GPK
Graphic Packaging Holding Company
GPK trails on the overall score without a compensating advantage in the available component scores.
TSLA
Tesla, Inc.
TSLA has the edge over GPK overall, supported by lower modeled downside and stronger modeled upside.
GPK Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Stable | |
| Healthy | |
| Weak |
GPK's cash flow is currently healthy, and its revenue and profitability are stable, but its balance sheet is weak.
TSLA Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Stable | |
| Under pressure | |
| Strong |
TSLA's revenue and balance sheet are currently healthy, and its profitability is stable, but its cash flow is under pressure.
GPK PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 11x | $2.73 | -75% |
| Forward | 12x | $10.79 | — |
| Fair | 14x | $3.54 | -67% |
| Expensive | 27x | $6.70 | -38% |
| Current | 43x | $10.79 | — |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
GPK has the edge over TSLA in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
TSLA PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 60x | $54.70 | -86% |
| Fair | 174x | $158 | -60% |
| Forward | 196x | $397 | — |
| Expensive | 415x | $378 | -4.9% |
| Current | 437x | $397 | — |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
TSLA's PE is in its expensive range at 437x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 196x next year's earnings, in its fair range.
GPK Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Growth | |
| Stable | |
| Stable | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect GPK's earnings to grow, with its revenue and profitability holding steady. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
TSLA Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Growth | |
| Growth | |
| Stable | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
TSLA has the edge over GPK on the outlook, with more favorable revenue expectations.
GPK Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $0.89 | +257% |
| Q3 2026 | $0.25 | -85% |
| Q2 2026 | $0.66 | -63% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.92 | -55% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.48 | -31% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.70 | -27% |
| Q2 2025 | $1.77 | -24% |
| Q1 2025 | $2.05 | -6.8% |
| Q4 2024 | $2.16 | -7.7% |
GPK has the edge over TSLA on earnings, with stronger typical year-over-year growth.
TSLA Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $2.03 | +123% |
| Q3 2026 | $0.91 | -39% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.08 | -38% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.09 | -40% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.08 | -47% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.50 | -59% |
| Q2 2025 | $1.73 | -51% |
| Q1 2025 | $1.82 | -53% |
| Q4 2024 | $2.04 | -53% |
TSLA's earnings per share have fallen from their peak: $0.91 over the past year, against $4.30 in late 2023.
GPK Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $2.2B | +0.1% |
| Q2 2026 | $2.2B | -0.7% |
| Q1 2026 | $2.2B | +1.7% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.1B | +0.4% |
| Q3 2025 | $2.2B | -1.2% |
| Q2 2025 | $2.2B | -1.5% |
| Q1 2025 | $2.1B | -6.2% |
| Q4 2024 | $2.1B | -6.8% |
GPK's revenue grew through 2024 and has held roughly level since: $2.2B last quarter, about level with the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 4.6% | -6.1 points |
| Q2 2026 | 4.3% | -4.4 points |
| Q1 2026 | 0.9% | -9.5 points |
| Q4 2025 | 7.4% | -4 points |
| Q3 2025 | 11% | -1.9 points |
| Q2 2025 | 8.8% | -5.7 points |
| Q1 2025 | 10% | -1.9 points |
| Q4 2024 | 11% | -1.5 points |
GPK has the edge over TSLA on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
TSLA Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $28B | -0.2% |
| Q2 2026 | $28.2B | +26% |
| Q1 2026 | $22.4B | +16% |
| Q4 2025 | $24.9B | -3.1% |
| Q3 2025 | $28.1B | +12% |
| Q2 2025 | $22.5B | -12% |
| Q1 2025 | $19.3B | -9.2% |
| Q4 2024 | $25.7B | +2.1% |
TSLA has the edge over GPK on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 2.6% | -3.2 points |
| Q2 2026 | 1.4% | -2.7 points |
| Q1 2026 | 4.2% | +2.1 points |
| Q4 2025 | 5.7% | -0.5 points |
| Q3 2025 | 5.8% | -5 points |
| Q2 2025 | 4.1% | -2.2 points |
| Q1 2025 | 2.1% | -3.4 points |
| Q4 2024 | 6.2% | -2 points |
TSLA's operating margin was 2.6% last quarter, down 3.2 points from the same quarter a year ago, near the bottom of its range since 2019.
GPK Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $250M | +10% |
| Q2 2026 | $158M | -41% |
| Q1 2026 | -$113M | +$61M |
| Q4 2025 | $521M | +6.5% |
| Q3 2025 | $227M | +21% |
| Q2 2025 | $267M | +66% |
| Q1 2025 | -$174M | -5900% |
| Q4 2024 | $489M | +11% |
GPK has the edge over TSLA on cash flow, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
TSLA Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1.5B | -62% |
| Q2 2026 | -$1.1B | -848% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.4B | +117% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.4B | -30% |
| Q3 2025 | $4B | +46% |
| Q2 2025 | $146M | -89% |
| Q1 2025 | $664M | +$3.2B |
| Q4 2024 | $2B | -1.6% |
TSLA still generates free cash flow, though less than at its 2025 peak: $3.3B over the past year.
GPK Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +0.1% | +300K shares |
| 1 year | -0.2% | -600K shares |
| 3 years | -3.9% | -12.2M shares |
| 5 years | -3.9% | -12M shares |
| Available history | +0.7% | +2.2M shares |
GPK has the edge over TSLA on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | — |
| Q4 2025 | — |
| Q3 2025 | $40M |
| Q4 2024 | — |
| Q3 2024 | — |
| Q2 2024 | $200M |
| Q1 2024 | — |
| Q4 2023 | $17M |
TSLA Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | 0% | +1M shares |
| 1 year | +0.4% | +15M shares |
| 3 years | +1.4% | +48M shares |
| 5 years | +5.1% | +172M shares |
| Available history | +33% | +886M shares |
TSLA has 3.5B diluted shares, about the same as a year ago.
GPK Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 5.4x | High |
| Q2 2026 | 5.1x | High |
| Q1 2026 | 4.9x | High |
| Q4 2025 | 4.0x | Elevated |
| Q3 2025 | 4.1x | High |
| Q2 2025 | 3.9x | Elevated |
| Q1 2025 | 3.5x | Elevated |
| Q4 2024 | 3.0x | Elevated |
GPK's net debt is about 5.4 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), up from 4.1 years a year ago.
TSLA Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -1.1x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | -0.8x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -0.9x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | -1.1x | Net Cash |
| Q3 2025 | -1.4x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -1.1x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -1.1x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | -1.0x | Net Cash |
TSLA has the edge over GPK on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
GPK Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 52.2 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 53.3 | Neutral |
GPK's weekly RSI is 52 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 53 (neutral).
TSLA Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 54.3 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 72.6 | Neutral |
TSLA's weekly RSI is 54 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 73 (neutral).
GPK PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector
| Metric | GPK | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 43x | 18x | 140% above |
| PE % | 100 | 47 | 53 pts above |
GPK has the edge over TSLA on valuation relative to its sector.
TSLA PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector
| Metric | TSLA | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 437x | 18x | 2,324% above |
| PE % | 84 | 47 | 37 pts above |
TSLA is trading at 437x earnings, a 2324% premium to the Consumer Cyclical sector's median of 18x.
GPK Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $9.35 | 15% above |
| 20 week MA | $10.2 | 5.4% above |
| 50 week MA | $11.3 | 4.7% below |
| 100 week MA | $17.0 | 37% below |
| 200 week MA | $21.4 | 50% below |
GPK has bounced recently, but its long-term trend is still down: it's above its 8- and 20-week averages, but 50% below its 200-week average.
TSLA Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $376.0 | 5.7% above |
| 20 week MA | $364.0 | 9.2% above |
| 50 week MA | $393.6 | 1% above |
| 100 week MA | $372.1 | 6.8% above |
| 200 week MA | $296.9 | 34% above |
TSLA has the edge over GPK on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
GPK Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $16.7 | $16.9 | +1.4% |
| 2021 | $16.9 | $18.7 | +10% |
| 2022 | $18.7 | $22.2 | +19% |
| 2023 | $22.2 | $24.7 | +11% |
| 2024 | $24.7 | $27.5 | +11% |
| 2025 | $27.5 | $15.2 | -45% |
| 2026 YTD | $15.2 | $10.8 | -29% |
GPK has finished higher in five of the last six years. It's down 29% so far in 2026.
TSLA Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $28.7 | $220.6 | +669% |
| 2021 | $220.6 | $355.7 | +61% |
| 2022 | $355.7 | $123.2 | -65% |
| 2023 | $123.2 | $248.5 | +102% |
| 2024 | $248.5 | $431.7 | +74% |
| 2025 | $431.7 | $475.2 | +10% |
| 2026 YTD | $475.2 | $397.5 | -16% |
TSLA has the edge over GPK on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.