GEO
The GEO Group, Inc.
GEO's fundamentals are strong, but it looks expensive: trading at 27x earnings, more than twice its usual 12x. Analysts expect strong earnings growth.
GEO Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Healthy | |
| Healthy | |
| Stable |
GEO's revenue, profitability and cash flow are currently healthy, and its balance sheet is stable.
GEO PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 7.4x | $8.70 | -73% |
| Fair | 12x | $13.62 | -58% |
| Forward | 16x | $32.22 | — |
| Expensive | 26x | $31.14 | -3.4% |
| Current | 27x | $32.22 | — |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
GEO's PE is in its expensive range at 27x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 16x next year's earnings, in its fair range.
GEO Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for GEO, with profitability improving.
GEO Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $2.05 | +74% |
| Q3 2026 | $1.18 | -32% |
| Q2 2026 | $2.05 | +201% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.90 | +764% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.75 | +695% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.73 | +592% |
| Q2 2025 | $0.68 | +209% |
| Q1 2025 | $0.22 | -67% |
| Q4 2024 | $0.22 | -69% |
GEO earned $1.18 per share over the past year, down 32% from the year before.
GEO Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $761.1M | +12% |
| Q2 2026 | $732.1M | +15% |
| Q1 2026 | $705.2M | +17% |
| Q4 2025 | $707.7M | +16% |
| Q3 2025 | $682.3M | +13% |
| Q2 2025 | $636.2M | +4.8% |
| Q1 2025 | $604.6M | -0.2% |
| Q4 2024 | $607.7M | -0.1% |
GEO's revenue has grown year over year for six quarters in a row: $761M last quarter, up 12% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 13% | +7.5 points |
| Q2 2026 | 14% | +2.6 points |
| Q1 2026 | 13% | +2.6 points |
| Q4 2025 | 12% | +0.7 points |
| Q3 2025 | 6% | -7.7 points |
| Q2 2025 | 11% | -1.9 points |
| Q1 2025 | 10% | -3.1 points |
| Q4 2024 | 11% | -2.6 points |
GEO's operating margin was 13% last quarter, up 7.5 points from the same quarter a year ago.
GEO Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $176.6M | +$190.7M |
| Q2 2026 | $59.4M | +2420% |
| Q1 2026 | $134.8M | +233% |
| Q4 2025 | -$153.6M | -$151.2M |
| Q3 2025 | -$14.1M | -116% |
| Q2 2025 | $2.4M | -45% |
| Q1 2025 | $40.5M | -43% |
| Q4 2024 | -$2.3M | -107% |
GEO still generates free cash flow, though less than at its 2026 peak: $217M over the past year.
GEO Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | 0% | -22K shares |
| 1 year | -5.7% | -8M shares |
| 3 years | +6.9% | +8.6M shares |
| 5 years | +9.2% | +11.1M shares |
| Available history | +11% | +12.7M shares |
GEO has 132M diluted shares, down 5.7% from a year ago, with $136M in buybacks over the past year.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | — |
| Q2 2026 | $36.6M |
| Q1 2026 | $50.1M |
| Q4 2025 | $49.4M |
| Q1 2021 | — |
| Q4 2020 | $553,000 |
| Q3 2020 | $553,000 |
| Q2 2020 | — |
GEO spent $136M buying back its own shares over the past year.
GEO Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 2.6x | Moderate |
| Q2 2026 | 3.3x | Elevated |
| Q1 2026 | 3.6x | Elevated |
| Q4 2025 | 4.1x | High |
| Q3 2025 | 3.7x | Elevated |
| Q2 2025 | 4.0x | Elevated |
| Q1 2025 | 3.9x | Elevated |
| Q4 2024 | 3.8x | Elevated |
GEO's net debt is about 2.6 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), down from 3.7 years a year ago.
GEO Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 63.2 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 52.6 | Neutral |
GEO's weekly RSI is 63 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 53 (neutral).
GEO PE vs Industrials Sector
| Metric | GEO | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 27x | 24x | 14% above |
| PE % | 83 | 58 | 25 pts above |
GEO is trading at 27x earnings, a 14% premium to the Industrials sector's median of 24x.
GEO Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $29.8 | 8.2% above |
| 20 week MA | $30.6 | 5.3% above |
| 50 week MA | $23.6 | 36% above |
| 100 week MA | $24.1 | 34% above |
| 200 week MA | $18.0 | 79% above |
GEO is in an uptrend: it's above all five of its weekly moving averages, and 79% above its 200-week average.
GEO Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $16.8 | $8.98 | -47% |
| 2021 | $8.98 | $7.67 | -15% |
| 2022 | $7.67 | $11.2 | +46% |
| 2023 | $11.2 | $10.8 | -3.1% |
| 2024 | $10.8 | $27.7 | +155% |
| 2025 | $27.7 | $16.3 | -41% |
| 2026 YTD | $16.3 | $32.2 | +98% |
GEO's yearly returns have swung widely, from +155% in 2024 to −47% in 2020. It's up 98% so far in 2026.