensive range at 26x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 24x next year's earnings, in its fair range.
VRT PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forward | 23x | $210 | — |
| Current | 39x | $210 | — |
| Cheap | 58x | $308 | +47% |
| Fair | 72x | $383 | +83% |
| Expensive | 88x | $472 | +125% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
VRT has the edge over ITW in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
ITW Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Growth | |
| Stable | |
| Improving | |
| Limited | |
| High |
Analysts expect ITW's earnings to grow and its profitability to improve, with its revenue holding steady.
VRT Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Moderate | |
| Moderate |
VRT has the edge over ITW on the outlook, with more favorable revenue expectations.
ITW Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $12.04 | +7.3% |
| Q3 2026 | $11.22 | +8.9% |
| Q2 2026 | $11.03 | -3.2% |
| Q1 2026 | $10.77 | -5.2% |
| Q4 2025 | $10.49 | -10% |
| Q3 2025 | $10.30 | -11% |
| Q2 2025 | $11.40 | +12% |
| Q1 2025 | $11.36 | +12% |
| Q4 2024 | $11.71 | +20% |
ITW earned $11.22 per share over the past year, up 8.9% from the year before.
VRT Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $9.14 | +71% |
| Q3 2026 | $5.35 | +102% |
| Q2 2026 | $4.42 | +111% |
| Q1 2026 | $3.98 | +131% |
| Q4 2025 | $3.41 | +166% |
| Q3 2025 | $2.65 | +75% |
| Q2 2025 | $2.09 | +62% |
| Q1 2025 | $1.72 | +64% |
| Q4 2024 | $1.28 | +7.6% |
VRT has the edge over ITW on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
ITW Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $4.2B | +4.4% |
| Q2 2026 | $4.3B | +6.1% |
| Q1 2026 | $4B | +4.6% |
| Q4 2025 | $4.1B | +4.1% |
| Q3 2025 | $4.1B | +2.3% |
| Q2 2025 | $4.1B | +0.6% |
| Q1 2025 | $3.8B | -3.4% |
| Q4 2024 | $3.9B | -1.3% |
ITW's revenue has grown year over year for six quarters in a row: $4.2B last quarter, up 4.4% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 28% | +0.4 points |
| Q2 2026 | 27% | +0.3 points |
| Q1 2026 | 25% | +0.6 points |
| Q4 2025 | 27% | +0.3 points |
| Q3 2025 | 27% | +0.9 points |
| Q2 2025 | 26% | +0.2 points |
| Q1 2025 | 25% | -3.6 points |
| Q4 2024 | 26% | +1.4 points |
ITW has the edge over VRT on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
VRT Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $4.3B | +61% |
| Q2 2026 | $3.3B | +24% |
| Q1 2026 | $2.6B | +30% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.9B | +23% |
| Q3 2025 | $2.7B | +29% |
| Q2 2025 | $2.6B | +35% |
| Q1 2025 | $2B | +24% |
| Q4 2024 | $2.3B | +26% |
VRT has the edge over ITW on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 23% | +3.5 points |
| Q2 2026 | 19% | +2.7 points |
| Q1 2026 | 17% | +2.3 points |
| Q4 2025 | 20% | +0.7 points |
| Q3 2025 | 19% | +1.4 points |
| Q2 2025 | 17% | -0.4 points |
| Q1 2025 | 14% | +1.9 points |
| Q4 2024 | 19% | +4.2 points |
VRT's operating margin was 23% last quarter, up 3.5 points from the same quarter a year ago, near the top of its range since 2020.
ITW Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $851M | -5.9% |
| Q2 2026 | $631M | +41% |
| Q1 2026 | $528M | +6.5% |
| Q4 2025 | $858M | -14% |
| Q3 2025 | $904M | +15% |
| Q2 2025 | $449M | -21% |
| Q1 2025 | $496M | +0.4% |
| Q4 2024 | $996M | +9.7% |
ITW's free cash flow has been positive every quarter for seven years: $2.9B over the past year, about the same as the year before.
VRT Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $654.9M | +41% |
| Q2 2026 | $926.5M | +233% |
| Q1 2026 | $654.2M | +145% |
| Q4 2025 | $885.6M | +143% |
| Q3 2025 | $463.5M | +36% |
| Q2 2025 | $277.9M | -19% |
| Q1 2025 | $266.8M | +162% |
| Q4 2024 | $364.5M | +18% |
VRT has the edge over ITW on cash flow, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
ITW Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.6% | -1.7M shares |
| 1 year | -2.2% | -6.4M shares |
| 3 years | -5.8% | -17.7M shares |
| 5 years | -9.7% | -30.6M shares |
| Available history | -12% | -40.3M shares |
ITW has the edge over VRT on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $187M |
| Q2 2026 | $750M |
| Q1 2026 | $375M |
| Q4 2025 | $375M |
| Q3 2025 | $375M |
| Q2 2025 | $375M |
| Q1 2025 | $375M |
| Q4 2024 | $375M |
ITW spent $1.7B buying back its own shares over the past year, up 12% from the year before.
VRT Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | 0% | -64.9K shares |
| 1 year | +0.4% | +1.8M shares |
| 3 years | +1.1% | +4.4M shares |
| 5 years | +10% | +36M shares |
| Available history | +63% | +152M shares |
VRT has 393M diluted shares, about the same as a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q4 2025 | — |
| Q3 2025 | — |
| Q2 2025 | — |
| Q1 2025 | — |
| Q4 2024 | — |
| Q3 2024 | — |
| Q2 2024 | — |
| Q1 2024 | $599.9M |
ITW Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 1.8x | Healthy |
| Q2 2026 | 1.9x | Healthy |
| Q1 2026 | 1.8x | Healthy |
| Q4 2025 | 1.8x | Healthy |
| Q3 2025 | 1.8x | Healthy |
| Q2 2025 | 1.9x | Healthy |
| Q1 2025 | 1.7x | Healthy |
| Q4 2024 | 1.5x | Healthy |
ITW's net debt is about 1.8 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), about the same as a year ago.
VRT Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -0.2x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | 0.1x | Very low |
| Q1 2026 | 0.3x | Very low |
| Q4 2025 | 0.6x | Very low |
| Q3 2025 | 0.8x | Very low |
| Q2 2025 | 0.7x | Very low |
| Q1 2025 | 0.8x | Very low |
| Q4 2024 | 1.0x | Healthy |
VRT has the edge over ITW on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
ITW Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 60.0 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 59.9 | Neutral |
ITW's weekly RSI is 60 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 60 (neutral).
VRT Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 43.0 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 26.4 | Neutral |
VRT's weekly RSI is 43 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 26 (neutral).
ITW PE vs Industrials Sector
| Metric | ITW | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 26x | 24x | 6.4% above |
| PE % | 67 | 58 | 9 pts above |
ITW has the edge over VRT on valuation relative to its sector.
VRT PE vs Industrials Sector
| Metric | VRT | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 39x | 24x | 63% above |
| PE % | 3 | 58 | 55 pts below |
VRT is trading at 39x earnings, a 63% premium to the Industrials sector's median of 24x.
ITW Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $274.5 | 4.5% above |
| 20 week MA | $277.0 | 3.5% above |
| 50 week MA | $269.0 | 6.6% above |
| 100 week MA | $260.5 | 10% above |
| 200 week MA | $253.6 | 13% above |
ITW has the edge over VRT on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
VRT Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $221.8 | 5.5% below |
| 20 week MA | $254.4 | 18% below |
| 50 week MA | $253.9 | 17% below |
| 100 week MA | $189.1 | 11% above |
| 200 week MA | $123.5 | 70% above |
VRT has pulled back, but its long-term trend is still up: it's below its 8-, 20- and 50-week averages, but 70% above its 200-week average.
ITW Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $181.1 | $202.4 | +12% |
| 2021 | $202.4 | $240.5 | +19% |
| 2022 | $240.5 | $222.0 | -7.7% |
| 2023 | $222.0 | $261.9 | +18% |
| 2024 | $261.9 | $256.6 | -2.1% |
| 2025 | $256.6 | $252.5 | -1.6% |
| 2026 YTD | $252.5 | $286.8 | +14% |
ITW has finished lower in three of the last six years. It's up 14% so far in 2026.
VRT Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $10.9 | $18.9 | +73% |
| 2021 | $18.9 | $24.9 | +31% |
| 2022 | $24.9 | $12.8 | -48% |
| 2023 | $12.8 | $48.0 | +275% |
| 2024 | $48.0 | $115.1 | +140% |
| 2025 | $115.1 | $167.6 | +46% |
| 2026 YTD | $167.6 | $209.6 | +25% |
VRT has the edge over ITW on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.