ITW

Illinois Tool Works Inc.

61
Fundamentals64/ 100
Valuation45/ 100
Upside potential52/ 100
Risk potential12/ 100

ITW's fundamentals are mixed: it turned 17% of its revenue into free cash flow, while its operating margin held steady at 27%. At 26x earnings, it's trading in line with its usual 24x. Analysts expect earnings growth.

ITW Fundamentals

MetricStatus
Stable
Strong
Healthy
Healthy

ITW's profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are currently healthy, and its revenue is stable.

ITW PE Valuation

CHEAPFAIREXPENSIVE9.0x18x27x36x
CHEAPFAIREXPENSIVE9.0x18x27x36x
LevelPEPriceVs current
Cheap23x$253-12%
Fair24x$274-4.4%
Forward24x$287—
Current26x$287—
Expensive28x$311+8.4%

Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.

ITW's PE is in its expensive range at 26x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 24x next year's earnings, in its fair range.

ITW Forward outlook

MetricOutlook
Improving
Growth
Stable
Improving
Limited
High

Analysts expect ITW's earnings to grow and its profitability to improve, with its revenue holding steady.

ITW Risk to reward

ScenarioChangePrice
Upside+13%$325.32
Downside-12%$251.00

Calculated from the latest close: $286.75 on Nov 12.

ITW's one-year upside and downside scenarios are about the same size: +13% against −12%.

ITW Earnings Per Share

Q4 2023: $9.74Q1 2024: $10.14Q2 2024: $10.20Q3 2024: $11.56Q4 2024: $11.71Q1 2025: $11.36Q2 2025: $11.40Q3 2025: $10.30Q4 2025: $10.49Q1 2026: $10.77Q2 2026: $11.03Q3 2026: $11.22Forward: $12.04
Q4 2023: $9.74Q1 2024: $10.14Q2 2024: $10.20Q3 2024: $11.56Q4 2024: $11.71Q1 2025: $11.36Q2 2025: $11.40Q3 2025: $10.30Q4 2025: $10.49Q1 2026: $10.77Q2 2026: $11.03Q3 2026: $11.22Forward: $12.04
QuarterTTM EPSYoY
Forward$12.04+7.3%
Q3 2026$11.22+8.9%
Q2 2026$11.03-3.2%
Q1 2026$10.77-5.2%
Q4 2025$10.49-10%
Q3 2025$10.30-11%
Q2 2025$11.40+12%
Q1 2025$11.36+12%
Q4 2024$11.71+20%

ITW earned $11.22 per share over the past year, up 8.9% from the year before.

ITW Quarterly Revenue

Q4 2023: $4BQ1 2024: $4BQ2 2024: $4BQ3 2024: $4BQ4 2024: $3.9BQ1 2025: $3.8BQ2 2025: $4.1BQ3 2025: $4.1BQ4 2025: $4.1BQ1 2026: $4BQ2 2026: $4.3BQ3 2026: $4.2B
Q4 2023: $4BQ1 2024: $4BQ2 2024: $4BQ3 2024: $4BQ4 2024: $3.9BQ1 2025: $3.8BQ2 2025: $4.1BQ3 2025: $4.1BQ4 2025: $4.1BQ1 2026: $4BQ2 2026: $4.3BQ3 2026: $4.2B
QuarterRevenueYoY
Q3 2026$4.2B+4.4%
Q2 2026$4.3B+6.1%
Q1 2026$4B+4.6%
Q4 2025$4.1B+4.1%
Q3 2025$4.1B+2.3%
Q2 2025$4.1B+0.6%
Q1 2025$3.8B-3.4%
Q4 2024$3.9B-1.3%

ITW's revenue has grown year over year for six quarters in a row: $4.2B last quarter, up 4.4% from the same quarter a year ago.

ITW Free Cash Flow

Q4 2023: $908MQ1 2024: $494MQ2 2024: $571MQ3 2024: $783MQ4 2024: $996MQ1 2025: $496MQ2 2025: $449MQ3 2025: $904MQ4 2025: $858MQ1 2026: $528MQ2 2026: $631MQ3 2026: $851M
Q4 2023: $908MQ1 2024: $494MQ2 2024: $571MQ3 2024: $783MQ4 2024: $996MQ1 2025: $496MQ2 2025: $449MQ3 2025: $904MQ4 2025: $858MQ1 2026: $528MQ2 2026: $631MQ3 2026: $851M
QuarterFree cash flowYoY
Q3 2026$851M-5.9%
Q2 2026$631M+41%
Q1 2026$528M+6.5%
Q4 2025$858M-14%
Q3 2025$904M+15%
Q2 2025$449M-21%
Q1 2025$496M+0.4%
Q4 2024$996M+9.7%

ITW's free cash flow has been positive every quarter for seven years: $2.9B over the past year, about the same as the year before.

ITW Total Shares

Q4 2023: 304MQ1 2024: 300MQ2 2024: 299MQ3 2024: 297MQ4 2024: 298MQ1 2025: 295MQ2 2025: 293MQ3 2025: 292MQ4 2025: 292MQ1 2026: 289MQ2 2026: 287MQ3 2026: 285M
Q4 2023: 304MQ1 2024: 300MQ2 2024: 299MQ3 2024: 297MQ4 2024: 298MQ1 2025: 295MQ2 2025: 293MQ3 2025: 292MQ4 2025: 292MQ1 2026: 289MQ2 2026: 287MQ3 2026: 285M
PeriodChange %Net change
Quarterly-0.6%-1.7M shares
1 year-2.2%-6.4M shares
3 years-5.8%-17.7M shares
5 years-9.7%-30.6M shares
Available history-12%-40.3M shares

ITW has 285M diluted shares, down 2.2% from a year ago, with $1.7B in buybacks over the past year.

ITW Net Leverage

Q4 2023: 1.6xQ1 2024: 1.6xQ2 2024: 1.7xQ3 2024: 1.6xQ4 2024: 1.5xQ1 2025: 1.7xQ2 2025: 1.9xQ3 2025: 1.8xQ4 2025: 1.8xQ1 2026: 1.8xQ2 2026: 1.9xQ3 2026: 1.8x
Q4 2023: 1.6xQ1 2024: 1.6xQ2 2024: 1.7xQ3 2024: 1.6xQ4 2024: 1.5xQ1 2025: 1.7xQ2 2025: 1.9xQ3 2025: 1.8xQ4 2025: 1.8xQ1 2026: 1.8xQ2 2026: 1.9xQ3 2026: 1.8x
QuarterNet LeverageStatus
Q3 20261.8xHealthy
Q2 20261.9xHealthy
Q1 20261.8xHealthy
Q4 20251.8xHealthy
Q3 20251.8xHealthy
Q2 20251.9xHealthy
Q1 20251.7xHealthy
Q4 20241.5xHealthy

ITW's net debt is about 1.8 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), about the same as a year ago.

ITW Weekly Momentum

MetricValueStatus
RSI60.0Neutral
Stochastic59.9Neutral

ITW's weekly RSI is 60 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 60 (neutral).

ITW PE vs Industrials Sector

MetricITWSector medianRelative
PE26x24x6.4% above
PE %67589 pts above

ITW is trading at 26x earnings, in line with the Industrials sector's median of 24x.

ITW Weekly Moving Averages

Moving averageMA priceRelative
8 week MA$274.54.5% above
20 week MA$277.03.5% above
50 week MA$269.06.6% above
100 week MA$260.510% above
200 week MA$253.613% above

ITW is in an uptrend: it's above all five of its weekly moving averages, and 13% above its 200-week average.

ITW Yearly ROI

YearStart priceEnd priceROI
2020$181.1$202.4+12%
2021$202.4$240.5+19%
2022$240.5$222.0-7.7%
2023$222.0$261.9+18%
2024$261.9$256.6-2.1%
2025$256.6$252.5-1.6%
2026 YTD$252.5$286.8+14%

ITW has finished lower in three of the last six years. It's up 14% so far in 2026.

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