HOOD
Robinhood Markets, Inc.
HOOD has the edge over PGR overall, supported by stronger modeled upside and stronger valuation.
PGR
The Progressive Corporation
PGR has lower modeled downside risk, despite its lower overall score.
HOOD Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Healthy | |
| N/A | |
| N/A |
HOOD's revenue and profitability are currently healthy. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like HOOD.
PGR Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Healthy | |
| N/A | |
| N/A |
PGR's profitability is currently healthy, and its revenue is stable. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like PGR.
HOOD PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forward | 30x | $81.35 | — |
| Cheap | 37x | $78.84 | -3.1% |
| Current | 38x | $81.35 | — |
| Fair | 51x | $110 | +35% |
| Expensive | 74x | $160 | +96% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
HOOD's PE is in its cheap range at 38x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 30x next year's earnings.
PGR PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 11x | $211 | -10% |
| Current | 12x | $235 | — |
| Forward | 15x | $235 | — |
| Fair | 16x | $311 | +32% |
| Expensive | 46x | $904 | +284% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
PGR has the edge over HOOD in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
HOOD Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Moderate | |
| Low |
HOOD has the edge over PGR on the outlook, with more favorable valuation and earnings expectations.
PGR Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly deteriorating | |
| Decline | |
| Growth | |
| Strongly weakening | |
| Moderate | |
| Low |
Analysts expect PGR's revenue to grow, but its earnings and profitability to decline. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
HOOD Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $2.72 | +26% |
| Q3 2026 | $2.16 | -10% |
| Q2 2026 | $2.26 | +15% |
| Q1 2026 | $2.06 | +18% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.05 | +31% |
| Q3 2025 | $2.40 | +314% |
| Q2 2025 | $1.96 | +513% |
| Q1 2025 | $1.75 | +1150% |
| Q4 2024 | $1.56 | +$2.17 |
HOOD earned $2.16 per share over the past year, down 10% from the year before.
PGR Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $15.96 | -20% |
| Q3 2026 | $19.85 | +8.9% |
| Q2 2026 | $19.93 | +12% |
| Q1 2026 | $19.66 | +33% |
| Q4 2025 | $19.23 | +34% |
| Q3 2025 | $18.23 | +32% |
| Q2 2025 | $17.75 | +52% |
| Q1 2025 | $14.83 | +52% |
| Q4 2024 | $14.40 | +119% |
PGR has the edge over HOOD on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
HOOD Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1.4B | +12% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.3B | +32% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.1B | +15% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.3B | +27% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.3B | +100% |
| Q2 2025 | $989M | +45% |
| Q1 2025 | $927M | +50% |
| Q4 2024 | $1B | +115% |
HOOD has the edge over PGR on sales, with stronger typical year-over-year growth.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 44% | -5.9 points |
| Q2 2026 | 54% | +9.5 points |
| Q1 2026 | 39% | -1.5 points |
| Q4 2025 | 52% | -3.5 points |
| Q3 2025 | 50% | +26 points |
| Q2 2025 | 45% | +17 points |
| Q1 2025 | 40% | +14 points |
| Q4 2024 | 55% | +49 points |
HOOD has the edge over PGR on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
PGR Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $23.2B | +3% |
| Q2 2026 | $23.6B | +7.3% |
| Q1 2026 | $22.2B | +8.7% |
| Q4 2025 | $22.7B | +12% |
| Q3 2025 | $22.5B | +14% |
| Q2 2025 | $22B | +21% |
| Q1 2025 | $20.4B | +18% |
| Q4 2024 | $20.3B | +20% |
PGR's revenue has grown year over year for 17 quarters in a row: $23.2B last quarter, up 3% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 14% | -0.8 points |
| Q2 2026 | 18% | -0.3 points |
| Q1 2026 | 16% | +0.2 points |
| Q4 2025 | 16% | +1.6 points |
| Q3 2025 | 15% | -0.2 points |
| Q2 2025 | 18% | +7.8 points |
| Q1 2025 | 16% | -1.2 points |
| Q4 2024 | 15% | -0.2 points |
PGR's operating margin was 14% last quarter, down 0.8 points from the same quarter a year ago.
HOOD Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1.2B | +$2.8B |
| Q2 2026 | $720M | -79% |
| Q1 2026 | $2B | +217% |
| Q4 2025 | -$937M | +$463M |
| Q3 2025 | -$1.6B | -187% |
| Q2 2025 | $3.5B | +6398% |
| Q1 2025 | $642M | +$1.3B |
| Q4 2024 | -$1.4B | -246% |
HOOD's free cash flow was $3B over the past year, up 159% from the year before. Free cash flow isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like HOOD.
PGR Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $4.4B | -14% |
| Q2 2026 | $3.5B | -12% |
| Q1 2026 | $4.3B | -15% |
| Q4 2025 | $3B | +5.2% |
| Q3 2025 | $5.1B | +13% |
| Q2 2025 | $3.9B | +23% |
| Q1 2025 | $5.1B | +21% |
| Q4 2024 | $2.9B | +23% |
PGR's free cash flow was $15.2B over the past year, down 11% from the year before. Free cash flow isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like PGR.
HOOD Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.1% | -1M shares |
| 1 year | -0.8% | -6.9M shares |
| 3 years | +1.8% | +15.9M shares |
| 5 years | +292% | +679M shares |
| Available history | +7.2% | +60.8M shares |
HOOD has 911M diluted shares, down 0.8% from a year ago, with $789M in buybacks over the past year.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $25M |
| Q2 2026 | $414M |
| Q1 2026 | $250M |
| Q4 2025 | $100M |
| Q3 2025 | $107M |
| Q2 2025 | $124M |
| Q1 2025 | $322M |
| Q4 2024 | $160M |
HOOD spent $789M buying back its own shares over the past year, up 11% from the year before.
PGR Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.3% | -2M shares |
| 1 year | -1% | -6M shares |
| 3 years | -0.9% | -5.3M shares |
| 5 years | -0.8% | -4.9M shares |
| Available history | -0.9% | -5M shares |
PGR has the edge over HOOD on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
HOOD Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -1.3x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | -2.1x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -2.2x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | -1.9x | Net Cash |
| Q3 2025 | -2.1x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -2.6x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -3.3x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | -3.8x | Net Cash |
HOOD has more cash than debt. Net leverage isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like HOOD.
PGR Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q4 2025 | -0.0x | Net Cash |
| Q3 2025 | -0.0x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -0.0x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -0.0x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | -0.0x | Net Cash |
| Q3 2024 | -0.0x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2024 | -0.0x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2024 | -0.0x | Net Cash |
PGR has more cash than debt. Net leverage isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like PGR.
HOOD Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 40.8 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 9.5 | Oversold |
HOOD's weekly RSI is 41 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 10 (oversold).
PGR Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 62.4 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 80.4 | Overbought |
PGR's weekly RSI is 62 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 80 (overbought).
HOOD PE vs Financial Services Sector
| Metric | HOOD | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 38x | 13x | 189% above |
| PE % | 22 | 66 | 44 pts below |
HOOD is trading at 38x earnings, a 189% premium to the Financial Services sector's median of 13x.
PGR PE vs Financial Services Sector
| Metric | PGR | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 12x | 13x | 8.9% below |
| PE % | 28 | 63 | 35 pts below |
PGR has the edge over HOOD on valuation relative to its sector.
HOOD Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $97.8 | 17% below |
| 20 week MA | $102.2 | 20% below |
| 50 week MA | $95.4 | 15% below |
| 100 week MA | $88.5 | 8.1% below |
| 200 week MA | $52.1 | 56% above |
HOOD has fallen below most of its moving averages, though it's still 56% above its 200-week average.
PGR Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $221.8 | 6.2% above |
| 20 week MA | $219.2 | 7.4% above |
| 50 week MA | $211.9 | 11% above |
| 100 week MA | $232.6 | 1.3% above |
| 200 week MA | $206.3 | 14% above |
PGR has the edge over HOOD on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
HOOD Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | $35.2 | $18.9 | -46% |
| 2022 | $18.9 | $7.95 | -58% |
| 2023 | $7.95 | $12.7 | +60% |
| 2024 | $12.7 | $39.0 | +206% |
| 2025 | $39.0 | $118.1 | +203% |
| 2026 YTD | $118.1 | $81.4 | -31% |
HOOD's yearly returns have swung widely, from +206% in 2024 to −58% in 2022. It's down 31% so far in 2026.
PGR Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $72.2 | $98.3 | +36% |
| 2021 | $98.3 | $101.3 | +3% |
| 2022 | $101.3 | $129.4 | +28% |
| 2023 | $129.4 | $159.3 | +23% |
| 2024 | $159.3 | $241.0 | +51% |
| 2025 | $241.0 | $227.1 | -5.8% |
| 2026 YTD | $227.1 | $235.5 | +3.7% |
PGR has the edge over HOOD on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.