IPGP
IPG Photonics Corporation
IPGP offers stronger modeled upside, but that advantage does not outweigh its weaker overall profile.
MSFT
Microsoft Corporation
MSFT has the edge over IPGP overall, supported by stronger valuation and stronger fundamentals.
IPGP Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Healthy | |
| Stable | |
| Strong |
IPGP's revenue, profitability and balance sheet are currently healthy, and its cash flow is stable.
MSFT Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| Healthy | |
| Strong |
MSFT's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently healthy.
IPGP PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 21x | $19.24 | -73% |
| Forward | 35x | $70.86 | — |
| Fair | 47x | $43.25 | -39% |
| Current | 76x | $70.86 | — |
| Expensive | 111x | $103 | +46% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
IPGP's PE is in its expensive range at 76x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 35x next year's earnings, in its fair range.
MSFT PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forward | 25x | $523 | — |
| Cheap | 27x | $525 | +0.4% |
| Current | 27x | $523 | — |
| Fair | 34x | $652 | +25% |
| Expensive | 37x | $711 | +36% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
MSFT has the edge over IPGP in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
IPGP Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
IPGP has the edge over MSFT on the outlook, with more favorable profitability expectations.
MSFT Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strong growth | |
| Stable | |
| Moderate | |
| High |
Analysts expect strong earnings and revenue growth for MSFT, with profitability holding steady.
IPGP Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $2.03 | +118% |
| Q3 2026 | $0.93 | +33% |
| Q2 2026 | $0.64 | +$5.45 |
| Q1 2026 | $0.68 | +$5.20 |
| Q4 2025 | $0.73 | +$4.82 |
| Q3 2025 | $0.70 | +$4.16 |
| Q2 2025 | -$4.81 | -259% |
| Q1 2025 | -$4.52 | -216% |
| Q4 2024 | -$4.09 | -188% |
IPGP's earnings per share have fallen from their peak: $0.93 over the past year, against $5.21 in early 2022.
MSFT Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $20.79 | +8.6% |
| Q3 2026 | $19.15 | +36% |
| Q2 2026 | $17.95 | +32% |
| Q1 2026 | $16.80 | +30% |
| Q4 2025 | $15.99 | +29% |
| Q3 2025 | $14.06 | +16% |
| Q2 2025 | $13.64 | +16% |
| Q1 2025 | $12.93 | +12% |
| Q4 2024 | $12.41 | +12% |
MSFT has the edge over IPGP on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
IPGP Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $287.5M | +15% |
| Q2 2026 | $278.6M | +11% |
| Q1 2026 | $265.5M | +17% |
| Q4 2025 | $274.5M | +17% |
| Q3 2025 | $250.8M | +7.6% |
| Q2 2025 | $250.7M | -2.7% |
| Q1 2025 | $227.8M | -9.6% |
| Q4 2024 | $234.3M | -22% |
IPGP's revenue is recovering but still below its 2021 peak: $288M last quarter, up 15% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 7.2% | +4.1 points |
| Q2 2026 | 1.6% | +1.6 points |
| Q1 2026 | -2.9% | -3.7 points |
| Q4 2025 | 1.2% | -4.7 points |
| Q3 2025 | 3.1% | +112 points |
| Q2 2025 | 0% | -4.6 points |
| Q1 2025 | 0.8% | -6.8 points |
| Q4 2024 | 6% | -3.7 points |
IPGP's operating margin was 7.2% last quarter, up 4.1 points from the same quarter a year ago.
MSFT Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $92.3B | +19% |
| Q2 2026 | $90B | +18% |
| Q1 2026 | $82.9B | +18% |
| Q4 2025 | $81.3B | +17% |
| Q3 2025 | $77.7B | +18% |
| Q2 2025 | $76.4B | +18% |
| Q1 2025 | $70.1B | +13% |
| Q4 2024 | $69.6B | +12% |
MSFT has the edge over IPGP on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 50% | +0.9 points |
| Q2 2026 | 45% | +0.2 points |
| Q1 2026 | 46% | +0.7 points |
| Q4 2025 | 47% | +1.6 points |
| Q3 2025 | 49% | +2.3 points |
| Q2 2025 | 45% | +1.8 points |
| Q1 2025 | 46% | +1.1 points |
| Q4 2024 | 45% | +1.9 points |
MSFT has the edge over IPGP on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
IPGP Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $28.8M | +98% |
| Q2 2026 | $17.1M | +$34.7M |
| Q1 2026 | -$21.8M | -$10.4M |
| Q4 2025 | $10.9M | -78% |
| Q3 2025 | $14.6M | -66% |
| Q2 2025 | -$17.6M | -160% |
| Q1 2025 | -$11.4M | -143% |
| Q4 2024 | $50.6M | -37% |
IPGP still generates free cash flow, though less than at its 2019 peak: $35M over the past year.
MSFT Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $18.6B | -27% |
| Q2 2026 | $19.6B | -23% |
| Q1 2026 | $15.8B | -22% |
| Q4 2025 | $5.9B | -9.3% |
| Q3 2025 | $25.7B | +33% |
| Q2 2025 | $25.6B | +9.6% |
| Q1 2025 | $20.3B | -3.2% |
| Q4 2024 | $6.5B | -29% |
MSFT's free cash flow has been positive every quarter for seven years: $60B over the past year, down 23% from the year before.
IPGP Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.2% | -72.9K shares |
| 1 year | +0.7% | +284K shares |
| 3 years | -9.6% | -4.5M shares |
| 5 years | -20% | -11M shares |
| Available history | -20% | -11M shares |
IPGP has 43M diluted shares, up 0.7% from a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $2.6M |
| Q2 2026 | — |
| Q1 2026 | — |
| Q4 2024 | $57.3M |
| Q3 2024 | $74.5M |
| Q2 2024 | $122.4M |
| Q1 2024 | $89.6M |
| Q4 2023 | $64M |
MSFT Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.1% | -7M shares |
| 1 year | -0.3% | -20M shares |
| 3 years | -0.2% | -16M shares |
| 5 years | -1.6% | -121M shares |
| Available history | -3.2% | -245M shares |
MSFT has the edge over IPGP on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $4.4B |
| Q2 2026 | $4.6B |
| Q1 2026 | $4.6B |
| Q4 2025 | $7.4B |
| Q3 2025 | $5.7B |
| Q2 2025 | $4.5B |
| Q1 2025 | $4.8B |
| Q4 2024 | $5B |
MSFT spent $21B buying back its own shares over the past year, up 5.2% from the year before.
IPGP Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -8.1x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | -5.3x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -6.8x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | -5.1x | Net Cash |
| Q3 2025 | -4.1x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2024 | -4.0x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2024 | -2.0x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2023 | -1.7x | Net Cash |
IPGP has the edge over MSFT on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
MSFT Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 0.1x | Very low |
| Q2 2026 | 0.1x | Very low |
MSFT's net debt is less than a year of its operating earnings (EBITDA).
IPGP Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 39.4 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 17.8 | Oversold |
IPGP's weekly RSI is 39 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 18 (oversold).
MSFT Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 62.1 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 68.0 | Neutral |
MSFT's weekly RSI is 62 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 68 (neutral).
IPGP PE vs Technology Sector
| Metric | IPGP | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 76x | 28x | 173% above |
| PE % | 76 | 35 | 41 pts above |
IPGP is trading at 76x earnings, a 173% premium to the Technology sector's median of 28x.
MSFT PE vs Technology Sector
| Metric | MSFT | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 27x | 28x | 2% below |
| PE % | 16 | 35 | 19 pts below |
MSFT has the edge over IPGP on valuation relative to its sector.
IPGP Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $73.9 | 4.1% below |
| 20 week MA | $82.3 | 14% below |
| 50 week MA | $97.2 | 27% below |
| 100 week MA | $84.6 | 16% below |
| 200 week MA | $90.9 | 22% below |
IPGP is in a downtrend: it's below all five of its weekly moving averages, and 22% below its 200-week average.
MSFT Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $524.7 | 0.3% below |
| 20 week MA | $484.8 | 7.9% above |
| 50 week MA | $446.9 | 17% above |
| 100 week MA | $453.8 | 15% above |
| 200 week MA | $411.5 | 27% above |
MSFT has the edge over IPGP on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
IPGP Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $143.9 | $221.0 | +54% |
| 2021 | $221.0 | $168.9 | -24% |
| 2022 | $168.9 | $92.9 | -45% |
| 2023 | $92.9 | $108.5 | +17% |
| 2024 | $108.5 | $73.4 | -32% |
| 2025 | $73.4 | $75.2 | +2.4% |
| 2026 YTD | $75.2 | $70.9 | -5.7% |
IPGP has finished lower in three of the last six years. It's down 5.7% so far in 2026.
MSFT Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $159.0 | $222.8 | +40% |
| 2021 | $222.8 | $334.7 | +50% |
| 2022 | $334.7 | $238.7 | -29% |
| 2023 | $238.7 | $376.0 | +58% |
| 2024 | $376.0 | $430.5 | +14% |
| 2025 | $430.5 | $487.7 | +13% |
| 2026 YTD | $487.7 | $523.0 | +7.2% |
MSFT has the edge over IPGP on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.