GFL

GFL Environmental Inc.

54
Fundamentals52/ 100
Valuation50/ 100
Upside potential57/ 100
Risk potential16/ 100

GFL lost money over the past year, so it has no meaningful PE right now. Analysts expect earnings to recover, though they disagree widely on how much.

GFL Fundamentals

MetricStatus
Healthy
Under pressure
Stable
Weak

GFL's revenue is currently healthy, and its cash flow is stable, but its profitability and balance sheet are under pressure.

GFL PE Valuation

GFL has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.

GFL Forward outlook

MetricOutlook
--
Strong growth
Strong growth
Weakening
Limited
Low

Analysts expect strong earnings and revenue growth for GFL, but weaker profitability. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.

GFL Risk to reward

ScenarioChangePrice
Upside+22%$51.06
Downside-16%$35.19

Calculated from the latest close: $41.94 on Nov 12.

GFL's one-year upside scenario is somewhat larger than its downside: +22% against −16%.

GFL Earnings Per Share

Q4 2023: $-0.04Q1 2024: $0.00Q2 2024: $-1.40Q3 2024: $-1.28Q4 2024: $-1.50Q1 2025: $4.97Q2 2025: $6.38Q3 2025: $6.42Q4 2025: $6.83Q1 2026: $0.31Q2 2026: $-0.49Q3 2026: $-0.73
Q4 2023: $-0.04Q1 2024: $0.00Q2 2024: $-1.40Q3 2024: $-1.28Q4 2024: $-1.50Q1 2025: $4.97Q2 2025: $6.38Q3 2025: $6.42Q4 2025: $6.83Q1 2026: $0.31Q2 2026: $-0.49Q3 2026: $-0.73
QuarterTTM EPSYoY
Q3 2026-$0.73-111%
Q2 2026-$0.49-108%
Q1 2026$0.31-94%
Q4 2025$6.83+$8.33
Q3 2025$6.42+$7.70
Q2 2025$6.38+$7.78
Q1 2025$4.97+$4.97
Q4 2024-$1.50-$1.46

GFL has swung to a loss: it lost $0.73 per share over the past year, after a profit the year before.

GFL Quarterly Revenue

Q4 2023: $1.3BQ1 2024: $1.3BQ2 2024: $1.1BQ3 2024: $1.1BQ4 2024: $1.4BQ1 2025: $1.1BQ2 2025: $1.2BQ3 2025: $1.2BQ4 2025: $1.2BQ1 2026: $1.2BQ2 2026: $1.4BQ3 2026: $1.5B
Q4 2023: $1.3BQ1 2024: $1.3BQ2 2024: $1.1BQ3 2024: $1.1BQ4 2024: $1.4BQ1 2025: $1.1BQ2 2025: $1.2BQ3 2025: $1.2BQ4 2025: $1.2BQ1 2026: $1.2BQ2 2026: $1.4BQ3 2026: $1.5B
QuarterRevenueYoY
Q3 2026$1.5B+24%
Q2 2026$1.4B+16%
Q1 2026$1.2B+5.4%
Q4 2025$1.2B-15%
Q3 2025$1.2B+9%
Q2 2025$1.2B+5.9%
Q1 2025$1.1B-13%
Q4 2024$1.4B+5.5%

GFL's revenue has picked up after three years of holding roughly level: $1.5B last quarter, up 24% from the same quarter a year ago.

GFL Free Cash Flow

Q4 2023: $119MQ1 2024: −$15MQ2 2024: $32MQ3 2024: $46MQ4 2024: $174MQ1 2025: −$99MQ2 2025: $12MQ3 2025: $71MQ4 2025: $138MQ1 2026: −$160MQ2 2026: $86MQ3 2026: $89M
Q4 2023: $119MQ1 2024: −$15MQ2 2024: $32MQ3 2024: $46MQ4 2024: $174MQ1 2025: −$99MQ2 2025: $12MQ3 2025: $71MQ4 2025: $138MQ1 2026: −$160MQ2 2026: $86MQ3 2026: $89M
QuarterFree cash flowYoY
Q3 2026$88.6M+24%
Q2 2026$85.7M+613%
Q1 2026-$160.5M-$61.3M
Q4 2025$138.5M-21%
Q3 2025$71.4M+54%
Q2 2025$12M-62%
Q1 2025-$99.2M-$84M
Q4 2024$174.4M+46%

GFL still generates free cash flow, though less than at its 2024 peak: $152M over the past year.

GFL Total Shares

Q4 2023: 371MQ1 2024: 373MQ2 2024: 377MQ3 2024: 385MQ4 2024: 394MQ1 2025: 391MQ2 2025: 383MQ3 2025: 370MQ4 2025: 367MQ1 2026: 358MQ2 2026: 361MQ3 2026: 386M
Q4 2023: 371MQ1 2024: 373MQ2 2024: 377MQ3 2024: 385MQ4 2024: 394MQ1 2025: 391MQ2 2025: 383MQ3 2025: 370MQ4 2025: 367MQ1 2026: 358MQ2 2026: 361MQ3 2026: 386M
PeriodChange %Net change
Quarterly+6.7%+24.3M shares
1 year+4.2%+15.4M shares
3 years+4.4%+16.1M shares
5 years+6.5%+23.6M shares
Available history+7%+25.3M shares

GFL has 386M diluted shares, up 4.2% from a year ago, despite $197M in buybacks over the past year.

GFL Net Leverage

Q4 2023: 5.3xQ1 2024: 5.5xQ2 2024: 8.5xQ3 2024: 7.7xQ4 2024: 9.7xQ1 2025: 6.6xQ2 2025: 3.9xQ3 2025: 4.2xQ4 2025: 3.8xQ1 2026: 4.2xQ2 2026: 5.6xQ3 2026: 6.6x
Q4 2023: 5.3xQ1 2024: 5.5xQ2 2024: 8.5xQ3 2024: 7.7xQ4 2024: 9.7xQ1 2025: 6.6xQ2 2025: 3.9xQ3 2025: 4.2xQ4 2025: 3.8xQ1 2026: 4.2xQ2 2026: 5.6xQ3 2026: 6.6x
QuarterNet LeverageStatus
Q3 20266.6xHigh
Q2 20265.6xHigh
Q1 20264.2xHigh
Q4 20253.8xElevated
Q3 20254.2xHigh
Q2 20253.9xElevated
Q1 20256.6xHigh
Q4 20249.7xHigh

GFL's net debt is about 6.6 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), up from 4.2 years a year ago.

GFL Weekly Momentum

MetricValueStatus
RSI49.3Neutral
Stochastic70.0Neutral

GFL's weekly RSI is 49 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 70 (neutral).

GFL PE vs Industrials Sector

MetricGFLSector medianRelative
PEN/A24x—

GFL has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.

GFL Weekly Moving Averages

Moving averageMA priceRelative
8 week MA$43.74.1% below
20 week MA$42.20.6% below
50 week MA$41.31.5% above
100 week MA$44.25.1% below
200 week MA$39.95.2% above

GFL's trend is mixed: it's above two of its five weekly moving averages, and 5.2% above its 200-week average.

GFL Yearly ROI

YearStart priceEnd priceROI
2020$17.0$28.2+66%
2021$28.2$38.0+35%
2022$38.0$28.2-26%
2023$28.2$34.5+22%
2024$34.5$44.6+29%
2025$44.6$43.2-3%
2026 YTD$43.2$41.9-3%

GFL has finished higher in four of the last six years. It's down 3% so far in 2026.

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