HG
Hamilton Insurance Group, Ltd.
HG's outlook is improving, though it still trails on the overall score.
MS
Morgan Stanley
MS has the edge over HG overall, supported by stronger modeled upside and lower modeled downside.
HG Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| N/A | |
| N/A |
HG's revenue and profitability are currently healthy. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like HG.
MS Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| N/A | |
| N/A |
MS's revenue and profitability are currently healthy. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like MS.
HG PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 5.2x | $27.30 | -30% |
| Fair | 6.2x | $32.22 | -17% |
| Expensive | 6.8x | $35.17 | -9.2% |
| Current | 7.4x | $38.74 | — |
| Forward | 8.3x | $38.74 | — |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
HG has the edge over MS in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
MS PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 11x | $134 | -29% |
| Fair | 14x | $178 | -5.7% |
| Forward | 14x | $189 | — |
| Current | 15x | $189 | — |
| Expensive | 18x | $223 | +18% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
MS's PE is in its fair range at 15x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 14x next year's earnings.
HG Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Deteriorating | |
| Growth | |
| Growth | |
| Stable | |
| Limited | |
| High |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for HG, with profitability holding steady.
MS Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Growth | |
| Growth | |
| Improving | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
MS has the edge over HG on the outlook, with more favorable valuation and profitability expectations.
HG Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $4.67 | -10% |
| Q3 2026 | $5.21 | +23% |
| Q2 2026 | $5.72 | +57% |
| Q1 2026 | $6.09 | +99% |
| Q4 2025 | $5.55 | +51% |
HG has the edge over MS on earnings, with stronger typical year-over-year growth.
MS Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $13.39 | +6.3% |
| Q3 2026 | $12.60 | +29% |
| Q2 2026 | $12.37 | +40% |
| Q1 2026 | $11.04 | +29% |
| Q4 2025 | $10.21 | +28% |
| Q3 2025 | $9.76 | +48% |
| Q2 2025 | $8.84 | +45% |
| Q1 2025 | $8.53 | +55% |
| Q4 2024 | $7.95 | +53% |
MS's earnings per share have climbed steadily: $12.60 over the past year, up 29% from the year before, and higher year over year for 10 quarters in a row.
HG Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $828M | +24% |
| Q2 2026 | $839.6M | +13% |
| Q1 2026 | $758.9M | -1.3% |
| Q4 2025 | $728.3M | +28% |
| Q3 2025 | $667.7M | +30% |
| Q2 2025 | $740.8M | +26% |
| Q1 2025 | $768.8M | +17% |
| Q4 2024 | $570.5M | +15% |
HG's revenue is growing: $828M last quarter, up 24% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 27% | +0.4 points |
| Q2 2026 | 31% | -5.9 points |
| Q1 2026 | 29% | +4.9 points |
| Q4 2025 | 26% | +13 points |
| Q3 2025 | 27% | +15 points |
| Q2 2025 | 37% | +2 points |
| Q1 2025 | 24% | -18 points |
| Q4 2024 | 13% | -7 points |
HG's operating margin was 27% last quarter, about level with the same quarter a year ago.
MS Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $20.3B | +12% |
| Q2 2026 | $21.3B | +27% |
| Q1 2026 | $20.6B | +16% |
| Q4 2025 | $17.9B | +10% |
| Q3 2025 | $18.2B | +18% |
| Q2 2025 | $16.8B | +12% |
| Q1 2025 | $17.7B | +17% |
| Q4 2024 | $16.2B | +26% |
MS's revenue has grown year over year for 14 quarters in a row: $20.3B last quarter, up 12% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 32% | -1.2 points |
| Q2 2026 | 34% | +6.9 points |
| Q1 2026 | 34% | +2.8 points |
| Q4 2025 | 32% | +2 points |
| Q3 2025 | 33% | +5.6 points |
| Q2 2025 | 28% | +0.4 points |
| Q1 2025 | 31% | +2.2 points |
| Q4 2024 | 30% | +14 points |
MS has the edge over HG on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
HG Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $267.2M | -9.6% |
| Q2 2026 | $125.3M | -43% |
| Q1 2026 | $100.8M | +189% |
| Q4 2025 | $293.4M | +3.3% |
| Q3 2025 | $295.6M | +84% |
| Q2 2025 | $218.4M | +40% |
| Q1 2025 | $34.9M | -78% |
| Q4 2024 | $284.1M | +701% |
HG has the edge over MS on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
MS Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$46B | -$42.7B |
| Q2 2026 | -$2.7B | -123% |
| Q1 2026 | -$7.1B | +$16.9B |
| Q4 2025 | -$2.4B | -120% |
| Q3 2025 | -$3.3B | +$14B |
| Q2 2025 | $11.8B | +368% |
| Q1 2025 | -$24B | -650% |
| Q4 2024 | $11.8B | +$29.6B |
MS's free cash flow was −$58.3B over the past year, against −$3.7B the year before. Free cash flow isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like MS.
HG Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.2% | -178K shares |
| 1 year | -3.5% | -3.7M shares |
| 3 years | -8.3% | -9.1M shares |
HG has the edge over MS on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $3.1M |
| Q2 2026 | $22.2M |
| Q1 2026 | $33.1M |
| Q4 2025 | $20.2M |
| Q3 2025 | $40.5M |
| Q2 2025 | $35M |
| Q1 2025 | $16.9M |
| Q4 2024 | $27M |
HG spent $79M buying back its own shares over the past year, down 34% from the year before.
MS Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.2% | -3M shares |
| 1 year | -1.5% | -24M shares |
| 3 years | -4.7% | -77M shares |
| 5 years | -14% | -246M shares |
| Available history | -4.5% | -74M shares |
MS has 1.6B diluted shares, down 1.5% from a year ago.
HG Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -1.1x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | -0.7x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -0.8x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | -1.1x | Net Cash |
| Q3 2025 | -1.1x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -1.4x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -1.3x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | -1.3x | Net Cash |
HG has the edge over MS on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
MS Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 7.8x | High |
| Q2 2026 | 7.3x | High |
| Q1 2026 | 8.2x | High |
| Q4 2025 | 8.6x | High |
| Q3 2025 | 8.4x | High |
| Q2 2025 | 8.7x | High |
| Q1 2025 | 8.7x | High |
| Q4 2024 | 7.9x | High |
MS's net debt is about 7.8 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), down from 8.4 years a year ago. Net leverage isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like MS.
HG Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 68.3 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 74.2 | Neutral |
HG's weekly RSI is 68 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 74 (neutral).
MS Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 45.0 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 18.7 | Oversold |
MS's weekly RSI is 45 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 19 (oversold).
HG PE vs Financial Services Sector
| Metric | HG | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 7.4x | 13x | 43% below |
| PE % | 100 | 40 | 60 pts above |
HG has the edge over MS on valuation relative to its sector.
MS PE vs Financial Services Sector
| Metric | MS | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 15x | 13x | 15% above |
| PE % | 59 | 63 | 4 pts below |
MS is trading at 15x earnings, a 15% premium to the Financial Services sector's median of 13x.
HG Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $35.7 | 8.7% above |
| 20 week MA | $35.4 | 9.3% above |
| 50 week MA | $32.0 | 21% above |
| 100 week MA | $26.8 | 45% above |
HG has stronger trend alignment. HG is above 4 of 4 weekly averages versus MS above 3 of 5.
MS Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $186.5 | 1.5% above |
| 20 week MA | $203.3 | 6.9% below |
| 50 week MA | $191.9 | 1.4% below |
| 100 week MA | $164.9 | 15% above |
| 200 week MA | $129.3 | 46% above |
MS's trend is mixed: it's above three of its five weekly moving averages, and 46% above its 200-week average.
HG Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | $15.2 | $15.0 | -1.6% |
| 2024 | $15.0 | $18.7 | +25% |
| 2025 | $18.7 | $28.2 | +51% |
| 2026 YTD | $28.2 | $38.7 | +37% |
HG has the edge over MS on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
MS Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $51.1 | $68.1 | +33% |
| 2021 | $68.1 | $99.3 | +46% |
| 2022 | $99.3 | $86.1 | -13% |
| 2023 | $86.1 | $93.3 | +8.3% |
| 2024 | $93.3 | $126.8 | +36% |
| 2025 | $126.8 | $181.9 | +43% |
| 2026 YTD | $181.9 | $189.2 | +4% |
MS has finished higher in five of the last six years. It's up 4% so far in 2026.