GEO
The GEO Group, Inc.
GEO's outlook is improving despite an expensive valuation.
VRT
Vertiv Holdings Co
VRT has the edge over GEO overall, supported by stronger valuation and stronger modeled upside.
GEO Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Healthy | |
| Healthy | |
| Stable |
GEO's revenue, profitability and cash flow are currently healthy, and its balance sheet is stable.
VRT Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Strong | |
| Strong | |
| Strong | |
| Strong |
VRT's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently strong.
GEO PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 7.4x | $8.70 | -73% |
| Fair | 12x | $13.62 | -58% |
| Forward | 16x | $32.22 | — |
| Expensive | 26x | $31.14 | -3.4% |
| Current | 27x | $32.22 | — |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
GEO's PE is in its expensive range at 27x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 16x next year's earnings, in its fair range.
VRT PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forward | 23x | $210 | — |
| Current | 39x | $210 | — |
| Cheap | 58x | $308 | +47% |
| Fair | 72x | $383 | +83% |
| Expensive | 88x | $472 | +125% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
VRT has the edge over GEO in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
GEO Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| High |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for GEO, with profitability improving.
VRT Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Moderate | |
| Moderate |
Analysts expect strong earnings and revenue growth for VRT, with profitability improving.
GEO Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $2.05 | +74% |
| Q3 2026 | $1.18 | -32% |
| Q2 2026 | $2.05 | +201% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.90 | +764% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.75 | +695% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.73 | +592% |
| Q2 2025 | $0.68 | +209% |
| Q1 2025 | $0.22 | -67% |
| Q4 2024 | $0.22 | -69% |
GEO earned $1.18 per share over the past year, down 32% from the year before.
VRT Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $9.14 | +71% |
| Q3 2026 | $5.35 | +102% |
| Q2 2026 | $4.42 | +111% |
| Q1 2026 | $3.98 | +131% |
| Q4 2025 | $3.41 | +166% |
| Q3 2025 | $2.65 | +75% |
| Q2 2025 | $2.09 | +62% |
| Q1 2025 | $1.72 | +64% |
| Q4 2024 | $1.28 | +7.6% |
VRT's earnings per share have climbed steadily: $5.35 over the past year, up 102% from the year before, and higher year over year every quarter since late 2021.
GEO Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $761.1M | +12% |
| Q2 2026 | $732.1M | +15% |
| Q1 2026 | $705.2M | +17% |
| Q4 2025 | $707.7M | +16% |
| Q3 2025 | $682.3M | +13% |
| Q2 2025 | $636.2M | +4.8% |
| Q1 2025 | $604.6M | -0.2% |
| Q4 2024 | $607.7M | -0.1% |
GEO's revenue has grown year over year for six quarters in a row: $761M last quarter, up 12% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 13% | +7.5 points |
| Q2 2026 | 14% | +2.6 points |
| Q1 2026 | 13% | +2.6 points |
| Q4 2025 | 12% | +0.7 points |
| Q3 2025 | 6% | -7.7 points |
| Q2 2025 | 11% | -1.9 points |
| Q1 2025 | 10% | -3.1 points |
| Q4 2024 | 11% | -2.6 points |
GEO's operating margin was 13% last quarter, up 7.5 points from the same quarter a year ago.
VRT Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $4.3B | +61% |
| Q2 2026 | $3.3B | +24% |
| Q1 2026 | $2.6B | +30% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.9B | +23% |
| Q3 2025 | $2.7B | +29% |
| Q2 2025 | $2.6B | +35% |
| Q1 2025 | $2B | +24% |
| Q4 2024 | $2.3B | +26% |
VRT has the edge over GEO on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 23% | +3.5 points |
| Q2 2026 | 19% | +2.7 points |
| Q1 2026 | 17% | +2.3 points |
| Q4 2025 | 20% | +0.7 points |
| Q3 2025 | 19% | +1.4 points |
| Q2 2025 | 17% | -0.4 points |
| Q1 2025 | 14% | +1.9 points |
| Q4 2024 | 19% | +4.2 points |
VRT has the edge over GEO on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
GEO Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $176.6M | +$190.7M |
| Q2 2026 | $59.4M | +2420% |
| Q1 2026 | $134.8M | +233% |
| Q4 2025 | -$153.6M | -$151.2M |
| Q3 2025 | -$14.1M | -116% |
| Q2 2025 | $2.4M | -45% |
| Q1 2025 | $40.5M | -43% |
| Q4 2024 | -$2.3M | -107% |
GEO still generates free cash flow, though less than at its 2026 peak: $217M over the past year.
VRT Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $654.9M | +41% |
| Q2 2026 | $926.5M | +233% |
| Q1 2026 | $654.2M | +145% |
| Q4 2025 | $885.6M | +143% |
| Q3 2025 | $463.5M | +36% |
| Q2 2025 | $277.9M | -19% |
| Q1 2025 | $266.8M | +162% |
| Q4 2024 | $364.5M | +18% |
VRT has the edge over GEO on cash flow, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
GEO Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | 0% | -22K shares |
| 1 year | -5.7% | -8M shares |
| 3 years | +6.9% | +8.6M shares |
| 5 years | +9.2% | +11.1M shares |
| Available history | +11% | +12.7M shares |
GEO has the edge over VRT on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | — |
| Q2 2026 | $36.6M |
| Q1 2026 | $50.1M |
| Q4 2025 | $49.4M |
| Q1 2021 | — |
| Q4 2020 | $553,000 |
| Q3 2020 | $553,000 |
| Q2 2020 | — |
GEO spent $136M buying back its own shares over the past year.
VRT Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | 0% | -64.9K shares |
| 1 year | +0.4% | +1.8M shares |
| 3 years | +1.1% | +4.4M shares |
| 5 years | +10% | +36M shares |
| Available history | +63% | +152M shares |
VRT has 393M diluted shares, about the same as a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q4 2025 | — |
| Q3 2025 | — |
| Q2 2025 | — |
| Q1 2025 | — |
| Q4 2024 | — |
| Q3 2024 | — |
| Q2 2024 | — |
| Q1 2024 | $599.9M |
GEO Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 2.6x | Moderate |
| Q2 2026 | 3.3x | Elevated |
| Q1 2026 | 3.6x | Elevated |
| Q4 2025 | 4.1x | High |
| Q3 2025 | 3.7x | Elevated |
| Q2 2025 | 4.0x | Elevated |
| Q1 2025 | 3.9x | Elevated |
| Q4 2024 | 3.8x | Elevated |
GEO's net debt is about 2.6 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), down from 3.7 years a year ago.
VRT Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -0.2x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | 0.1x | Very low |
| Q1 2026 | 0.3x | Very low |
| Q4 2025 | 0.6x | Very low |
| Q3 2025 | 0.8x | Very low |
| Q2 2025 | 0.7x | Very low |
| Q1 2025 | 0.8x | Very low |
| Q4 2024 | 1.0x | Healthy |
VRT has the edge over GEO on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
GEO Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 63.2 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 52.6 | Neutral |
GEO's weekly RSI is 63 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 53 (neutral).
VRT Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 43.0 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 26.4 | Neutral |
VRT's weekly RSI is 43 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 26 (neutral).
GEO PE vs Industrials Sector
| Metric | GEO | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 27x | 24x | 13% above |
| PE % | 83 | 58 | 25 pts above |
GEO has the edge over VRT on valuation relative to its sector.
VRT PE vs Industrials Sector
| Metric | VRT | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 39x | 24x | 63% above |
| PE % | 3 | 58 | 55 pts below |
VRT is trading at 39x earnings, a 63% premium to the Industrials sector's median of 24x.
GEO Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $29.8 | 8.2% above |
| 20 week MA | $30.6 | 5.3% above |
| 50 week MA | $23.6 | 36% above |
| 100 week MA | $24.1 | 34% above |
| 200 week MA | $18.0 | 79% above |
GEO has the edge over VRT on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
VRT Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $221.8 | 5.5% below |
| 20 week MA | $254.4 | 18% below |
| 50 week MA | $253.9 | 17% below |
| 100 week MA | $189.1 | 11% above |
| 200 week MA | $123.5 | 70% above |
VRT has pulled back, but its long-term trend is still up: it's below its 8-, 20- and 50-week averages, but 70% above its 200-week average.
GEO Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $16.8 | $8.98 | -47% |
| 2021 | $8.98 | $7.67 | -15% |
| 2022 | $7.67 | $11.2 | +46% |
| 2023 | $11.2 | $10.8 | -3.1% |
| 2024 | $10.8 | $27.7 | +155% |
| 2025 | $27.7 | $16.3 | -41% |
| 2026 YTD | $16.3 | $32.2 | +98% |
GEO has the edge over VRT on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
VRT Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $10.9 | $18.9 | +73% |
| 2021 | $18.9 | $24.9 | +31% |
| 2022 | $24.9 | $12.8 | -48% |
| 2023 | $12.8 | $48.0 | +275% |
| 2024 | $48.0 | $115.1 | +140% |
| 2025 | $115.1 | $167.6 | +46% |
| 2026 YTD | $167.6 | $209.6 | +25% |
VRT's yearly returns have swung widely, from +275% in 2023 to −48% in 2022. It's up 25% so far in 2026.