GSHD
Goosehead Insurance, Inc
GSHD has the edge over MS overall, supported by stronger valuation and stronger modeled upside.
MS
Morgan Stanley
MS has lower modeled downside risk, despite its lower overall score.
GSHD Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| N/A | |
| N/A |
GSHD's revenue and profitability are currently healthy. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like GSHD.
MS Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| N/A | |
| N/A |
MS's revenue and profitability are currently healthy. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like MS.
GSHD PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forward | 19x | $45.66 | — |
| Current | 33x | $45.66 | — |
| Cheap | 70x | $95.30 | +109% |
| Fair | 187x | $256 | +461% |
| Expensive | 400x | $548 | +1100% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
GSHD has the edge over MS in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
MS PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 11x | $134 | -29% |
| Fair | 14x | $178 | -5.7% |
| Forward | 14x | $189 | — |
| Current | 15x | $189 | — |
| Expensive | 18x | $223 | +18% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
MS's PE is in its fair range at 15x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 14x next year's earnings.
GSHD Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for GSHD, with profitability improving.
MS Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Growth | |
| Growth | |
| Improving | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for MS, with profitability improving.
GSHD Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $2.35 | +71% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.37 | +20% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.14 | -5% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.04 | -10% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.14 | +63% |
| Q2 2025 | $1.14 | +65% |
| Q1 2025 | $1.20 | +100% |
| Q4 2024 | $1.16 | +111% |
| Q3 2024 | $0.70 | +52% |
GSHD earned $1.37 per share over the past year, up 20% from the year before.
MS Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $13.39 | +6.3% |
| Q3 2026 | $12.60 | +29% |
| Q2 2026 | $12.37 | +40% |
| Q1 2026 | $11.04 | +29% |
| Q4 2025 | $10.21 | +28% |
| Q3 2025 | $9.76 | +48% |
| Q2 2025 | $8.84 | +45% |
| Q1 2025 | $8.53 | +55% |
| Q4 2024 | $7.95 | +53% |
MS's earnings per share have climbed steadily: $12.60 over the past year, up 29% from the year before, and higher year over year for 10 quarters in a row.
GSHD Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $113.4M | +21% |
| Q1 2026 | $93.1M | +23% |
| Q4 2025 | $105.3M | +12% |
| Q3 2025 | $90.4M | +16% |
| Q2 2025 | $94M | +20% |
| Q1 2025 | $75.6M | +17% |
| Q4 2024 | $93.9M | +49% |
| Q3 2024 | $78M | +9.9% |
GSHD has the edge over MS on sales, with stronger typical year-over-year growth.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | 23% | +6.8 points |
| Q1 2026 | 16% | +7.4 points |
| Q4 2025 | 29% | -0.3 points |
| Q3 2025 | 24% | +2.5 points |
| Q2 2025 | 17% | -3.1 points |
| Q1 2025 | 8.8% | +6.5 points |
| Q4 2024 | 30% | +19 points |
| Q3 2024 | 21% | +1.9 points |
GSHD's operating margin was 23% last quarter, up 6.8 points from the same quarter a year ago.
MS Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $20.3B | +12% |
| Q2 2026 | $21.3B | +27% |
| Q1 2026 | $20.6B | +16% |
| Q4 2025 | $17.9B | +10% |
| Q3 2025 | $18.2B | +18% |
| Q2 2025 | $16.8B | +12% |
| Q1 2025 | $17.7B | +17% |
| Q4 2024 | $16.2B | +26% |
MS's revenue has grown year over year for 14 quarters in a row: $20.3B last quarter, up 12% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 32% | -1.2 points |
| Q2 2026 | 34% | +6.9 points |
| Q1 2026 | 34% | +2.8 points |
| Q4 2025 | 32% | +2 points |
| Q3 2025 | 33% | +5.6 points |
| Q2 2025 | 28% | +0.4 points |
| Q1 2025 | 31% | +2.2 points |
| Q4 2024 | 30% | +14 points |
MS has the edge over GSHD on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
GSHD Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $14.4M | -47% |
| Q1 2026 | $21.2M | +42% |
| Q4 2025 | $20.3M | +68% |
| Q3 2025 | $23.7M | -15% |
| Q2 2025 | $27.2M | +44% |
| Q1 2025 | $14.9M | +28% |
| Q4 2024 | $12.1M | -7.3% |
| Q3 2024 | $28M | +35% |
GSHD has the edge over MS on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
MS Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$46B | -$42.7B |
| Q2 2026 | -$2.7B | -123% |
| Q1 2026 | -$7.1B | +$16.9B |
| Q4 2025 | -$2.4B | -120% |
| Q3 2025 | -$3.3B | +$14B |
| Q2 2025 | $11.8B | +368% |
| Q1 2025 | -$24B | -650% |
| Q4 2024 | $11.8B | +$29.6B |
MS's free cash flow was −$58.3B over the past year, against −$3.7B the year before. Free cash flow isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like MS.
GSHD Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -2.5% | -930K shares |
| 1 year | -7.4% | -2.8M shares |
| 3 years | +54% | +12.5M shares |
| 5 years | +94% | +17.3M shares |
| Available history | +117% | +19.3M shares |
GSHD has the edge over MS on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $3.9M |
| Q1 2026 | $49.8M |
| Q4 2025 | $23.5M |
| Q3 2025 | $57.7M |
| Q4 2024 | — |
| Q3 2024 | — |
| Q4 2021 | — |
GSHD spent $135M buying back its own shares over the past year.
MS Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.2% | -3M shares |
| 1 year | -1.5% | -24M shares |
| 3 years | -4.7% | -77M shares |
| 5 years | -14% | -246M shares |
| Available history | -4.5% | -74M shares |
MS has 1.6B diluted shares, down 1.5% from a year ago.
GSHD Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | 2.8x | Moderate |
| Q1 2026 | 3.1x | Elevated |
| Q4 2025 | 3.0x | Elevated |
| Q3 2025 | 2.9x | Moderate |
| Q2 2025 | 2.6x | Moderate |
| Q1 2025 | 2.9x | Moderate |
| Q4 2024 | 0.5x | Very low |
| Q3 2024 | 0.9x | Very low |
GSHD has the edge over MS on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
MS Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 7.8x | High |
| Q2 2026 | 7.3x | High |
| Q1 2026 | 8.2x | High |
| Q4 2025 | 8.6x | High |
| Q3 2025 | 8.4x | High |
| Q2 2025 | 8.7x | High |
| Q1 2025 | 8.7x | High |
| Q4 2024 | 7.9x | High |
MS's net debt is about 7.8 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), down from 8.4 years a year ago. Net leverage isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like MS.
GSHD Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 43.8 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 21.4 | Neutral |
GSHD's weekly RSI is 44 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 21 (neutral).
MS Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 45.0 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 18.7 | Oversold |
MS's weekly RSI is 45 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 19 (oversold).
GSHD PE vs Financial Services Sector
| Metric | GSHD | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 33x | 13x | 156% above |
| PE % | 2 | 63 | 61 pts below |
GSHD is trading at 33x earnings, a 156% premium to the Financial Services sector's median of 13x.
MS PE vs Financial Services Sector
| Metric | MS | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 15x | 13x | 15% above |
| PE % | 59 | 63 | 4 pts below |
MS has the edge over GSHD on valuation relative to its sector.
GSHD Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $47.3 | 3.4% below |
| 20 week MA | $55.6 | 18% below |
| 50 week MA | $53.7 | 15% below |
| 100 week MA | $74.9 | 39% below |
| 200 week MA | $72.9 | 37% below |
GSHD is in a downtrend: it's below all five of its weekly moving averages, and 37% below its 200-week average.
MS Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $186.5 | 1.5% above |
| 20 week MA | $203.3 | 6.9% below |
| 50 week MA | $191.9 | 1.4% below |
| 100 week MA | $164.9 | 15% above |
| 200 week MA | $129.3 | 46% above |
MS has the edge over GSHD on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
GSHD Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $42.1 | $124.2 | +195% |
| 2021 | $124.2 | $138.1 | +11% |
| 2022 | $138.1 | $38.3 | -72% |
| 2023 | $38.3 | $75.8 | +98% |
| 2024 | $75.8 | $104.2 | +37% |
| 2025 | $104.2 | $75.3 | -28% |
| 2026 YTD | $75.3 | $45.7 | -39% |
GSHD's yearly returns have swung widely, from +195% in 2020 to −72% in 2022. It's down 39% so far in 2026.
MS Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $51.1 | $68.1 | +33% |
| 2021 | $68.1 | $99.3 | +46% |
| 2022 | $99.3 | $86.1 | -13% |
| 2023 | $86.1 | $93.3 | +8.3% |
| 2024 | $93.3 | $126.8 | +36% |
| 2025 | $126.8 | $181.9 | +43% |
| 2026 YTD | $181.9 | $189.2 | +4% |
MS has the edge over GSHD on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.