HFWA
Heritage Financial Corporation
HFWA has a slight edge over MS overall, supported by stronger valuation and stronger modeled upside.
MS
Morgan Stanley
MS has slightly lower modeled downside risk, despite its lower overall score.
HFWA Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Strong | |
| Strong | |
| N/A | |
| N/A |
HFWA's revenue and profitability are currently strong. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like HFWA.
MS Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| N/A | |
| N/A |
MS's revenue and profitability are currently healthy. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like MS.
HFWA PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 9.1x | $18.36 | -35% |
| Forward | 11x | $28.21 | — |
| Fair | 14x | $27.25 | -3.4% |
| Current | 14x | $28.21 | — |
| Expensive | 18x | $35.45 | +26% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
HFWA has the edge over MS in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
MS PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 11x | $134 | -29% |
| Fair | 14x | $178 | -5.7% |
| Forward | 14x | $189 | — |
| Current | 15x | $189 | — |
| Expensive | 18x | $223 | +18% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
MS's PE is in its fair range at 15x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 14x next year's earnings.
HFWA Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for HFWA, with profitability improving.
MS Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Growth | |
| Growth | |
| Improving | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for MS, with profitability improving.
HFWA Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $2.50 | +24% |
| Q3 2026 | $2.01 | +22% |
| Q2 2026 | $2.10 | +47% |
| Q1 2026 | $2.04 | +38% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.96 | +58% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.65 | +53% |
| Q2 2025 | $1.43 | +13% |
| Q1 2025 | $1.48 | +11% |
| Q4 2024 | $1.24 | -29% |
HFWA's earnings per share have fallen from their peak: $2.01 over the past year, against $2.84 in late 2021.
MS Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $13.39 | +6.3% |
| Q3 2026 | $12.60 | +29% |
| Q2 2026 | $12.37 | +40% |
| Q1 2026 | $11.04 | +29% |
| Q4 2025 | $10.21 | +28% |
| Q3 2025 | $9.76 | +48% |
| Q2 2025 | $8.84 | +45% |
| Q1 2025 | $8.53 | +55% |
| Q4 2024 | $7.95 | +53% |
MS has the edge over HFWA on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
HFWA Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $86.5M | +32% |
| Q2 2026 | $84.1M | +49% |
| Q1 2026 | $77.9M | +35% |
| Q4 2025 | $66.3M | +16% |
| Q3 2025 | $65.7M | +20% |
| Q2 2025 | $56.5M | +0.3% |
| Q1 2025 | $57.6M | +18% |
| Q4 2024 | $57.1M | +12% |
HFWA has the edge over MS on sales, with stronger typical year-over-year growth.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 26% | -8.2 points |
| Q2 2026 | 25% | -1 points |
| Q1 2026 | 29% | +0.7 points |
| Q4 2025 | 39% | +10 points |
| Q3 2025 | 34% | +10 points |
| Q2 2025 | 26% | -2.8 points |
| Q1 2025 | 28% | +14 points |
| Q4 2024 | 29% | +16 points |
HFWA's operating margin was 26% last quarter, down 8.2 points from the same quarter a year ago.
MS Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $20.3B | +12% |
| Q2 2026 | $21.3B | +27% |
| Q1 2026 | $20.6B | +16% |
| Q4 2025 | $17.9B | +10% |
| Q3 2025 | $18.2B | +18% |
| Q2 2025 | $16.8B | +12% |
| Q1 2025 | $17.7B | +17% |
| Q4 2024 | $16.2B | +26% |
MS's revenue has grown year over year for 14 quarters in a row: $20.3B last quarter, up 12% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 32% | -1.2 points |
| Q2 2026 | 34% | +6.9 points |
| Q1 2026 | 34% | +2.8 points |
| Q4 2025 | 32% | +2 points |
| Q3 2025 | 33% | +5.6 points |
| Q2 2025 | 28% | +0.4 points |
| Q1 2025 | 31% | +2.2 points |
| Q4 2024 | 30% | +14 points |
MS has the edge over HFWA on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
HFWA Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $28.4M | +16% |
| Q2 2026 | $21.1M | +0.9% |
| Q1 2026 | $12.7M | -30% |
| Q4 2025 | $22.3M | +12% |
| Q3 2025 | $24.4M | +5% |
| Q2 2025 | $20.9M | +250% |
| Q1 2025 | $18.1M | +51% |
| Q4 2024 | $19.8M | -34% |
HFWA has the edge over MS on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
MS Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$46B | -$42.7B |
| Q2 2026 | -$2.7B | -123% |
| Q1 2026 | -$7.1B | +$16.9B |
| Q4 2025 | -$2.4B | -120% |
| Q3 2025 | -$3.3B | +$14B |
| Q2 2025 | $11.8B | +368% |
| Q1 2025 | -$24B | -650% |
| Q4 2024 | $11.8B | +$29.6B |
MS's free cash flow was −$58.3B over the past year, against −$3.7B the year before. Free cash flow isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like MS.
HFWA Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.8% | -329K shares |
| 1 year | +20% | +6.8M shares |
| 3 years | +17% | +6.1M shares |
| 5 years | +15% | +5.3M shares |
| Available history | +11% | +4.2M shares |
HFWA has 41M diluted shares, up 20% from a year ago, despite $21M in buybacks over the past year.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $10.3M |
| Q2 2026 | $10.1M |
| Q1 2026 | $960,000 |
| Q4 2025 | $44,000 |
| Q3 2025 | $24,000 |
| Q2 2025 | $4.6M |
| Q1 2025 | $838,000 |
| Q4 2024 | $4.4M |
HFWA spent $21M buying back its own shares over the past year, up 118% from the year before.
MS Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.2% | -3M shares |
| 1 year | -1.5% | -24M shares |
| 3 years | -4.7% | -77M shares |
| 5 years | -14% | -246M shares |
| Available history | -4.5% | -74M shares |
MS has the edge over HFWA on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
HFWA Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -0.7x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -2.9x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | -2.7x | Net Cash |
| Q3 2025 | -1.5x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | 0.2x | Very low |
| Q1 2025 | 0.3x | Very low |
| Q4 2024 | 4.9x | High |
HFWA has the edge over MS on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
MS Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 7.8x | High |
| Q2 2026 | 7.3x | High |
| Q1 2026 | 8.2x | High |
| Q4 2025 | 8.6x | High |
| Q3 2025 | 8.4x | High |
| Q2 2025 | 8.7x | High |
| Q1 2025 | 8.7x | High |
| Q4 2024 | 7.9x | High |
MS's net debt is about 7.8 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), down from 8.4 years a year ago. Net leverage isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like MS.
HFWA Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 50.1 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 45.1 | Neutral |
HFWA's weekly RSI is 50 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 45 (neutral).
MS Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 45.0 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 18.7 | Oversold |
MS's weekly RSI is 45 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 19 (oversold).
HFWA PE vs Financial Services Sector
| Metric | HFWA | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 14x | 13x | 7.8% above |
| PE % | 55 | 63 | 8 pts below |
HFWA has the edge over MS on valuation relative to its sector.
MS PE vs Financial Services Sector
| Metric | MS | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 15x | 13x | 15% above |
| PE % | 59 | 63 | 4 pts below |
MS is trading at 15x earnings, a 15% premium to the Financial Services sector's median of 13x.
HFWA Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $28.2 | 0% above |
| 20 week MA | $28.9 | 2.4% below |
| 50 week MA | $27.4 | 2.9% above |
| 100 week MA | $25.5 | 10% above |
| 200 week MA | $22.8 | 24% above |
HFWA has the edge over MS on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
MS Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $186.5 | 1.5% above |
| 20 week MA | $203.3 | 6.9% below |
| 50 week MA | $191.9 | 1.4% below |
| 100 week MA | $164.9 | 15% above |
| 200 week MA | $129.3 | 46% above |
MS's trend is mixed: it's above three of its five weekly moving averages, and 46% above its 200-week average.
HFWA Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $28.2 | $23.0 | -18% |
| 2021 | $23.0 | $24.0 | +4.4% |
| 2022 | $24.0 | $30.8 | +28% |
| 2023 | $30.8 | $21.4 | -31% |
| 2024 | $21.4 | $24.3 | +14% |
| 2025 | $24.3 | $24.5 | +0.6% |
| 2026 YTD | $24.5 | $28.2 | +15% |
HFWA has the edge over MS on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
MS Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $51.1 | $68.1 | +33% |
| 2021 | $68.1 | $99.3 | +46% |
| 2022 | $99.3 | $86.1 | -13% |
| 2023 | $86.1 | $93.3 | +8.3% |
| 2024 | $93.3 | $126.8 | +36% |
| 2025 | $126.8 | $181.9 | +43% |
| 2026 YTD | $181.9 | $189.2 | +4% |
MS has finished higher in five of the last six years. It's up 4% so far in 2026.