GEO
The GEO Group, Inc.
GEO has lower modeled downside risk, despite its lower overall score.
RDW
Redwire Corporation
RDW has the edge over GEO overall, supported by stronger valuation and stronger modeled upside.
GEO Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Healthy | |
| Healthy | |
| Stable |
GEO's revenue, profitability and cash flow are currently healthy, and its balance sheet is stable.
RDW Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Under pressure | |
| Under pressure | |
| Unavailable |
RDW's revenue is currently healthy, but its profitability and cash flow are under pressure. There isn't enough data to rate its balance sheet.
GEO PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 7.4x | $8.70 | -73% |
| Fair | 12x | $13.62 | -58% |
| Forward | 16x | $32.22 | — |
| Expensive | 26x | $31.14 | -3.4% |
| Current | 27x | $32.22 | — |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
GEO's PE is in its expensive range at 27x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 16x next year's earnings, in its fair range.
RDW PE Valuation
RDW has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
GEO Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| High |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for GEO, with profitability improving.
RDW Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Losses shrinking | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
Analysts expect RDW's losses to shrink, with revenue growing.
GEO Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $2.05 | +74% |
| Q3 2026 | $1.18 | -32% |
| Q2 2026 | $2.05 | +201% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.90 | +764% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.75 | +695% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.73 | +592% |
| Q2 2025 | $0.68 | +209% |
| Q1 2025 | $0.22 | -67% |
| Q4 2024 | $0.22 | -69% |
GEO has the edge over RDW on earnings quality, reporting a profit while its opponent remains loss making.
RDW Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$1.17 | +$2.01 |
| Q2 2026 | -$1.37 | +$1.89 |
| Q1 2026 | -$2.59 | -$0.32 |
| Q4 2025 | -$2.28 | +$0.07 |
| Q3 2025 | -$3.18 | -$1.97 |
| Q2 2025 | -$3.26 | -$2.28 |
| Q1 2025 | -$2.27 | -$1.55 |
| Q4 2024 | -$2.35 | -$1.62 |
RDW is still losing money, but far less than before: $1.17 per share over the past year, against $3.26 at its worst in mid-2025.
GEO Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $761.1M | +12% |
| Q2 2026 | $732.1M | +15% |
| Q1 2026 | $705.2M | +17% |
| Q4 2025 | $707.7M | +16% |
| Q3 2025 | $682.3M | +13% |
| Q2 2025 | $636.2M | +4.8% |
| Q1 2025 | $604.6M | -0.2% |
| Q4 2024 | $607.7M | -0.1% |
GEO's revenue has grown year over year for six quarters in a row: $761M last quarter, up 12% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 13% | +7.5 points |
| Q2 2026 | 14% | +2.6 points |
| Q1 2026 | 13% | +2.6 points |
| Q4 2025 | 12% | +0.7 points |
| Q3 2025 | 6% | -7.7 points |
| Q2 2025 | 11% | -1.9 points |
| Q1 2025 | 10% | -3.1 points |
| Q4 2024 | 11% | -2.6 points |
GEO has the edge over RDW on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
RDW Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $109M | +5.4% |
| Q2 2026 | $117.1M | +90% |
| Q1 2026 | $97M | +58% |
| Q4 2025 | $108.8M | +56% |
| Q3 2025 | $103.4M | +51% |
| Q2 2025 | $61.8M | -21% |
| Q1 2025 | $61.4M | -30% |
| Q4 2024 | $69.6M | +9.6% |
RDW has the edge over GEO on sales, with stronger typical year-over-year growth.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -24% | +16 points |
| Q2 2026 | -19% | +130 points |
| Q1 2026 | -72% | -49 points |
| Q4 2025 | -75% | -48 points |
| Q3 2025 | -40% | -22 points |
| Q2 2025 | -149% | -140 points |
| Q1 2025 | -23% | -19 points |
| Q4 2024 | -27% | -17 points |
RDW's operating margin was −24% last quarter, up 16 points from the same quarter a year ago.
GEO Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $176.6M | +$190.7M |
| Q2 2026 | $59.4M | +2420% |
| Q1 2026 | $134.8M | +233% |
| Q4 2025 | -$153.6M | -$151.2M |
| Q3 2025 | -$14.1M | -116% |
| Q2 2025 | $2.4M | -45% |
| Q1 2025 | $40.5M | -43% |
| Q4 2024 | -$2.3M | -107% |
GEO has the edge over RDW on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
RDW Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$65.3M | -$38.5M |
| Q2 2026 | -$33.5M | +$57.2M |
| Q1 2026 | -$11.4M | +$35.5M |
| Q4 2025 | -$26.5M | -659% |
| Q3 2025 | -$26.9M | -$7.6M |
| Q2 2025 | -$90.6M | -$80.2M |
| Q1 2025 | -$46.9M | -3996% |
| Q4 2024 | $4.7M | -65% |
RDW has burned cash in most quarters: −$137M over the past year, against −$160M the year before.
GEO Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | 0% | -22K shares |
| 1 year | -5.7% | -8M shares |
| 3 years | +6.9% | +8.6M shares |
| 5 years | +9.2% | +11.1M shares |
| Available history | +11% | +12.7M shares |
GEO has the edge over RDW on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | — |
| Q2 2026 | $36.6M |
| Q1 2026 | $50.1M |
| Q4 2025 | $49.4M |
| Q1 2021 | — |
| Q4 2020 | $553,000 |
| Q3 2020 | $553,000 |
| Q2 2020 | — |
GEO spent $136M buying back its own shares over the past year.
RDW Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +13% | +29.6M shares |
| 1 year | +179% | +160M shares |
| 3 years | +289% | +186M shares |
| 5 years | +319% | +190M shares |
RDW has 250M diluted shares, up 179% from a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q4 2020 | — |
| Q2 2020 | — |
| Q1 2020 | — |
GEO Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 2.6x | Moderate |
| Q2 2026 | 3.3x | Elevated |
| Q1 2026 | 3.6x | Elevated |
| Q4 2025 | 4.1x | High |
| Q3 2025 | 3.7x | Elevated |
| Q2 2025 | 4.0x | Elevated |
| Q1 2025 | 3.9x | Elevated |
| Q4 2024 | 3.8x | Elevated |
GEO's net debt is about 2.6 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), down from 3.7 years a year ago.
RDW Net Leverage
RDW's operating earnings (EBITDA) were negative over the past year, so its debt can't be measured against them.
GEO Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 63.2 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 52.6 | Neutral |
GEO's weekly RSI is 63 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 53 (neutral).
RDW Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 42.3 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 16.1 | Oversold |
RDW's weekly RSI is 42 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 16 (oversold).
GEO PE vs Industrials Sector
| Metric | GEO | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 27x | 24x | 13% above |
| PE % | 83 | 58 | 25 pts above |
GEO is trading at 27x earnings, a 13% premium to the Industrials sector's median of 24x.
RDW PE vs Industrials Sector
RDW has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
GEO Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $29.8 | 8.2% above |
| 20 week MA | $30.6 | 5.3% above |
| 50 week MA | $23.6 | 36% above |
| 100 week MA | $24.1 | 34% above |
| 200 week MA | $18.0 | 79% above |
GEO has the edge over RDW on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
RDW Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $9.06 | 11% below |
| 20 week MA | $10.1 | 20% below |
| 50 week MA | $10.6 | 24% below |
| 100 week MA | $11.6 | 31% below |
| 200 week MA | $8.07 | 0.5% below |
RDW is in a downtrend: it's below all five of its weekly moving averages, and 0.5% below its 200-week average.
GEO Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $16.8 | $8.98 | -47% |
| 2021 | $8.98 | $7.67 | -15% |
| 2022 | $7.67 | $11.2 | +46% |
| 2023 | $11.2 | $10.8 | -3.1% |
| 2024 | $10.8 | $27.7 | +155% |
| 2025 | $27.7 | $16.3 | -41% |
| 2026 YTD | $16.3 | $32.2 | +98% |
GEO has the edge over RDW on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
RDW Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | $10.2 | $7.34 | -28% |
| 2022 | $7.34 | $1.92 | -74% |
| 2023 | $1.92 | $2.85 | +48% |
| 2024 | $2.85 | $17.1 | +501% |
| 2025 | $17.1 | $7.15 | -58% |
| 2026 YTD | $7.15 | $8.03 | +12% |
RDW's yearly returns have swung widely, from +501% in 2024 to −74% in 2022. It's up 12% so far in 2026.