GPK
Graphic Packaging Holding Company
GPK's fundamentals are weak and it looks expensive: trading at 43x earnings, about three times its usual 14x. Its downside scenario is more than ten times its upside.
GPK Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Stable | |
| Healthy | |
| Weak |
GPK's cash flow is currently healthy, and its revenue and profitability are stable, but its balance sheet is weak.
GPK PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 11x | $2.73 | -75% |
| Forward | 12x | $10.79 | — |
| Fair | 14x | $3.54 | -67% |
| Expensive | 27x | $6.70 | -38% |
| Current | 43x | $10.79 | — |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
GPK's PE is in its expensive range at 43x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 12x next year's earnings, in its cheap range.
GPK Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Growth | |
| Stable | |
| Stable | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect GPK's earnings to grow, with its revenue and profitability holding steady. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
GPK Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $0.89 | +257% |
| Q3 2026 | $0.25 | -85% |
| Q2 2026 | $0.66 | -63% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.92 | -55% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.48 | -31% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.70 | -27% |
| Q2 2025 | $1.77 | -24% |
| Q1 2025 | $2.05 | -6.8% |
| Q4 2024 | $2.16 | -7.7% |
GPK's earnings per share have fallen from their peak: $0.25 over the past year, against $2.34 in late 2023.
GPK Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $2.2B | +0.1% |
| Q2 2026 | $2.2B | -0.7% |
| Q1 2026 | $2.2B | +1.7% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.1B | +0.4% |
| Q3 2025 | $2.2B | -1.2% |
| Q2 2025 | $2.2B | -1.5% |
| Q1 2025 | $2.1B | -6.2% |
| Q4 2024 | $2.1B | -6.8% |
GPK's revenue grew through 2024 and has held roughly level since: $2.2B last quarter, about level with the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 4.6% | -6.1 points |
| Q2 2026 | 4.3% | -4.4 points |
| Q1 2026 | 0.9% | -9.5 points |
| Q4 2025 | 7.4% | -4 points |
| Q3 2025 | 11% | -1.9 points |
| Q2 2025 | 8.8% | -5.7 points |
| Q1 2025 | 10% | -1.9 points |
| Q4 2024 | 11% | -1.5 points |
GPK's operating margin was 4.6% last quarter, down 6.1 points from the same quarter a year ago.
GPK Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $250M | +10% |
| Q2 2026 | $158M | -41% |
| Q1 2026 | -$113M | +$61M |
| Q4 2025 | $521M | +6.5% |
| Q3 2025 | $227M | +21% |
| Q2 2025 | $267M | +66% |
| Q1 2025 | -$174M | -5900% |
| Q4 2024 | $489M | +11% |
GPK still generates free cash flow, though less than at its 2025 peak: $816M over the past year.
GPK Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +0.1% | +300K shares |
| 1 year | -0.2% | -600K shares |
| 3 years | -3.9% | -12.2M shares |
| 5 years | -3.9% | -12M shares |
| Available history | +0.7% | +2.2M shares |
GPK has 297M diluted shares, about the same as a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | — |
| Q4 2025 | — |
| Q3 2025 | $40M |
| Q4 2024 | — |
| Q3 2024 | — |
| Q2 2024 | $200M |
| Q1 2024 | — |
| Q4 2023 | $17M |
GPK Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 5.4x | High |
| Q2 2026 | 5.1x | High |
| Q1 2026 | 4.9x | High |
| Q4 2025 | 4.0x | Elevated |
| Q3 2025 | 4.1x | High |
| Q2 2025 | 3.9x | Elevated |
| Q1 2025 | 3.5x | Elevated |
| Q4 2024 | 3.0x | Elevated |
GPK's net debt is about 5.4 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), up from 4.1 years a year ago.
GPK Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 52.2 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 53.3 | Neutral |
GPK's weekly RSI is 52 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 53 (neutral).
GPK PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector
| Metric | GPK | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 43x | 18x | 140% above |
| PE % | 100 | 47 | 53 pts above |
GPK is trading at 43x earnings, a 140% premium to the Consumer Cyclical sector's median of 18x.
GPK Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $9.35 | 15% above |
| 20 week MA | $10.2 | 5.4% above |
| 50 week MA | $11.3 | 4.7% below |
| 100 week MA | $17.0 | 37% below |
| 200 week MA | $21.4 | 50% below |
GPK has bounced recently, but its long-term trend is still down: it's above its 8- and 20-week averages, but 50% below its 200-week average.
GPK Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $16.7 | $16.9 | +1.4% |
| 2021 | $16.9 | $18.7 | +10% |
| 2022 | $18.7 | $22.2 | +19% |
| 2023 | $22.2 | $24.7 | +11% |
| 2024 | $24.7 | $27.5 | +11% |
| 2025 | $27.5 | $15.2 | -45% |
| 2026 YTD | $15.2 | $10.8 | -29% |
GPK has finished higher in five of the last six years. It's down 29% so far in 2026.