HOG
Harley-Davidson, Inc.
HOG's outlook is improving, though it still trails on the overall score.
NKE
NIKE, Inc.
NKE has the edge over HOG overall, supported by stronger valuation and stronger fundamentals.
HOG Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Under pressure | |
| Weak | |
| Stable | |
| Strong |
HOG's balance sheet is currently strong, and its cash flow is stable, but its revenue and profitability are under pressure.
NKE Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Healthy | |
| Stable | |
| Strong |
NKE's profitability and balance sheet are currently healthy, and its revenue and cash flow are stable.
HOG PE Valuation
HOG has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
NKE PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current | 18x | $37.76 | — |
| Cheap | 23x | $47.70 | +26% |
| Forward | 30x | $37.76 | — |
| Fair | 33x | $68.16 | +80% |
| Expensive | 47x | $97.86 | +159% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
NKE's PE is in its cheap range at 18x. On analysts' estimates for next year's earnings, today's price would be 30x, in its fair range.
HOG Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
HOG has the edge over NKE on the outlook, with more favorable earnings and revenue expectations.
NKE Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly deteriorating | |
| Stable | |
| Decline | |
| Improving | |
| Moderate | |
| Low |
Analysts expect NKE's profitability to improve, but its revenue to decline. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
HOG Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $1.78 | — |
| Q3 2026 | -$0.90 | -121% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.80 | -12% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.93 | -31% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.78 | -19% |
| Q3 2025 | $4.23 | -5.8% |
| Q2 2025 | $2.04 | -59% |
| Q1 2025 | $2.79 | -39% |
| Q4 2024 | $3.44 | -29% |
HOG has swung to a loss: it lost $0.90 per share over the past year, after a profit the year before.
NKE Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $1.27 | -39% |
| Q3 2026 | $2.09 | +7.2% |
| Q2 2026 | $2.10 | -2.8% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.51 | -50% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.70 | -48% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.95 | -44% |
| Q2 2025 | $2.16 | -42% |
| Q1 2025 | $3.01 | -11% |
| Q4 2024 | $3.24 | -5.3% |
NKE has the edge over HOG on earnings quality, reporting a profit while its opponent remains loss making.
HOG Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1.1B | -19% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.2B | -5.9% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.2B | -12% |
| Q4 2025 | $496.2M | -28% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.3B | +17% |
| Q2 2025 | $1.3B | -19% |
| Q1 2025 | $1.3B | -23% |
| Q4 2024 | $687.6M | -35% |
HOG's revenue has slid since its 2023 peak: $1.1B last quarter, down 19% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 3.5% | -32 points |
| Q2 2026 | 6.2% | -2.4 points |
| Q1 2026 | 2% | -10 points |
| Q4 2025 | -73% | -45 points |
| Q3 2025 | 35% | +26 points |
| Q2 2025 | 8.6% | -6.3 points |
| Q1 2025 | 12% | -3.1 points |
| Q4 2024 | -28% | -26 points |
HOG's operating margin was 3.5% last quarter, down 32 points from the same quarter a year ago.
NKE Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $11.2B | -4.3% |
| Q2 2026 | $11B | -1.1% |
| Q1 2026 | $11.3B | +0.1% |
| Q4 2025 | $12.4B | +0.6% |
| Q3 2025 | $11.7B | +1.1% |
| Q2 2025 | $11.1B | -12% |
| Q1 2025 | $11.3B | -9.3% |
| Q4 2024 | $12.4B | -7.7% |
NKE has the edge over HOG on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 8.2% | +0.3 points |
| Q2 2026 | 12% | +9.2 points |
| Q1 2026 | 5.8% | -1.7 points |
| Q4 2025 | 8% | -3.4 points |
| Q3 2025 | 7.9% | -3.4 points |
| Q2 2025 | 2.9% | -11 points |
| Q1 2025 | 7.5% | -3.8 points |
| Q4 2024 | 11% | -2.9 points |
NKE has the edge over HOG on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
HOG Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $315.9M | +$445M |
| Q2 2026 | $155.4M | -53% |
| Q1 2026 | -$259.8M | -333% |
| Q4 2025 | $100.4M | +30% |
| Q3 2025 | -$129.1M | -143% |
| Q2 2025 | $332.4M | -23% |
| Q1 2025 | $111.6M | +94% |
| Q4 2024 | $77M | +$97.4M |
HOG has the edge over NKE on cash flow, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
NKE Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$64M | -527% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.5B | +313% |
| Q1 2026 | $284M | -83% |
| Q4 2025 | $386M | -58% |
| Q3 2025 | $15M | -95% |
| Q2 2025 | $363M | -85% |
| Q1 2025 | $1.7B | -11% |
| Q4 2024 | $920M | -65% |
NKE usually generates cash, though not every quarter: the latest was −$64M, but it generated $2.1B over the past year.
HOG Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -1.8% | -2M shares |
| 1 year | -12% | -15.1M shares |
| 3 years | -26% | -37.7M shares |
| 5 years | -31% | -48.5M shares |
| Available history | -32% | -51.2M shares |
HOG has the edge over NKE on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $90.8M |
| Q2 2026 | $30.4M |
| Q1 2026 | $70M |
| Q4 2025 | $160.1M |
| Q3 2025 | $100.1M |
| Q2 2025 | $45,000 |
| Q1 2025 | $93.1M |
| Q4 2024 | $100M |
HOG spent $351M buying back its own shares over the past year, up 20% from the year before.
NKE Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +0.2% | +3.2M shares |
| 1 year | +0.4% | +5.2M shares |
| 3 years | -3.8% | -59.1M shares |
| 5 years | -8.4% | -135M shares |
| Available history | -6.9% | -110M shares |
NKE has 1.5B diluted shares, about the same as a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | — |
| Q2 2026 | — |
| Q1 2026 | — |
| Q4 2025 | $20M |
| Q3 2025 | $126M |
| Q2 2025 | $199M |
| Q1 2025 | $506M |
| Q4 2024 | $1.1B |
NKE has spent almost nothing on buybacks in the past year.
HOG Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | 0.9x | Very low |
| Q1 2026 | 0.8x | Very low |
| Q4 2025 | -0.2x | Net Cash |
| Q3 2025 | 4.7x | High |
| Q2 2025 | 15.1x | High |
| Q1 2025 | 11.3x | High |
| Q4 2024 | 9.3x | High |
| Q3 2024 | 7.4x | High |
HOG's net debt is less than a year of its operating earnings (EBITDA), down from 15 years a year ago.
NKE Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 0.2x | Very low |
| Q2 2026 | 0.1x | Very low |
| Q1 2025 | 0.1x | Very low |
| Q4 2024 | 0.2x | Very low |
| Q3 2024 | 0.1x | Very low |
| Q2 2024 | -0.1x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2024 | -0.0x | Very low |
| Q4 2023 | 0.1x | Very low |
NKE has the edge over HOG on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
HOG Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 70.1 | Overbought |
| Stochastic | 85.9 | Overbought |
HOG's weekly RSI is 70 (overbought) and its Stochastic is 86 (overbought).
NKE Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 40.0 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 57.5 | Neutral |
NKE's weekly RSI is 40 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 58 (neutral).
HOG PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector
| Metric | HOG | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 16x | 18x | 11% below |
| PE % | 87 | 47 | 40 pts above |
HOG has the edge over NKE on valuation relative to its sector.
NKE PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector
| Metric | NKE | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 18x | 18x | 0.3% above |
| PE % | 2 | 47 | 45 pts below |
NKE is trading at 18x earnings, in line with the Consumer Cyclical sector's median of 18x.
HOG Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $28.6 | 13% above |
| 20 week MA | $27.4 | 18% above |
| 50 week MA | $24.1 | 35% above |
| 100 week MA | $25.1 | 30% above |
| 200 week MA | $30.4 | 6.6% above |
HOG has the edge over NKE on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
NKE Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $36.7 | 2.8% above |
| 20 week MA | $39.2 | 3.6% below |
| 50 week MA | $48.0 | 21% below |
| 100 week MA | $58.4 | 35% below |
| 200 week MA | $79.2 | 52% below |
NKE has bounced recently, but its long-term trend is still down: it's above its 8-week average, but 52% below its 200-week average.
HOG Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $37.8 | $37.1 | -1.7% |
| 2021 | $37.1 | $36.2 | -2.3% |
| 2022 | $36.2 | $41.4 | +14% |
| 2023 | $41.4 | $36.8 | -11% |
| 2024 | $36.8 | $30.3 | -18% |
| 2025 | $30.3 | $21.0 | -31% |
| 2026 YTD | $21.0 | $32.4 | +54% |
HOG has the edge over NKE on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
NKE Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $101.6 | $141.6 | +39% |
| 2021 | $141.6 | $165.7 | +17% |
| 2022 | $165.7 | $116.3 | -30% |
| 2023 | $116.3 | $108.6 | -6.6% |
| 2024 | $108.6 | $76.4 | -30% |
| 2025 | $76.4 | $60.9 | -20% |
| 2026 YTD | $60.9 | $37.8 | -38% |
NKE has finished four years in a row lower, and it's down 38% so far in 2026.