UPST
Upstart Holdings, Inc.
UPST's fundamentals are strong and it looks cheap: trading at 31x earnings, less than half its usual 75x. Analysts expect earnings to decline, though they disagree widely on how much.
UPST Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Healthy | |
| N/A | |
| N/A |
UPST's revenue and profitability are currently healthy. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like UPST.
UPST PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forward | 18x | $19.15 | — |
| Cheap | 30x | $18.54 | -3.2% |
| Current | 31x | $19.15 | — |
| Fair | 75x | $46.41 | +142% |
| Expensive | 441x | $273 | +1328% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
UPST's PE is in its cheap range at 31x. On analysts' estimates for next year's earnings, today's price would be 18x.
UPST Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Decline | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strongly weakening | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect UPST's revenue to grow, but its earnings and profitability to decline. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
UPST Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $1.04 | +67% |
| Q3 2026 | $0.62 | +158% |
| Q2 2026 | $0.52 | +$0.58 |
| Q1 2026 | $0.41 | +$1.14 |
| Q4 2025 | $0.45 | +$1.89 |
| Q3 2025 | $0.24 | +$2.14 |
| Q2 2025 | -$0.06 | +$2.25 |
| Q1 2025 | -$0.73 | +$1.30 |
| Q4 2024 | -$1.44 | +$1.43 |
UPST's earnings per share have fallen from their peak: $0.62 over the past year, against $1.66 in early 2022.
UPST Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $370.5M | +34% |
| Q2 2026 | $364.7M | +42% |
| Q1 2026 | $308.2M | +44% |
| Q4 2025 | $296.1M | +35% |
| Q3 2025 | $277.1M | +71% |
| Q2 2025 | $257.3M | +102% |
| Q1 2025 | $213.4M | +67% |
| Q4 2024 | $219M | +56% |
UPST's revenue has grown year over year for nine quarters in a row: $371M last quarter, up 34% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 9.7% | +1.2 points |
| Q2 2026 | 4% | +2.2 points |
| Q1 2026 | -2.4% | -0.3 points |
| Q4 2025 | 6.4% | +8.6 points |
| Q3 2025 | 8.5% | +36 points |
| Q2 2025 | 1.8% | +45 points |
| Q1 2025 | -2.1% | +51 points |
| Q4 2024 | -2.2% | +32 points |
UPST's operating margin was 9.7% last quarter, up 1.2 points from the same quarter a year ago.
UPST Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$20.6M | +$102.1M |
| Q2 2026 | -$138.7M | -$18.4M |
| Q1 2026 | -$136M | -$122.6M |
| Q4 2025 | $108.4M | +$219.3M |
| Q3 2025 | -$122.7M | -168% |
| Q2 2025 | -$120.3M | -284% |
| Q1 2025 | -$13.5M | -126% |
| Q4 2024 | -$110.9M | +$33M |
UPST's free cash flow was −$187M over the past year, against −$367M the year before. Free cash flow isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like UPST.
UPST Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +14% | +15.7M shares |
| 1 year | +14% | +15.7M shares |
| 3 years | +49% | +41M shares |
| 5 years | +31% | +29.4M shares |
| Available history | +771% | +111M shares |
UPST has 125M diluted shares, up 14% from a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | — |
| Q2 2026 | — |
| Q1 2026 | $100.1M |
| Q4 2023 | — |
| Q3 2023 | — |
| Q4 2022 | $27.8M |
| Q3 2022 | $25M |
| Q4 2020 | — |
UPST Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -5.3x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | -6.1x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -7.4x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | -9.7x | Net Cash |
| Q3 2025 | -11.7x | Net Cash |
| Q3 2022 | -39.2x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2022 | -7.7x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2022 | -4.5x | Net Cash |
UPST has more cash than debt. Net leverage isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like UPST.
UPST Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 30.1 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 5.5 | Oversold |
UPST's weekly RSI is 30 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 5 (oversold).
UPST PE vs Financial Services Sector
| Metric | UPST | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 31x | 13x | 137% above |
| PE % | 18 | 61 | 43 pts below |
UPST is trading at 31x earnings, a 137% premium to the Financial Services sector's median of 13x.
UPST Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $22.8 | 16% below |
| 20 week MA | $26.7 | 28% below |
| 50 week MA | $31.7 | 40% below |
| 100 week MA | $44.8 | 57% below |
| 200 week MA | $38.6 | 50% below |
UPST is in a downtrend: it's below all five of its weekly moving averages, and 50% below its 200-week average.
UPST Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $44.1 | $44.0 | -0.3% |
| 2021 | $44.0 | $148.1 | +237% |
| 2022 | $148.1 | $13.2 | -91% |
| 2023 | $13.2 | $40.9 | +210% |
| 2024 | $40.9 | $68.0 | +66% |
| 2025 | $68.0 | $47.5 | -30% |
| 2026 YTD | $47.5 | $19.2 | -60% |
UPST's yearly returns have swung widely, from +237% in 2021 to −91% in 2022. It's down 60% so far in 2026.