HOOD
Robinhood Markets, Inc.
HOOD offers stronger modeled upside, but that advantage does not outweigh its weaker overall profile.
MSCI
MSCI Inc.
MSCI has the edge over HOOD overall, supported by lower modeled downside and stronger fundamentals.
HOOD Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Healthy | |
| N/A | |
| N/A |
HOOD's revenue and profitability are currently healthy. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like HOOD.
MSCI Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| N/A | |
| N/A |
MSCI's revenue and profitability are currently healthy. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like MSCI.
HOOD PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forward | 30x | $81.35 | — |
| Cheap | 37x | $78.84 | -3.1% |
| Current | 38x | $81.35 | — |
| Fair | 51x | $110 | +35% |
| Expensive | 74x | $160 | +96% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
HOOD's PE is in its cheap range at 38x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 30x next year's earnings.
MSCI PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forward | 30x | $652 | — |
| Current | 34x | $652 | — |
| Cheap | 36x | $680 | +4.4% |
| Fair | 44x | $824 | +27% |
| Expensive | 60x | $1,132 | +74% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
MSCI has the edge over HOOD in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
HOOD Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Moderate | |
| Low |
Analysts expect strong earnings and revenue growth for HOOD, with profitability improving. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
MSCI Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Growth | |
| Growth | |
| Improving | |
| Limited | |
| High |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for MSCI, with profitability improving.
HOOD Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $2.72 | +26% |
| Q3 2026 | $2.16 | -10% |
| Q2 2026 | $2.26 | +15% |
| Q1 2026 | $2.06 | +18% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.05 | +31% |
| Q3 2025 | $2.40 | +314% |
| Q2 2025 | $1.96 | +513% |
| Q1 2025 | $1.75 | +1150% |
| Q4 2024 | $1.56 | +$2.17 |
HOOD has the edge over MSCI on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
MSCI Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $21.70 | +15% |
| Q3 2026 | $18.89 | +20% |
| Q2 2026 | $18.28 | +21% |
| Q1 2026 | $17.51 | +20% |
| Q4 2025 | $15.69 | +12% |
| Q3 2025 | $15.77 | +3.6% |
| Q2 2025 | $15.09 | +1.1% |
| Q1 2025 | $14.54 | -0.7% |
| Q4 2024 | $14.05 | -2.4% |
MSCI earned $18.89 per share over the past year, up 20% from the year before.
HOOD Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1.4B | +12% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.3B | +32% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.1B | +15% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.3B | +27% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.3B | +100% |
| Q2 2025 | $989M | +45% |
| Q1 2025 | $927M | +50% |
| Q4 2024 | $1B | +115% |
HOOD has the edge over MSCI on sales, with stronger typical year-over-year growth.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 44% | -5.9 points |
| Q2 2026 | 54% | +9.5 points |
| Q1 2026 | 39% | -1.5 points |
| Q4 2025 | 52% | -3.5 points |
| Q3 2025 | 50% | +26 points |
| Q2 2025 | 45% | +17 points |
| Q1 2025 | 40% | +14 points |
| Q4 2024 | 55% | +49 points |
HOOD's operating margin was 44% last quarter, down 5.9 points from the same quarter a year ago.
MSCI Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $892M | +12% |
| Q2 2026 | $867M | +12% |
| Q1 2026 | $850.8M | +14% |
| Q4 2025 | $822.5M | +11% |
| Q3 2025 | $793.4M | +9.5% |
| Q2 2025 | $772.7M | +9.1% |
| Q1 2025 | $745.8M | +9.7% |
| Q4 2024 | $743.5M | +7.7% |
MSCI's revenue has grown year over year every quarter since late 2020: $892M last quarter, up 12% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 56% | -0.1 points |
| Q2 2026 | 56% | +1.2 points |
| Q1 2026 | 54% | +3.2 points |
| Q4 2025 | 56% | +1.9 points |
| Q3 2025 | 56% | +1 points |
| Q2 2025 | 55% | +1 points |
| Q1 2025 | 51% | +0.6 points |
| Q4 2024 | 55% | +0.8 points |
MSCI has the edge over HOOD on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
HOOD Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1.2B | +$2.8B |
| Q2 2026 | $720M | -79% |
| Q1 2026 | $2B | +217% |
| Q4 2025 | -$937M | +$463M |
| Q3 2025 | -$1.6B | -187% |
| Q2 2025 | $3.5B | +6398% |
| Q1 2025 | $642M | +$1.3B |
| Q4 2024 | -$1.4B | -246% |
HOOD's free cash flow was $3B over the past year, up 159% from the year before. Free cash flow isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like HOOD.
MSCI Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $422.7M | -5.1% |
| Q2 2026 | $359.8M | +11% |
| Q1 2026 | $304M | +4.7% |
| Q4 2025 | $488.7M | +17% |
| Q3 2025 | $445.5M | +7.4% |
| Q2 2025 | $324.7M | -4.7% |
| Q1 2025 | $290.2M | -1.9% |
| Q4 2024 | $416.4M | +8.1% |
MSCI's free cash flow was $1.6B over the past year, up 6.7% from the year before. Free cash flow isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like MSCI.
HOOD Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.1% | -1M shares |
| 1 year | -0.8% | -6.9M shares |
| 3 years | +1.8% | +15.9M shares |
| 5 years | +292% | +679M shares |
| Available history | +7.2% | +60.8M shares |
HOOD has 911M diluted shares, down 0.8% from a year ago, with $789M in buybacks over the past year.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $25M |
| Q2 2026 | $414M |
| Q1 2026 | $250M |
| Q4 2025 | $100M |
| Q3 2025 | $107M |
| Q2 2025 | $124M |
| Q1 2025 | $322M |
| Q4 2024 | $160M |
HOOD spent $789M buying back its own shares over the past year, up 11% from the year before.
MSCI Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.8% | -600K shares |
| 1 year | -5.6% | -4.3M shares |
| 3 years | -9.1% | -7.2M shares |
| 5 years | -13% | -11.3M shares |
| Available history | -15% | -13.2M shares |
MSCI has the edge over HOOD on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $552.6M |
| Q2 2026 | $168.4M |
| Q1 2026 | $414.8M |
| Q4 2025 | $906.8M |
| Q3 2025 | $1.2B |
| Q2 2025 | $138.5M |
| Q1 2025 | $213.1M |
| Q4 2024 | $374M |
MSCI spent $2B buying back its own shares over the past year, up 4.7% from the year before.
HOOD Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -1.3x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | -2.1x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -2.2x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | -1.9x | Net Cash |
| Q3 2025 | -2.1x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -2.6x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -3.3x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | -3.8x | Net Cash |
HOOD has the edge over MSCI on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
MSCI Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 3.3x | Elevated |
| Q2 2026 | 3.2x | Elevated |
| Q1 2026 | 3.3x | Elevated |
| Q4 2025 | 3.3x | Elevated |
| Q3 2025 | 3.1x | Elevated |
| Q2 2025 | 2.6x | Moderate |
| Q1 2025 | 2.6x | Moderate |
| Q4 2024 | 2.7x | Moderate |
MSCI's net debt is about 3.3 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), up from 3.0 years a year ago. Net leverage isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like MSCI.
HOOD Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 40.8 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 9.5 | Oversold |
HOOD's weekly RSI is 41 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 10 (oversold).
MSCI Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 64.8 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 83.3 | Overbought |
MSCI's weekly RSI is 65 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 83 (overbought).
HOOD PE vs Financial Services Sector
| Metric | HOOD | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 38x | 13x | 189% above |
| PE % | 22 | 66 | 44 pts below |
HOOD is trading at 38x earnings, a 189% premium to the Financial Services sector's median of 13x.
MSCI PE vs Financial Services Sector
| Metric | MSCI | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 34x | 13x | 165% above |
| PE % | 11 | 63 | 52 pts below |
MSCI has the edge over HOOD on valuation relative to its sector.
HOOD Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $97.8 | 17% below |
| 20 week MA | $102.2 | 20% below |
| 50 week MA | $95.4 | 15% below |
| 100 week MA | $88.5 | 8.1% below |
| 200 week MA | $52.1 | 56% above |
HOOD has fallen below most of its moving averages, though it's still 56% above its 200-week average.
MSCI Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $594.1 | 9.7% above |
| 20 week MA | $583.0 | 12% above |
| 50 week MA | $575.8 | 13% above |
| 100 week MA | $571.3 | 14% above |
| 200 week MA | $551.7 | 18% above |
MSCI has the edge over HOOD on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
HOOD Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | $35.2 | $18.9 | -46% |
| 2022 | $18.9 | $7.95 | -58% |
| 2023 | $7.95 | $12.7 | +60% |
| 2024 | $12.7 | $39.0 | +206% |
| 2025 | $39.0 | $118.1 | +203% |
| 2026 YTD | $118.1 | $81.4 | -31% |
HOOD's yearly returns have swung widely, from +206% in 2024 to −58% in 2022. It's down 31% so far in 2026.
MSCI Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $260.0 | $432.5 | +66% |
| 2021 | $432.5 | $611.3 | +41% |
| 2022 | $611.3 | $463.8 | -24% |
| 2023 | $463.8 | $565.7 | +22% |
| 2024 | $565.7 | $609.6 | +7.8% |
| 2025 | $609.6 | $585.0 | -4% |
| 2026 YTD | $585.0 | $651.5 | +11% |
MSCI has the edge over HOOD on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.