GPK
Graphic Packaging Holding Company
GPK trails on the overall score without a compensating advantage in the available component scores.
RIVN
Rivian Automotive, Inc.
RIVN has the edge over GPK overall, supported by stronger modeled upside and lower modeled downside.
GPK Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Stable | |
| Healthy | |
| Weak |
GPK's cash flow is currently healthy, and its revenue and profitability are stable, but its balance sheet is weak.
RIVN Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Weak | |
| Weak | |
| Unavailable |
RIVN's revenue is currently healthy, but its profitability and cash flow are weak. There isn't enough data to rate its balance sheet.
GPK PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 11x | $2.73 | -75% |
| Forward | 12x | $10.79 | — |
| Fair | 14x | $3.54 | -67% |
| Expensive | 27x | $6.70 | -38% |
| Current | 43x | $10.79 | — |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
GPK's PE is in its expensive range at 43x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 12x next year's earnings, in its cheap range.
RIVN PE Valuation
RIVN has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
GPK Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Growth | |
| Stable | |
| Stable | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect GPK's earnings to grow, with its revenue and profitability holding steady. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
RIVN Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Losses shrinking | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
RIVN has the edge over GPK on the outlook, with more favorable revenue and profitability expectations.
GPK Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $0.89 | +257% |
| Q3 2026 | $0.25 | -85% |
| Q2 2026 | $0.66 | -63% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.92 | -55% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.48 | -31% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.70 | -27% |
| Q2 2025 | $1.77 | -24% |
| Q1 2025 | $2.05 | -6.8% |
| Q4 2024 | $2.16 | -7.7% |
GPK has the edge over RIVN on earnings quality, reporting a profit while its opponent remains loss making.
RIVN Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$2.25 | +$0.83 |
| Q2 2026 | -$2.58 | +$0.62 |
| Q1 2026 | -$2.92 | +$0.77 |
| Q4 2025 | -$3.07 | +$1.62 |
| Q3 2025 | -$3.08 | +$2.52 |
| Q2 2025 | -$3.20 | +$2.76 |
| Q1 2025 | -$3.69 | +$2.08 |
| Q4 2024 | -$4.69 | +$1.05 |
RIVN is still losing money, but far less than before: $2.25 per share over the past year, against $7.40 at its worst in late 2022.
GPK Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $2.2B | +0.1% |
| Q2 2026 | $2.2B | -0.7% |
| Q1 2026 | $2.2B | +1.7% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.1B | +0.4% |
| Q3 2025 | $2.2B | -1.2% |
| Q2 2025 | $2.2B | -1.5% |
| Q1 2025 | $2.1B | -6.2% |
| Q4 2024 | $2.1B | -6.8% |
GPK's revenue grew through 2024 and has held roughly level since: $2.2B last quarter, about level with the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 4.6% | -6.1 points |
| Q2 2026 | 4.3% | -4.4 points |
| Q1 2026 | 0.9% | -9.5 points |
| Q4 2025 | 7.4% | -4 points |
| Q3 2025 | 11% | -1.9 points |
| Q2 2025 | 8.8% | -5.7 points |
| Q1 2025 | 10% | -1.9 points |
| Q4 2024 | 11% | -1.5 points |
GPK has the edge over RIVN on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
RIVN Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $2.2B | +38% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.7B | +27% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.4B | +11% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.3B | -26% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.6B | +78% |
| Q2 2025 | $1.3B | +13% |
| Q1 2025 | $1.2B | +3% |
| Q4 2024 | $1.7B | +32% |
RIVN has the edge over GPK on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -41% | +22 points |
| Q2 2026 | -50% | +35 points |
| Q1 2026 | -64% | -11 points |
| Q4 2025 | -65% | -27 points |
| Q3 2025 | -63% | +71 points |
| Q2 2025 | -86% | +33 points |
| Q1 2025 | -53% | +70 points |
| Q4 2024 | -38% | +82 points |
RIVN's operating margin was −41% last quarter, up 22 points from the same quarter a year ago, near the top of its range since 2021.
GPK Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $250M | +10% |
| Q2 2026 | $158M | -41% |
| Q1 2026 | -$113M | +$61M |
| Q4 2025 | $521M | +6.5% |
| Q3 2025 | $227M | +21% |
| Q2 2025 | $267M | +66% |
| Q1 2025 | -$174M | -5900% |
| Q4 2024 | $489M | +11% |
GPK has the edge over RIVN on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
RIVN Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$1.1B | -$703M |
| Q2 2026 | -$849M | -$451M |
| Q1 2026 | -$1.1B | -$549M |
| Q4 2025 | -$1.1B | -234% |
| Q3 2025 | -$421M | +$732M |
| Q2 2025 | -$398M | +$639M |
| Q1 2025 | -$526M | +$997M |
| Q4 2024 | $856M | +$2.3B |
RIVN has burned cash in almost every quarter: −$4.2B over the past year, against −$489M the year before.
GPK Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +0.1% | +300K shares |
| 1 year | -0.2% | -600K shares |
| 3 years | -3.9% | -12.2M shares |
| 5 years | -3.9% | -12M shares |
| Available history | +0.7% | +2.2M shares |
GPK has the edge over RIVN on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | — |
| Q4 2025 | — |
| Q3 2025 | $40M |
| Q4 2024 | — |
| Q3 2024 | — |
| Q2 2024 | $200M |
| Q1 2024 | — |
| Q4 2023 | $17M |
RIVN Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +9.1% | +121M shares |
| 1 year | +19% | +226M shares |
| 3 years | +52% | +494M shares |
RIVN has 1.4B diluted shares, up 19% from a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q2 2021 | — |
| Q1 2021 | — |
| Q4 2020 | $6M |
| Q3 2020 | — |
| Q2 2020 | — |
| Q1 2020 | — |
GPK Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 5.4x | High |
| Q2 2026 | 5.1x | High |
| Q1 2026 | 4.9x | High |
| Q4 2025 | 4.0x | Elevated |
| Q3 2025 | 4.1x | High |
| Q2 2025 | 3.9x | Elevated |
| Q1 2025 | 3.5x | Elevated |
| Q4 2024 | 3.0x | Elevated |
GPK's net debt is about 5.4 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), up from 4.1 years a year ago.
RIVN Net Leverage
RIVN's operating earnings (EBITDA) were negative over the past year, so its debt can't be measured against them.
GPK Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 52.2 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 53.3 | Neutral |
GPK's weekly RSI is 52 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 53 (neutral).
RIVN Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 41.5 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 25.6 | Neutral |
RIVN's weekly RSI is 41 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 26 (neutral).
GPK PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector
| Metric | GPK | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 43x | 18x | 140% above |
| PE % | 100 | 47 | 53 pts above |
GPK is trading at 43x earnings, a 140% premium to the Consumer Cyclical sector's median of 18x.
RIVN PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector
RIVN has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
GPK Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $9.35 | 15% above |
| 20 week MA | $10.2 | 5.4% above |
| 50 week MA | $11.3 | 4.7% below |
| 100 week MA | $17.0 | 37% below |
| 200 week MA | $21.4 | 50% below |
GPK has the edge over RIVN on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
RIVN Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $13.3 | 3.9% below |
| 20 week MA | $15.1 | 15% below |
| 50 week MA | $15.9 | 19% below |
| 100 week MA | $14.7 | 13% below |
| 200 week MA | $15.1 | 15% below |
RIVN is in a downtrend: it's below all five of its weekly moving averages, and 15% below its 200-week average.
GPK Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $16.7 | $16.9 | +1.4% |
| 2021 | $16.9 | $18.7 | +10% |
| 2022 | $18.7 | $22.2 | +19% |
| 2023 | $22.2 | $24.7 | +11% |
| 2024 | $24.7 | $27.5 | +11% |
| 2025 | $27.5 | $15.2 | -45% |
| 2026 YTD | $15.2 | $10.8 | -29% |
GPK has the edge over RIVN on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
RIVN Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | $130.0 | $96.8 | -25% |
| 2022 | $96.8 | $19.1 | -80% |
| 2023 | $19.1 | $23.5 | +23% |
| 2024 | $23.5 | $13.7 | -42% |
| 2025 | $13.7 | $20.9 | +53% |
| 2026 YTD | $20.9 | $12.8 | -39% |
RIVN has finished lower in three of the last five years. It's down 39% so far in 2026.