HOOD
Robinhood Markets, Inc.
HOOD has lower modeled downside risk, despite its lower overall score.
UPST
Upstart Holdings, Inc.
UPST has a slight edge over HOOD overall, supported by stronger fundamentals and stronger valuation.
HOOD Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Healthy | |
| N/A | |
| N/A |
HOOD's revenue and profitability are currently healthy. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like HOOD.
UPST Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Healthy | |
| N/A | |
| N/A |
UPST's revenue and profitability are currently healthy. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like UPST.
HOOD PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forward | 30x | $81.35 | — |
| Cheap | 37x | $78.84 | -3.1% |
| Current | 38x | $81.35 | — |
| Fair | 51x | $110 | +35% |
| Expensive | 74x | $160 | +96% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
HOOD has the edge over UPST in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
UPST PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forward | 18x | $19.15 | — |
| Cheap | 30x | $18.54 | -3.2% |
| Current | 31x | $19.15 | — |
| Fair | 75x | $46.41 | +142% |
| Expensive | 441x | $273 | +1328% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
UPST's PE is in its cheap range at 31x. On analysts' estimates for next year's earnings, today's price would be 18x.
HOOD Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Moderate | |
| Low |
HOOD has the edge over UPST on the outlook, with more favorable earnings and profitability expectations.
UPST Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Decline | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strongly weakening | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect UPST's revenue to grow, but its earnings and profitability to decline. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
HOOD Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $2.72 | +26% |
| Q3 2026 | $2.16 | -10% |
| Q2 2026 | $2.26 | +15% |
| Q1 2026 | $2.06 | +18% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.05 | +31% |
| Q3 2025 | $2.40 | +314% |
| Q2 2025 | $1.96 | +513% |
| Q1 2025 | $1.75 | +1150% |
| Q4 2024 | $1.56 | +$2.17 |
HOOD earned $2.16 per share over the past year, down 10% from the year before.
UPST Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $1.04 | +67% |
| Q3 2026 | $0.62 | +158% |
| Q2 2026 | $0.52 | +$0.58 |
| Q1 2026 | $0.41 | +$1.14 |
| Q4 2025 | $0.45 | +$1.89 |
| Q3 2025 | $0.24 | +$2.14 |
| Q2 2025 | -$0.06 | +$2.25 |
| Q1 2025 | -$0.73 | +$1.30 |
| Q4 2024 | -$1.44 | +$1.43 |
UPST has the edge over HOOD on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
HOOD Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1.4B | +12% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.3B | +32% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.1B | +15% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.3B | +27% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.3B | +100% |
| Q2 2025 | $989M | +45% |
| Q1 2025 | $927M | +50% |
| Q4 2024 | $1B | +115% |
HOOD's revenue has grown year over year for 16 quarters in a row: $1.4B last quarter, up 12% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 44% | -5.9 points |
| Q2 2026 | 54% | +9.5 points |
| Q1 2026 | 39% | -1.5 points |
| Q4 2025 | 52% | -3.5 points |
| Q3 2025 | 50% | +26 points |
| Q2 2025 | 45% | +17 points |
| Q1 2025 | 40% | +14 points |
| Q4 2024 | 55% | +49 points |
HOOD has the edge over UPST on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
UPST Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $370.5M | +34% |
| Q2 2026 | $364.7M | +42% |
| Q1 2026 | $308.2M | +44% |
| Q4 2025 | $296.1M | +35% |
| Q3 2025 | $277.1M | +71% |
| Q2 2025 | $257.3M | +102% |
| Q1 2025 | $213.4M | +67% |
| Q4 2024 | $219M | +56% |
UPST has the edge over HOOD on sales, with stronger typical year-over-year growth.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 9.7% | +1.2 points |
| Q2 2026 | 4% | +2.2 points |
| Q1 2026 | -2.4% | -0.3 points |
| Q4 2025 | 6.4% | +8.6 points |
| Q3 2025 | 8.5% | +36 points |
| Q2 2025 | 1.8% | +45 points |
| Q1 2025 | -2.1% | +51 points |
| Q4 2024 | -2.2% | +32 points |
UPST's operating margin was 9.7% last quarter, up 1.2 points from the same quarter a year ago.
HOOD Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1.2B | +$2.8B |
| Q2 2026 | $720M | -79% |
| Q1 2026 | $2B | +217% |
| Q4 2025 | -$937M | +$463M |
| Q3 2025 | -$1.6B | -187% |
| Q2 2025 | $3.5B | +6398% |
| Q1 2025 | $642M | +$1.3B |
| Q4 2024 | -$1.4B | -246% |
HOOD has the edge over UPST on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
UPST Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$20.6M | +$102.1M |
| Q2 2026 | -$138.7M | -$18.4M |
| Q1 2026 | -$136M | -$122.6M |
| Q4 2025 | $108.4M | +$219.3M |
| Q3 2025 | -$122.7M | -168% |
| Q2 2025 | -$120.3M | -284% |
| Q1 2025 | -$13.5M | -126% |
| Q4 2024 | -$110.9M | +$33M |
UPST's free cash flow was −$187M over the past year, against −$367M the year before. Free cash flow isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like UPST.
HOOD Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.1% | -1M shares |
| 1 year | -0.8% | -6.9M shares |
| 3 years | +1.8% | +15.9M shares |
| 5 years | +292% | +679M shares |
| Available history | +7.2% | +60.8M shares |
HOOD has the edge over UPST on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $25M |
| Q2 2026 | $414M |
| Q1 2026 | $250M |
| Q4 2025 | $100M |
| Q3 2025 | $107M |
| Q2 2025 | $124M |
| Q1 2025 | $322M |
| Q4 2024 | $160M |
HOOD spent $789M buying back its own shares over the past year, up 11% from the year before.
UPST Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +14% | +15.7M shares |
| 1 year | +14% | +15.7M shares |
| 3 years | +49% | +41M shares |
| 5 years | +31% | +29.4M shares |
| Available history | +771% | +111M shares |
UPST has 125M diluted shares, up 14% from a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | — |
| Q2 2026 | — |
| Q1 2026 | $100.1M |
| Q4 2023 | — |
| Q3 2023 | — |
| Q4 2022 | $27.8M |
| Q3 2022 | $25M |
| Q4 2020 | — |
HOOD Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -1.3x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | -2.1x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -2.2x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | -1.9x | Net Cash |
| Q3 2025 | -2.1x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -2.6x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -3.3x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | -3.8x | Net Cash |
HOOD has more cash than debt. Net leverage isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like HOOD.
UPST Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -5.3x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | -6.1x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -7.4x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | -9.7x | Net Cash |
| Q3 2025 | -11.7x | Net Cash |
| Q3 2022 | -39.2x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2022 | -7.7x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2022 | -4.5x | Net Cash |
UPST has the edge over HOOD on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
HOOD Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 40.8 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 9.5 | Oversold |
HOOD's weekly RSI is 41 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 10 (oversold).
UPST Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 30.1 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 5.5 | Oversold |
UPST's weekly RSI is 30 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 5 (oversold).
HOOD PE vs Financial Services Sector
| Metric | HOOD | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 38x | 13x | 189% above |
| PE % | 22 | 66 | 44 pts below |
HOOD is trading at 38x earnings, a 189% premium to the Financial Services sector's median of 13x.
UPST PE vs Financial Services Sector
| Metric | UPST | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 31x | 13x | 137% above |
| PE % | 18 | 61 | 43 pts below |
UPST has the edge over HOOD on valuation relative to its sector.
HOOD Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $97.8 | 17% below |
| 20 week MA | $102.2 | 20% below |
| 50 week MA | $95.4 | 15% below |
| 100 week MA | $88.5 | 8.1% below |
| 200 week MA | $52.1 | 56% above |
HOOD has the edge over UPST on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
UPST Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $22.8 | 16% below |
| 20 week MA | $26.7 | 28% below |
| 50 week MA | $31.7 | 40% below |
| 100 week MA | $44.8 | 57% below |
| 200 week MA | $38.6 | 50% below |
UPST is in a downtrend: it's below all five of its weekly moving averages, and 50% below its 200-week average.
HOOD Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | $35.2 | $18.9 | -46% |
| 2022 | $18.9 | $7.95 | -58% |
| 2023 | $7.95 | $12.7 | +60% |
| 2024 | $12.7 | $39.0 | +206% |
| 2025 | $39.0 | $118.1 | +203% |
| 2026 YTD | $118.1 | $81.4 | -31% |
HOOD has the edge over UPST on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
UPST Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $44.1 | $44.0 | -0.3% |
| 2021 | $44.0 | $148.1 | +237% |
| 2022 | $148.1 | $13.2 | -91% |
| 2023 | $13.2 | $40.9 | +210% |
| 2024 | $40.9 | $68.0 | +66% |
| 2025 | $68.0 | $47.5 | -30% |
| 2026 YTD | $47.5 | $19.2 | -60% |
UPST's yearly returns have swung widely, from +237% in 2021 to −91% in 2022. It's down 60% so far in 2026.