HGTY
Hagerty, Inc.
HGTY's outlook is improving, though it still trails on the overall score.
MS
Morgan Stanley
MS has the edge over HGTY overall, supported by stronger modeled upside and lower modeled downside.
HGTY Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Under pressure | |
| Stable | |
| N/A | |
| N/A |
HGTY's profitability is currently stable, but its revenue is under pressure. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like HGTY.
MS Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| N/A | |
| N/A |
MS's revenue and profitability are currently healthy. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like MS.
HGTY PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forward | 30x | $15.80 | — |
| Cheap | 43x | $2.60 | -84% |
| Fair | 50x | $3.00 | -81% |
| Expensive | 138x | $8.26 | -48% |
| Current | 244x | $15.80 | — |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
HGTY's PE is in its expensive range at 244x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 30x next year's earnings, in its cheap range.
MS PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 11x | $134 | -29% |
| Fair | 14x | $178 | -5.7% |
| Forward | 14x | $189 | — |
| Current | 15x | $189 | — |
| Expensive | 18x | $223 | +18% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
MS has the edge over HGTY in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
HGTY Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Returning to profit | |
| Growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect HGTY to return to profit, with revenue growing. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
MS Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Growth | |
| Growth | |
| Improving | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for MS, with profitability improving.
HGTY Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $0.53 | +775% |
| Q3 2026 | $0.06 | -79% |
| Q2 2026 | $0.09 | -57% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.20 | -4.8% |
HGTY earned $0.06 per share over the past year, down 79% from the year before.
MS Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $13.39 | +6.3% |
| Q3 2026 | $12.60 | +29% |
| Q2 2026 | $12.37 | +40% |
| Q1 2026 | $11.04 | +29% |
| Q4 2025 | $10.21 | +28% |
| Q3 2025 | $9.76 | +48% |
| Q2 2025 | $8.84 | +45% |
| Q1 2025 | $8.53 | +55% |
| Q4 2024 | $7.95 | +53% |
MS has the edge over HGTY in the latest year-over-year earnings comparison.
HGTY Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $354.2M | -6.8% |
| Q2 2026 | $354.8M | -3.8% |
| Q1 2026 | $311.8M | -2.4% |
| Q4 2025 | $357.3M | +22% |
| Q3 2025 | $380M | +18% |
| Q2 2025 | $368.7M | +18% |
| Q1 2025 | $319.6M | +18% |
| Q4 2024 | $291.7M | +19% |
HGTY's revenue has held roughly level: $354M last quarter, down 6.8% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 12% | +2.7 points |
| Q2 2026 | 0.6% | -12 points |
| Q1 2026 | -6.7% | -15 points |
| Q4 2025 | 11% | +9 points |
| Q3 2025 | 9% | +5.9 points |
| Q2 2025 | 13% | +0.8 points |
| Q1 2025 | 8.1% | +3.6 points |
| Q4 2024 | 2.1% | +4.7 points |
HGTY's operating margin was 12% last quarter, up 2.7 points from the same quarter a year ago.
MS Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $20.3B | +12% |
| Q2 2026 | $21.3B | +27% |
| Q1 2026 | $20.6B | +16% |
| Q4 2025 | $17.9B | +10% |
| Q3 2025 | $18.2B | +18% |
| Q2 2025 | $16.8B | +12% |
| Q1 2025 | $17.7B | +17% |
| Q4 2024 | $16.2B | +26% |
MS's revenue has grown year over year for 14 quarters in a row: $20.3B last quarter, up 12% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 32% | -1.2 points |
| Q2 2026 | 34% | +6.9 points |
| Q1 2026 | 34% | +2.8 points |
| Q4 2025 | 32% | +2 points |
| Q3 2025 | 33% | +5.6 points |
| Q2 2025 | 28% | +0.4 points |
| Q1 2025 | 31% | +2.2 points |
| Q4 2024 | 30% | +14 points |
MS has the edge over HGTY on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
HGTY Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $86.4M | +1.4% |
| Q2 2026 | $161.7M | +239% |
| Q1 2026 | $8.5M | -78% |
| Q4 2025 | $23.1M | +$39.7M |
| Q3 2025 | $85.2M | +37% |
| Q2 2025 | $47.7M | -16% |
| Q1 2025 | $38.4M | -28% |
| Q4 2024 | -$16.7M | -$13.3M |
HGTY has the edge over MS on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
MS Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$46B | -$42.7B |
| Q2 2026 | -$2.7B | -123% |
| Q1 2026 | -$7.1B | +$16.9B |
| Q4 2025 | -$2.4B | -120% |
| Q3 2025 | -$3.3B | +$14B |
| Q2 2025 | $11.8B | +368% |
| Q1 2025 | -$24B | -650% |
| Q4 2024 | $11.8B | +$29.6B |
MS's free cash flow was −$58.3B over the past year, against −$3.7B the year before. Free cash flow isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like MS.
HGTY Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.9% | -3.1M shares |
| 1 year | -0.7% | -2.3M shares |
| 3 years | +1.1% | +3.8M shares |
| 5 years | +1065% | +314M shares |
HGTY has 344M diluted shares, down 0.7% from a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q1 2026 | — |
| Q4 2025 | — |
MS Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.2% | -3M shares |
| 1 year | -1.5% | -24M shares |
| 3 years | -4.7% | -77M shares |
| 5 years | -14% | -246M shares |
| Available history | -4.5% | -74M shares |
MS has the edge over HGTY on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
HGTY Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -2.1x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | -0.9x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | 0.8x | Very low |
| Q4 2025 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
| Q3 2025 | 0.1x | Very low |
| Q2 2025 | 0.1x | Very low |
| Q1 2025 | 0.0x | Very low |
| Q4 2024 | 0.0x | Very low |
HGTY has the edge over MS on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
MS Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 7.8x | High |
| Q2 2026 | 7.3x | High |
| Q1 2026 | 8.2x | High |
| Q4 2025 | 8.6x | High |
| Q3 2025 | 8.4x | High |
| Q2 2025 | 8.7x | High |
| Q1 2025 | 8.7x | High |
| Q4 2024 | 7.9x | High |
MS's net debt is about 7.8 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), down from 8.4 years a year ago. Net leverage isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like MS.
HGTY Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 62.8 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 74.7 | Neutral |
HGTY's weekly RSI is 63 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 75 (neutral).
MS Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 45.0 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 18.7 | Oversold |
MS's weekly RSI is 45 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 19 (oversold).
HGTY PE vs Financial Services Sector
| Metric | HGTY | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 244x | 13x | 1,776% above |
| PE % | 99 | 66 | 33 pts above |
HGTY is trading at 244x earnings, a 1776% premium to the Financial Services sector's median of 13x.
MS PE vs Financial Services Sector
| Metric | MS | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 15x | 13x | 15% above |
| PE % | 59 | 63 | 4 pts below |
MS has the edge over HGTY on valuation relative to its sector.
HGTY Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $15.2 | 3.9% above |
| 20 week MA | $13.8 | 15% above |
| 50 week MA | $12.4 | 27% above |
| 100 week MA | $11.4 | 38% above |
| 200 week MA | $10.4 | 52% above |
HGTY has the edge over MS on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
MS Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $186.5 | 1.5% above |
| 20 week MA | $203.3 | 6.9% below |
| 50 week MA | $191.9 | 1.4% below |
| 100 week MA | $164.9 | 15% above |
| 200 week MA | $129.3 | 46% above |
MS's trend is mixed: it's above three of its five weekly moving averages, and 46% above its 200-week average.
HGTY Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | $9.77 | $13.7 | +40% |
| 2022 | $13.7 | $7.95 | -42% |
| 2023 | $7.95 | $7.80 | -1.9% |
| 2024 | $7.80 | $9.83 | +26% |
| 2025 | $9.83 | $13.8 | +41% |
| 2026 YTD | $13.8 | $15.8 | +14% |
HGTY has the edge over MS on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
MS Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $51.1 | $68.1 | +33% |
| 2021 | $68.1 | $99.3 | +46% |
| 2022 | $99.3 | $86.1 | -13% |
| 2023 | $86.1 | $93.3 | +8.3% |
| 2024 | $93.3 | $126.8 | +36% |
| 2025 | $126.8 | $181.9 | +43% |
| 2026 YTD | $181.9 | $189.2 | +4% |
MS has finished higher in five of the last six years. It's up 4% so far in 2026.