GCMG
GCM Grosvenor Inc.
GCMG has a slight edge over MS overall, supported by stronger valuation.
MS
Morgan Stanley
MS offers stronger fundamentals, but that advantage does not outweigh its weaker overall profile.
GCMG Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| N/A | |
| N/A |
GCMG's revenue and profitability are currently healthy. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like GCMG.
MS Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| N/A | |
| N/A |
MS's revenue and profitability are currently healthy. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like MS.
GCMG PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forward | 13x | $13.53 | — |
| Cheap | 23x | $13.18 | -2.6% |
| Current | 23x | $13.53 | — |
| Fair | 24x | $14.14 | +4.5% |
| Expensive | 29x | $16.79 | +24% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
GCMG has the edge over MS in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
MS PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 11x | $134 | -29% |
| Fair | 14x | $178 | -5.7% |
| Forward | 14x | $189 | — |
| Current | 15x | $189 | — |
| Expensive | 18x | $223 | +18% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
MS's PE is in its fair range at 15x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 14x next year's earnings.
GCMG Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for GCMG, with profitability improving.
MS Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Growth | |
| Growth | |
| Improving | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for MS, with profitability improving.
GCMG Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $1.06 | +83% |
| Q1 2021 | $0.43 | +$1.02 |
| Q4 2020 | $0.22 | +$0.22 |
GCMG has the edge over MS in the latest year-over-year earnings comparison.
MS Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $13.39 | +6.3% |
| Q3 2026 | $12.60 | +29% |
| Q2 2026 | $12.37 | +40% |
| Q1 2026 | $11.04 | +29% |
| Q4 2025 | $10.21 | +28% |
| Q3 2025 | $9.76 | +48% |
| Q2 2025 | $8.84 | +45% |
| Q1 2025 | $8.53 | +55% |
| Q4 2024 | $7.95 | +53% |
MS's earnings per share have climbed steadily: $12.60 over the past year, up 29% from the year before, and higher year over year for 10 quarters in a row.
GCMG Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $145.6M | +7.8% |
| Q2 2026 | $134.3M | +12% |
| Q1 2026 | $124.8M | -0.8% |
| Q4 2025 | $177.1M | +7.2% |
| Q3 2025 | $135M | +9.8% |
| Q2 2025 | $119.7M | +2.3% |
| Q1 2025 | $125.8M | +16% |
| Q4 2024 | $165.3M | +42% |
GCMG's revenue is recovering but still below its 2021 peak: $146M last quarter, up 7.8% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 32% | -0.5 points |
| Q2 2026 | 26% | +10 points |
| Q1 2026 | 16% | +4.2 points |
| Q4 2025 | 31% | +4.5 points |
| Q3 2025 | 33% | +12 points |
| Q2 2025 | 16% | -1.7 points |
| Q1 2025 | 12% | +27 points |
| Q4 2024 | 26% | +15 points |
GCMG has the edge over MS on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
MS Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $20.3B | +12% |
| Q2 2026 | $21.3B | +27% |
| Q1 2026 | $20.6B | +16% |
| Q4 2025 | $17.9B | +10% |
| Q3 2025 | $18.2B | +18% |
| Q2 2025 | $16.8B | +12% |
| Q1 2025 | $17.7B | +17% |
| Q4 2024 | $16.2B | +26% |
MS has the edge over GCMG on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 32% | -1.2 points |
| Q2 2026 | 34% | +6.9 points |
| Q1 2026 | 34% | +2.8 points |
| Q4 2025 | 32% | +2 points |
| Q3 2025 | 33% | +5.6 points |
| Q2 2025 | 28% | +0.4 points |
| Q1 2025 | 31% | +2.2 points |
| Q4 2024 | 30% | +14 points |
MS's operating margin was 32% last quarter, down 1.2 points from the same quarter a year ago.
GCMG Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $91.9M | +17% |
| Q2 2026 | $36.3M | -11% |
| Q1 2026 | $47.9M | +49% |
| Q4 2025 | $23.9M | -35% |
| Q3 2025 | $78.3M | +26% |
| Q2 2025 | $40.8M | +218% |
| Q1 2025 | $32.1M | +60% |
| Q4 2024 | $37M | +53% |
GCMG has the edge over MS on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
MS Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$46B | -$42.7B |
| Q2 2026 | -$2.7B | -123% |
| Q1 2026 | -$7.1B | +$16.9B |
| Q4 2025 | -$2.4B | -120% |
| Q3 2025 | -$3.3B | +$14B |
| Q2 2025 | $11.8B | +368% |
| Q1 2025 | -$24B | -650% |
| Q4 2024 | $11.8B | +$29.6B |
MS's free cash flow was −$58.3B over the past year, against −$3.7B the year before. Free cash flow isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like MS.
GCMG Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +0.7% | +1.4M shares |
| 1 year | +3.8% | +7.5M shares |
| 3 years | +8.7% | +16.4M shares |
| 5 years | +414% | +165M shares |
GCMG has 205M diluted shares, up 3.8% from a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | — |
| Q2 2026 | $2.2M |
| Q1 2026 | $17.5M |
| Q4 2024 | — |
| Q3 2024 | — |
| Q2 2024 | — |
| Q1 2024 | — |
| Q4 2023 | — |
MS Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.2% | -3M shares |
| 1 year | -1.5% | -24M shares |
| 3 years | -4.7% | -77M shares |
| 5 years | -14% | -246M shares |
| Available history | -4.5% | -74M shares |
MS has the edge over GCMG on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
GCMG Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 1.0x | Healthy |
| Q2 2026 | 1.4x | Healthy |
| Q1 2026 | 1.4x | Healthy |
| Q4 2025 | 1.4x | Healthy |
| Q3 2025 | 2.0x | Healthy |
| Q2 2025 | 2.7x | Moderate |
| Q1 2025 | 3.1x | Elevated |
| Q4 2024 | 4.5x | High |
GCMG has the edge over MS on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
MS Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 7.8x | High |
| Q2 2026 | 7.3x | High |
| Q1 2026 | 8.2x | High |
| Q4 2025 | 8.6x | High |
| Q3 2025 | 8.4x | High |
| Q2 2025 | 8.7x | High |
| Q1 2025 | 8.7x | High |
| Q4 2024 | 7.9x | High |
MS's net debt is about 7.8 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), down from 8.4 years a year ago. Net leverage isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like MS.
GCMG Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 59.6 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 31.7 | Neutral |
GCMG's weekly RSI is 60 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 32 (neutral).
MS Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 45.0 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 18.7 | Oversold |
MS's weekly RSI is 45 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 19 (oversold).
GCMG PE vs Financial Services Sector
| Metric | GCMG | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 23x | 13x | 79% above |
| PE % | 32 | 63 | 31 pts below |
GCMG is trading at 23x earnings, a 79% premium to the Financial Services sector's median of 13x.
MS PE vs Financial Services Sector
| Metric | MS | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 15x | 13x | 15% above |
| PE % | 59 | 63 | 4 pts below |
MS has the edge over GCMG on valuation relative to its sector.
GCMG Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $12.9 | 5% above |
| 20 week MA | $13.1 | 3.5% above |
| 50 week MA | $11.8 | 14% above |
| 100 week MA | $12.1 | 11% above |
| 200 week MA | $10.6 | 28% above |
GCMG has the edge over MS on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
MS Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $186.5 | 1.5% above |
| 20 week MA | $203.3 | 6.9% below |
| 50 week MA | $191.9 | 1.4% below |
| 100 week MA | $164.9 | 15% above |
| 200 week MA | $129.3 | 46% above |
MS's trend is mixed: it's above three of its five weekly moving averages, and 46% above its 200-week average.
GCMG Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $10.2 | $13.6 | +33% |
| 2021 | $13.6 | $10.1 | -26% |
| 2022 | $10.1 | $7.84 | -22% |
| 2023 | $7.84 | $8.96 | +14% |
| 2024 | $8.96 | $12.2 | +36% |
| 2025 | $12.2 | $11.5 | -6.3% |
| 2026 YTD | $11.5 | $13.5 | +18% |
GCMG has the edge over MS on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
MS Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $51.1 | $68.1 | +33% |
| 2021 | $68.1 | $99.3 | +46% |
| 2022 | $99.3 | $86.1 | -13% |
| 2023 | $86.1 | $93.3 | +8.3% |
| 2024 | $93.3 | $126.8 | +36% |
| 2025 | $126.8 | $181.9 | +43% |
| 2026 YTD | $181.9 | $189.2 | +4% |
MS has finished higher in five of the last six years. It's up 4% so far in 2026.