GCT
GigaCloud Technology Inc.
GCT offers stronger fundamentals, but that advantage does not outweigh its weaker overall profile.
MSFT
Microsoft Corporation
MSFT has the edge over GCT overall, supported by stronger valuation and lower modeled downside.
GCT Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Healthy | |
| Stable | |
| Strong |
GCT's revenue, profitability and balance sheet are currently healthy, and its cash flow is stable.
MSFT Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| Healthy | |
| Strong |
MSFT's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently healthy.
GCT PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 6.7x | $31.18 | -52% |
| Fair | 9.6x | $44.23 | -32% |
| Forward | 12x | $64.79 | — |
| Expensive | 13x | $58.32 | -10% |
| Current | 14x | $64.79 | — |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
GCT's PE is in its expensive range at 14x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 12x next year's earnings.
MSFT PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forward | 25x | $523 | — |
| Cheap | 27x | $525 | +0.4% |
| Current | 27x | $523 | — |
| Fair | 34x | $652 | +25% |
| Expensive | 37x | $711 | +36% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
MSFT has the edge over GCT in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
GCT Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
GCT has the edge over MSFT on the outlook, with more favorable profitability expectations.
MSFT Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strong growth | |
| Stable | |
| Moderate | |
| High |
Analysts expect strong earnings and revenue growth for MSFT, with profitability holding steady.
GCT Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $5.61 | +21% |
| Q3 2026 | $4.62 | +38% |
| Q2 2026 | $4.20 | +26% |
| Q1 2026 | $3.95 | +29% |
| Q4 2025 | $3.59 | +18% |
| Q3 2025 | $3.34 | +5.7% |
| Q2 2025 | $3.33 | +20% |
| Q1 2025 | $3.07 | +19% |
| Q4 2024 | $3.05 | +33% |
GCT has the edge over MSFT on earnings, with stronger typical year-over-year growth.
MSFT Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $20.79 | +8.6% |
| Q3 2026 | $19.15 | +36% |
| Q2 2026 | $17.95 | +32% |
| Q1 2026 | $16.80 | +30% |
| Q4 2025 | $15.99 | +29% |
| Q3 2025 | $14.06 | +16% |
| Q2 2025 | $13.64 | +16% |
| Q1 2025 | $12.93 | +12% |
| Q4 2024 | $12.41 | +12% |
MSFT's earnings per share have climbed steadily: $19.15 over the past year, up 36% from the year before, and higher year over year for 14 quarters in a row.
GCT Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $423.6M | +27% |
| Q2 2026 | $411.6M | +28% |
| Q1 2026 | $359.5M | +32% |
| Q4 2025 | $362.7M | +23% |
| Q3 2025 | $332.6M | +9.7% |
| Q2 2025 | $322.6M | +3.8% |
| Q1 2025 | $271.9M | +8.3% |
| Q4 2024 | $295.8M | +21% |
GCT has the edge over MSFT on sales, with stronger typical year-over-year growth.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 14% | +1.8 points |
| Q2 2026 | 12% | +0.4 points |
| Q1 2026 | 12% | +1.4 points |
| Q4 2025 | 11% | +1.8 points |
| Q3 2025 | 12% | -1.3 points |
| Q2 2025 | 11% | +2.3 points |
| Q1 2025 | 10% | -3.4 points |
| Q4 2024 | 9.3% | -5.8 points |
GCT's operating margin was 14% last quarter, up 1.8 points from the same quarter a year ago.
MSFT Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $92.3B | +19% |
| Q2 2026 | $90B | +18% |
| Q1 2026 | $82.9B | +18% |
| Q4 2025 | $81.3B | +17% |
| Q3 2025 | $77.7B | +18% |
| Q2 2025 | $76.4B | +18% |
| Q1 2025 | $70.1B | +13% |
| Q4 2024 | $69.6B | +12% |
MSFT's revenue has grown year over year every quarter since late 2020: $92.3B last quarter, up 19% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 50% | +0.9 points |
| Q2 2026 | 45% | +0.2 points |
| Q1 2026 | 46% | +0.7 points |
| Q4 2025 | 47% | +1.6 points |
| Q3 2025 | 49% | +2.3 points |
| Q2 2025 | 45% | +1.8 points |
| Q1 2025 | 46% | +1.1 points |
| Q4 2024 | 45% | +1.9 points |
MSFT has the edge over GCT on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
GCT Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $55.8M | -28% |
| Q2 2026 | $45.1M | +22% |
| Q1 2026 | -$26.2M | -472% |
| Q4 2025 | $61.7M | -7.9% |
| Q3 2025 | $77.1M | +50% |
| Q2 2025 | $37M | +187% |
| Q1 2025 | $7M | -38% |
| Q4 2024 | $66.9M | +42% |
GCT has the edge over MSFT on cash flow, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
MSFT Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $18.6B | -27% |
| Q2 2026 | $19.6B | -23% |
| Q1 2026 | $15.8B | -22% |
| Q4 2025 | $5.9B | -9.3% |
| Q3 2025 | $25.7B | +33% |
| Q2 2025 | $25.6B | +9.6% |
| Q1 2025 | $20.3B | -3.2% |
| Q4 2024 | $6.5B | -29% |
MSFT's free cash flow has been positive every quarter for seven years: $60B over the past year, down 23% from the year before.
GCT Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -2% | -722K shares |
| 1 year | -4.7% | -1.8M shares |
| 3 years | -12% | -5.1M shares |
| 5 years | -11% | -4.4M shares |
| Available history | +277% | +26.3M shares |
GCT has the edge over MSFT on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $17.7M |
| Q2 2026 | $30M |
| Q1 2026 | $12.3M |
| Q1 2025 | $22.7M |
| Q4 2024 | $23.2M |
| Q4 2023 | — |
| Q3 2023 | $1.5M |
| Q2 2023 | — |
MSFT Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.1% | -7M shares |
| 1 year | -0.3% | -20M shares |
| 3 years | -0.2% | -16M shares |
| 5 years | -1.6% | -121M shares |
| Available history | -3.2% | -245M shares |
MSFT has 7.4B diluted shares, about the same as a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $4.4B |
| Q2 2026 | $4.6B |
| Q1 2026 | $4.6B |
| Q4 2025 | $7.4B |
| Q3 2025 | $5.7B |
| Q2 2025 | $4.5B |
| Q1 2025 | $4.8B |
| Q4 2024 | $5B |
MSFT spent $21B buying back its own shares over the past year, up 5.2% from the year before.
GCT Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -1.9x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | -1.9x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -2.0x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | -2.5x | Net Cash |
| Q3 2025 | -2.4x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -1.7x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -1.9x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | -1.9x | Net Cash |
GCT has the edge over MSFT on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
MSFT Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 0.1x | Very low |
| Q2 2026 | 0.1x | Very low |
MSFT's net debt is less than a year of its operating earnings (EBITDA).
GCT Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 75.7 | Overbought |
| Stochastic | 79.3 | Neutral |
GCT's weekly RSI is 76 (overbought) and its Stochastic is 79 (neutral).
MSFT Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 62.1 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 68.0 | Neutral |
MSFT's weekly RSI is 62 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 68 (neutral).
GCT PE vs Technology Sector
| Metric | GCT | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 14x | 28x | 50% below |
| PE % | 91 | 43 | 48 pts above |
GCT has the edge over MSFT on valuation relative to its sector.
MSFT PE vs Technology Sector
| Metric | MSFT | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 27x | 28x | 2% below |
| PE % | 16 | 35 | 19 pts below |
MSFT is trading at 27x earnings, in line with the Technology sector's median of 28x.
GCT Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $57.8 | 12% above |
| 20 week MA | $50.6 | 28% above |
| 50 week MA | $44.2 | 46% above |
| 100 week MA | $33.1 | 96% above |
| 200 week MA | $25.6 | 153% above |
GCT has the edge over MSFT on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
MSFT Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $524.7 | 0.3% below |
| 20 week MA | $484.8 | 7.9% above |
| 50 week MA | $446.9 | 17% above |
| 100 week MA | $453.8 | 15% above |
| 200 week MA | $411.5 | 27% above |
MSFT's trend is up, with a small recent dip: it's below only its 8-week average, and 27% above its 200-week average.
GCT Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | $48.0 | $5.53 | -88% |
| 2023 | $5.53 | $18.3 | +231% |
| 2024 | $18.3 | $17.6 | -4% |
| 2025 | $17.6 | $40.2 | +129% |
| 2026 YTD | $40.2 | $64.8 | +61% |
GCT has the edge over MSFT on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
MSFT Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $159.0 | $222.8 | +40% |
| 2021 | $222.8 | $334.7 | +50% |
| 2022 | $334.7 | $238.7 | -29% |
| 2023 | $238.7 | $376.0 | +58% |
| 2024 | $376.0 | $430.5 | +14% |
| 2025 | $430.5 | $487.7 | +13% |
| 2026 YTD | $487.7 | $523.0 | +7.2% |
MSFT has finished higher in five of the last six years, two of them by more than 50%. It's up 7.2% so far in 2026.