GFL
GFL Environmental Inc.
GFL has lower modeled downside risk, despite its lower overall score.
RDW
Redwire Corporation
RDW has the edge over GFL overall, supported by stronger fundamentals and stronger modeled upside.
GFL Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Under pressure | |
| Stable | |
| Weak |
GFL's revenue is currently healthy, and its cash flow is stable, but its profitability and balance sheet are under pressure.
RDW Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Under pressure | |
| Under pressure | |
| Unavailable |
RDW's revenue is currently healthy, but its profitability and cash flow are under pressure. There isn't enough data to rate its balance sheet.
GFL PE Valuation
GFL has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
RDW PE Valuation
RDW has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
GFL Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strong growth | |
| Weakening | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect strong earnings and revenue growth for GFL, but weaker profitability. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
RDW Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Losses shrinking | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
RDW has the edge over GFL on the outlook, with more favorable profitability expectations.
GFL Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$0.73 | -111% |
| Q2 2026 | -$0.49 | -108% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.31 | -94% |
| Q4 2025 | $6.83 | +$8.33 |
| Q3 2025 | $6.42 | +$7.70 |
| Q2 2025 | $6.38 | +$7.78 |
| Q1 2025 | $4.97 | +$4.97 |
| Q4 2024 | -$1.50 | -$1.46 |
GFL has the edge over RDW on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
RDW Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$1.17 | +$2.01 |
| Q2 2026 | -$1.37 | +$1.89 |
| Q1 2026 | -$2.59 | -$0.32 |
| Q4 2025 | -$2.28 | +$0.07 |
| Q3 2025 | -$3.18 | -$1.97 |
| Q2 2025 | -$3.26 | -$2.28 |
| Q1 2025 | -$2.27 | -$1.55 |
| Q4 2024 | -$2.35 | -$1.62 |
RDW is still losing money, but far less than before: $1.17 per share over the past year, against $3.26 at its worst in mid-2025.
GFL Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1.5B | +24% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.4B | +16% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.2B | +5.4% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.2B | -15% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.2B | +9% |
| Q2 2025 | $1.2B | +5.9% |
| Q1 2025 | $1.1B | -13% |
| Q4 2024 | $1.4B | +5.5% |
GFL's revenue has picked up after three years of holding roughly level: $1.5B last quarter, up 24% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 6.9% | -2.6 points |
| Q2 2026 | 5.6% | -3 points |
| Q1 2026 | 2.1% | +2 points |
| Q4 2025 | 1.8% | -3.5 points |
| Q3 2025 | 9.5% | +3.5 points |
| Q2 2025 | 8.6% | +3.3 points |
| Q1 2025 | 0.1% | -1.1 points |
| Q4 2024 | 5.3% | +3.6 points |
GFL has the edge over RDW on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
RDW Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $109M | +5.4% |
| Q2 2026 | $117.1M | +90% |
| Q1 2026 | $97M | +58% |
| Q4 2025 | $108.8M | +56% |
| Q3 2025 | $103.4M | +51% |
| Q2 2025 | $61.8M | -21% |
| Q1 2025 | $61.4M | -30% |
| Q4 2024 | $69.6M | +9.6% |
RDW has the edge over GFL on sales, with stronger typical year-over-year growth.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -24% | +16 points |
| Q2 2026 | -19% | +130 points |
| Q1 2026 | -72% | -49 points |
| Q4 2025 | -75% | -48 points |
| Q3 2025 | -40% | -22 points |
| Q2 2025 | -149% | -140 points |
| Q1 2025 | -23% | -19 points |
| Q4 2024 | -27% | -17 points |
RDW's operating margin was −24% last quarter, up 16 points from the same quarter a year ago.
GFL Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $88.6M | +24% |
| Q2 2026 | $85.7M | +613% |
| Q1 2026 | -$160.5M | -$61.3M |
| Q4 2025 | $138.5M | -21% |
| Q3 2025 | $71.4M | +54% |
| Q2 2025 | $12M | -62% |
| Q1 2025 | -$99.2M | -$84M |
| Q4 2024 | $174.4M | +46% |
GFL has the edge over RDW on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
RDW Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$65.3M | -$38.5M |
| Q2 2026 | -$33.5M | +$57.2M |
| Q1 2026 | -$11.4M | +$35.5M |
| Q4 2025 | -$26.5M | -659% |
| Q3 2025 | -$26.9M | -$7.6M |
| Q2 2025 | -$90.6M | -$80.2M |
| Q1 2025 | -$46.9M | -3996% |
| Q4 2024 | $4.7M | -65% |
RDW has burned cash in most quarters: −$137M over the past year, against −$160M the year before.
GFL Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +6.7% | +24.3M shares |
| 1 year | +4.2% | +15.4M shares |
| 3 years | +4.4% | +16.1M shares |
| 5 years | +6.5% | +23.6M shares |
| Available history | +7% | +25.3M shares |
GFL has the edge over RDW on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | — |
| Q2 2026 | $9.8M |
| Q1 2026 | $40.2M |
| Q4 2025 | $146.9M |
| Q3 2025 | $243.5M |
| Q2 2025 | $195.2M |
| Q1 2025 | $1.5B |
| Q4 2024 | — |
GFL spent $197M buying back its own shares over the past year, down 90% from the year before.
RDW Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +13% | +29.6M shares |
| 1 year | +179% | +160M shares |
| 3 years | +289% | +186M shares |
| 5 years | +319% | +190M shares |
RDW has 250M diluted shares, up 179% from a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q4 2020 | — |
| Q2 2020 | — |
| Q1 2020 | — |
GFL Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 6.6x | High |
| Q2 2026 | 5.6x | High |
| Q1 2026 | 4.2x | High |
| Q4 2025 | 3.8x | Elevated |
| Q3 2025 | 4.2x | High |
| Q2 2025 | 3.9x | Elevated |
| Q1 2025 | 6.6x | High |
| Q4 2024 | 9.7x | High |
GFL's net debt is about 6.6 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), up from 4.2 years a year ago.
RDW Net Leverage
RDW's operating earnings (EBITDA) were negative over the past year, so its debt can't be measured against them.
GFL Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 49.3 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 70.0 | Neutral |
GFL's weekly RSI is 49 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 70 (neutral).
RDW Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 42.3 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 16.1 | Oversold |
RDW's weekly RSI is 42 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 16 (oversold).
GFL PE vs Industrials Sector
| Metric | GFL | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | N/A | 24x | — |
GFL has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
RDW PE vs Industrials Sector
RDW has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
GFL Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $43.7 | 4.1% below |
| 20 week MA | $42.2 | 0.6% below |
| 50 week MA | $41.3 | 1.5% above |
| 100 week MA | $44.2 | 5.1% below |
| 200 week MA | $39.9 | 5.2% above |
GFL has the edge over RDW on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
RDW Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $9.06 | 11% below |
| 20 week MA | $10.1 | 20% below |
| 50 week MA | $10.6 | 24% below |
| 100 week MA | $11.6 | 31% below |
| 200 week MA | $8.07 | 0.5% below |
RDW is in a downtrend: it's below all five of its weekly moving averages, and 0.5% below its 200-week average.
GFL Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $17.0 | $28.2 | +66% |
| 2021 | $28.2 | $38.0 | +35% |
| 2022 | $38.0 | $28.2 | -26% |
| 2023 | $28.2 | $34.5 | +22% |
| 2024 | $34.5 | $44.6 | +29% |
| 2025 | $44.6 | $43.2 | -3% |
| 2026 YTD | $43.2 | $41.9 | -3% |
GFL has finished higher in four of the last six years. It's down 3% so far in 2026.
RDW Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | $10.2 | $7.34 | -28% |
| 2022 | $7.34 | $1.92 | -74% |
| 2023 | $1.92 | $2.85 | +48% |
| 2024 | $2.85 | $17.1 | +501% |
| 2025 | $17.1 | $7.15 | -58% |
| 2026 YTD | $7.15 | $8.03 | +12% |
RDW has the edge over GFL on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.