HOG
Harley-Davidson, Inc.
HOG has lower modeled downside risk, despite its lower overall score.
LCID
Lucid Group, Inc.
LCID has the edge over HOG overall, supported by stronger fundamentals and stronger modeled upside.
HOG Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Under pressure | |
| Weak | |
| Stable | |
| Strong |
HOG's balance sheet is currently strong, and its cash flow is stable, but its revenue and profitability are under pressure.
LCID Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Weak | |
| Weak | |
| Unavailable |
LCID's revenue is currently healthy, but its profitability and cash flow are weak. There isn't enough data to rate its balance sheet.
HOG PE Valuation
HOG has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
LCID PE Valuation
LCID has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
HOG Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for HOG, with profitability improving. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
LCID Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Losses shrinking | |
| Strong growth | |
| -- | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect LCID's losses to shrink, with revenue growing. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
HOG Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $1.78 | — |
| Q3 2026 | -$0.90 | -121% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.80 | -12% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.93 | -31% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.78 | -19% |
| Q3 2025 | $4.23 | -5.8% |
| Q2 2025 | $2.04 | -59% |
| Q1 2025 | $2.79 | -39% |
| Q4 2024 | $3.44 | -29% |
HOG has swung to a loss: it lost $0.90 per share over the past year, after a profit the year before.
LCID Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$13.08 | -$2.57 |
| Q2 2026 | -$13.65 | -$2.35 |
| Q1 2026 | -$13.15 | -$1.25 |
| Q4 2025 | -$12.09 | +$0.41 |
| Q3 2025 | -$10.51 | +$2.49 |
| Q2 2025 | -$11.30 | +$0.40 |
| Q1 2025 | -$11.90 | +$0.40 |
| Q4 2024 | -$12.50 | +$1.10 |
LCID has the edge over HOG on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
HOG Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1.1B | -19% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.2B | -5.9% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.2B | -12% |
| Q4 2025 | $496.2M | -28% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.3B | +17% |
| Q2 2025 | $1.3B | -19% |
| Q1 2025 | $1.3B | -23% |
| Q4 2024 | $687.6M | -35% |
HOG's revenue has slid since its 2023 peak: $1.1B last quarter, down 19% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 3.5% | -32 points |
| Q2 2026 | 6.2% | -2.4 points |
| Q1 2026 | 2% | -10 points |
| Q4 2025 | -73% | -45 points |
| Q3 2025 | 35% | +26 points |
| Q2 2025 | 8.6% | -6.3 points |
| Q1 2025 | 12% | -3.1 points |
| Q4 2024 | -28% | -26 points |
HOG has the edge over LCID on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
LCID Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $350.3M | +4.1% |
| Q2 2026 | $405.3M | +56% |
| Q1 2026 | $282.5M | +20% |
| Q4 2025 | $522.7M | +123% |
| Q3 2025 | $336.6M | +68% |
| Q2 2025 | $259.4M | +29% |
| Q1 2025 | $235M | +36% |
| Q4 2024 | $234.5M | +49% |
LCID has the edge over HOG on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -245% | +35 points |
| Q2 2026 | -267% | +43 points |
| Q1 2026 | -350% | -56 points |
| Q4 2025 | -204% | +109 points |
| Q3 2025 | -280% | +105 points |
| Q2 2025 | -310% | +83 points |
| Q1 2025 | -294% | +128 points |
| Q4 2024 | -313% | +156 points |
LCID's operating margin was −245% last quarter, up 35 points from the same quarter a year ago, near the top of its range since 2020.
HOG Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $315.9M | +$445M |
| Q2 2026 | $155.4M | -53% |
| Q1 2026 | -$259.8M | -333% |
| Q4 2025 | $100.4M | +30% |
| Q3 2025 | -$129.1M | -143% |
| Q2 2025 | $332.4M | -23% |
| Q1 2025 | $111.6M | +94% |
| Q4 2024 | $77M | +$97.4M |
HOG has the edge over LCID on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
LCID Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$1B | -$84.2M |
| Q2 2026 | -$1.5B | -$463.2M |
| Q1 2026 | -$1.4B | -$849M |
| Q4 2025 | -$1.2B | -$417.1M |
| Q3 2025 | -$955.5M | -$333M |
| Q2 2025 | -$1B | -$271.6M |
| Q1 2025 | -$589.9M | +$125.1M |
| Q4 2024 | -$824.8M | -$77.6M |
LCID has burned cash in almost every quarter: −$5.2B over the past year, against −$3.4B the year before.
HOG Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -1.8% | -2M shares |
| 1 year | -12% | -15.1M shares |
| 3 years | -26% | -37.7M shares |
| 5 years | -31% | -48.5M shares |
| Available history | -32% | -51.2M shares |
HOG has the edge over LCID on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $90.8M |
| Q2 2026 | $30.4M |
| Q1 2026 | $70M |
| Q4 2025 | $160.1M |
| Q3 2025 | $100.1M |
| Q2 2025 | $45,000 |
| Q1 2025 | $93.1M |
| Q4 2024 | $100M |
HOG spent $351M buying back its own shares over the past year, up 20% from the year before.
LCID Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +3.3% | +12.5M shares |
| 1 year | +26% | +82.4M shares |
| 3 years | +73% | +166M shares |
LCID has 395M diluted shares, up 26% from a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q4 2020 | $2.2M |
| Q1 2020 | — |
HOG Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | 0.9x | Very low |
| Q1 2026 | 0.8x | Very low |
| Q4 2025 | -0.2x | Net Cash |
| Q3 2025 | 4.7x | High |
| Q2 2025 | 15.1x | High |
| Q1 2025 | 11.3x | High |
| Q4 2024 | 9.3x | High |
| Q3 2024 | 7.4x | High |
HOG's net debt is less than a year of its operating earnings (EBITDA), down from 15 years a year ago.
LCID Net Leverage
LCID's operating earnings (EBITDA) were negative over the past year, so its debt can't be measured against them.
HOG Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 70.1 | Overbought |
| Stochastic | 85.9 | Overbought |
HOG's weekly RSI is 70 (overbought) and its Stochastic is 86 (overbought).
LCID Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 32.9 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 7.1 | Oversold |
LCID's weekly RSI is 33 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 7 (oversold).
HOG PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector
| Metric | HOG | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 16x | 18x | 11% below |
| PE % | 87 | 47 | 40 pts above |
HOG has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
LCID PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector
LCID has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
HOG Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $28.6 | 13% above |
| 20 week MA | $27.4 | 18% above |
| 50 week MA | $24.1 | 35% above |
| 100 week MA | $25.1 | 30% above |
| 200 week MA | $30.4 | 6.6% above |
HOG has the edge over LCID on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
LCID Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $3.53 | 7.9% below |
| 20 week MA | $4.88 | 33% below |
| 50 week MA | $7.33 | 56% below |
| 100 week MA | $15.4 | 79% below |
| 200 week MA | $31.9 | 90% below |
LCID is in a downtrend: it's below all five of its weekly moving averages, and 90% below its 200-week average.
HOG Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $37.8 | $37.1 | -1.7% |
| 2021 | $37.1 | $36.2 | -2.3% |
| 2022 | $36.2 | $41.4 | +14% |
| 2023 | $41.4 | $36.8 | -11% |
| 2024 | $36.8 | $30.3 | -18% |
| 2025 | $30.3 | $21.0 | -31% |
| 2026 YTD | $21.0 | $32.4 | +54% |
HOG has the edge over LCID on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
LCID Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $98.9 | $100.4 | +1.5% |
| 2021 | $100.4 | $376.4 | +275% |
| 2022 | $376.4 | $67.0 | -82% |
| 2023 | $67.0 | $42.1 | -37% |
| 2024 | $42.1 | $32.0 | -24% |
| 2025 | $32.0 | $11.4 | -64% |
| 2026 YTD | $11.4 | $3.25 | -72% |
LCID has finished four years in a row lower, and it's down 72% so far in 2026.