HGTY
Hagerty, Inc.
HGTY's fundamentals are weak and it looks expensive: trading at 244x earnings, about five times its usual 50x. Its downside scenario is more than ten times its upside.
HGTY Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Under pressure | |
| Stable | |
| N/A | |
| N/A |
HGTY's profitability is currently stable, but its revenue is under pressure. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like HGTY.
HGTY PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forward | 30x | $15.80 | — |
| Cheap | 43x | $2.60 | -84% |
| Fair | 50x | $3.00 | -81% |
| Expensive | 138x | $8.26 | -48% |
| Current | 244x | $15.80 | — |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
HGTY's PE is in its expensive range at 244x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 30x next year's earnings, in its cheap range.
HGTY Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Returning to profit | |
| Growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect HGTY to return to profit, with revenue growing. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
HGTY Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $0.53 | +775% |
| Q3 2026 | $0.06 | -79% |
| Q2 2026 | $0.09 | -57% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.20 | -4.8% |
HGTY earned $0.06 per share over the past year, down 79% from the year before.
HGTY Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $354.2M | -6.8% |
| Q2 2026 | $354.8M | -3.8% |
| Q1 2026 | $311.8M | -2.4% |
| Q4 2025 | $357.3M | +22% |
| Q3 2025 | $380M | +18% |
| Q2 2025 | $368.7M | +18% |
| Q1 2025 | $319.6M | +18% |
| Q4 2024 | $291.7M | +19% |
HGTY's revenue has held roughly level: $354M last quarter, down 6.8% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 12% | +2.7 points |
| Q2 2026 | 0.6% | -12 points |
| Q1 2026 | -6.7% | -15 points |
| Q4 2025 | 11% | +9 points |
| Q3 2025 | 9% | +5.9 points |
| Q2 2025 | 13% | +0.8 points |
| Q1 2025 | 8.1% | +3.6 points |
| Q4 2024 | 2.1% | +4.7 points |
HGTY's operating margin was 12% last quarter, up 2.7 points from the same quarter a year ago.
HGTY Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $86.4M | +1.4% |
| Q2 2026 | $161.7M | +239% |
| Q1 2026 | $8.5M | -78% |
| Q4 2025 | $23.1M | +$39.7M |
| Q3 2025 | $85.2M | +37% |
| Q2 2025 | $47.7M | -16% |
| Q1 2025 | $38.4M | -28% |
| Q4 2024 | -$16.7M | -$13.3M |
HGTY's free cash flow was $280M over the past year, up 81% from the year before. Free cash flow isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like HGTY.
HGTY Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.9% | -3.1M shares |
| 1 year | -0.7% | -2.3M shares |
| 3 years | +1.1% | +3.8M shares |
| 5 years | +1065% | +314M shares |
HGTY has 344M diluted shares, down 0.7% from a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q1 2026 | — |
| Q4 2025 | — |
HGTY Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -2.1x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | -0.9x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | 0.8x | Very low |
| Q4 2025 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
| Q3 2025 | 0.1x | Very low |
| Q2 2025 | 0.1x | Very low |
| Q1 2025 | 0.0x | Very low |
| Q4 2024 | 0.0x | Very low |
HGTY has more cash than debt. Net leverage isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like HGTY.
HGTY Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 62.8 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 74.7 | Neutral |
HGTY's weekly RSI is 63 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 75 (neutral).
HGTY PE vs Financial Services Sector
| Metric | HGTY | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 244x | 13x | 1,776% above |
| PE % | 99 | 66 | 33 pts above |
HGTY is trading at 244x earnings, a 1776% premium to the Financial Services sector's median of 13x.
HGTY Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $15.2 | 3.9% above |
| 20 week MA | $13.8 | 15% above |
| 50 week MA | $12.4 | 27% above |
| 100 week MA | $11.4 | 38% above |
| 200 week MA | $10.4 | 52% above |
HGTY is in an uptrend: it's above all five of its weekly moving averages, and 52% above its 200-week average.
HGTY Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | $9.77 | $13.7 | +40% |
| 2022 | $13.7 | $7.95 | -42% |
| 2023 | $7.95 | $7.80 | -1.9% |
| 2024 | $7.80 | $9.83 | +26% |
| 2025 | $9.83 | $13.8 | +41% |
| 2026 YTD | $13.8 | $15.8 | +14% |
HGTY has finished higher in three of the last five years. It's up 14% so far in 2026.