GBDC
Golub Capital BDC, Inc.
GBDC trails on the overall score without a compensating advantage in the available component scores.
MS
Morgan Stanley
MS has the edge over GBDC overall, supported by stronger valuation and stronger fundamentals.
GBDC Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Weak | |
| Healthy | |
| N/A | |
| N/A |
GBDC's profitability is currently healthy, but its revenue is weak. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like GBDC.
MS Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| N/A | |
| N/A |
MS's revenue and profitability are currently healthy. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like MS.
GBDC PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 7.8x | $5.08 | -59% |
| Forward | 9.8x | $12.49 | — |
| Fair | 10x | $6.58 | -47% |
| Expensive | 17x | $10.74 | -14% |
| Current | 19x | $12.49 | — |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
GBDC's PE is in its expensive range at 19x. On analysts' estimates for next year's earnings, today's price would be 9.8x, in its fair range.
MS PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 11x | $134 | -29% |
| Fair | 14x | $178 | -5.7% |
| Forward | 14x | $189 | — |
| Current | 15x | $189 | — |
| Expensive | 18x | $223 | +18% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
MS has the edge over GBDC in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
GBDC Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Decline | |
| Decline | |
| Strongly weakening | |
| Limited | |
| High |
Analysts expect GBDC's earnings and revenue to decline, with profitability weakening.
MS Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Growth | |
| Growth | |
| Improving | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
MS has the edge over GBDC on the outlook, with more favorable earnings and revenue expectations.
GBDC Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $1.27 | +96% |
| Q2 2026 | $0.65 | -53% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.77 | -29% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.25 | -6% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.42 | +4.4% |
| Q2 2025 | $1.37 | -17% |
| Q1 2025 | $1.08 | -47% |
| Q4 2024 | $1.33 | -27% |
| Q3 2024 | $1.36 | -11% |
GBDC's earnings per share have fallen from their peak: $0.65 over the past year, against $2.61 in early 2021.
MS Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $13.39 | +6.3% |
| Q3 2026 | $12.60 | +29% |
| Q2 2026 | $12.37 | +40% |
| Q1 2026 | $11.04 | +29% |
| Q4 2025 | $10.21 | +28% |
| Q3 2025 | $9.76 | +48% |
| Q2 2025 | $8.84 | +45% |
| Q1 2025 | $8.53 | +55% |
| Q4 2024 | $7.95 | +53% |
MS has the edge over GBDC on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
GBDC Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2022 | $73.9M | -18% |
| Q2 2022 | $57.6M | -43% |
| Q1 2022 | $109.5M | -1.5% |
| Q4 2021 | $105.4M | -6.1% |
| Q3 2021 | $90.5M | -19% |
| Q2 2021 | $101.3M | -38% |
| Q4 2020 | $112.3M | +56% |
MS has the stronger quarterly revenue trend. Revenue is down 18% for GBDC versus up 12% for MS.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2022 | 51% | -29 points |
| Q2 2022 | 68% | -14 points |
| Q1 2022 | 79% | -3.4 points |
| Q4 2021 | 77% | -6.8 points |
| Q3 2021 | 80% | -5 points |
| Q2 2021 | 82% | -5.5 points |
| Q1 2021 | 82% | N/A |
| Q4 2020 | 84% | +19 points |
GBDC's operating margin was 51% last quarter, down 29 points from the same quarter a year ago, near the bottom of its range since 2019.
MS Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $20.3B | +12% |
| Q2 2026 | $21.3B | +27% |
| Q1 2026 | $20.6B | +16% |
| Q4 2025 | $17.9B | +10% |
| Q3 2025 | $18.2B | +18% |
| Q2 2025 | $16.8B | +12% |
| Q1 2025 | $17.7B | +17% |
| Q4 2024 | $16.2B | +26% |
MS's revenue has grown year over year for 14 quarters in a row: $20.3B last quarter, up 12% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 32% | -1.2 points |
| Q2 2026 | 34% | +6.9 points |
| Q1 2026 | 34% | +2.8 points |
| Q4 2025 | 32% | +2 points |
| Q3 2025 | 33% | +5.6 points |
| Q2 2025 | 28% | +0.4 points |
| Q1 2025 | 31% | +2.2 points |
| Q4 2024 | 30% | +14 points |
MS's operating margin was 32% last quarter, down 1.2 points from the same quarter a year ago.
GBDC Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $192.7M | +$393.2M |
| Q1 2026 | $248.8M | +27% |
| Q4 2025 | $212M | +$586.7M |
| Q3 2025 | $266.1M | +$466.1M |
| Q2 2025 | -$200.4M | -187% |
| Q1 2025 | $195.4M | +31% |
| Q4 2024 | -$374.7M | -329% |
| Q3 2024 | -$200M | -412% |
GBDC has the edge over MS on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
MS Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$46B | -$42.7B |
| Q2 2026 | -$2.7B | -123% |
| Q1 2026 | -$7.1B | +$16.9B |
| Q4 2025 | -$2.4B | -120% |
| Q3 2025 | -$3.3B | +$14B |
| Q2 2025 | $11.8B | +368% |
| Q1 2025 | -$24B | -650% |
| Q4 2024 | $11.8B | +$29.6B |
MS's free cash flow was −$58.3B over the past year, against −$3.7B the year before. Free cash flow isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like MS.
GBDC Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.8% | -2.2M shares |
| 1 year | -2.4% | -6.4M shares |
| 3 years | +52% | +89.6M shares |
| 5 years | +56% | +93.2M shares |
| Available history | +241% | +184M shares |
GBDC has the edge over MS on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $14.4M |
| Q1 2026 | $27.8M |
| Q4 2025 | $35.9M |
| Q3 2025 | $5.2M |
| Q2 2025 | $34.3M |
| Q3 2024 | $4.8M |
| Q2 2024 | — |
| Q3 2023 | $70,000 |
GBDC spent $83M buying back its own shares over the past year.
MS Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.2% | -3M shares |
| 1 year | -1.5% | -24M shares |
| 3 years | -4.7% | -77M shares |
| 5 years | -14% | -246M shares |
| Available history | -4.5% | -74M shares |
MS has 1.6B diluted shares, down 1.5% from a year ago.
GBDC Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2022 | 12.1x | High |
| Q2 2022 | 10.9x | High |
| Q1 2022 | 8.8x | High |
| Q4 2021 | 8.1x | High |
| Q3 2021 | 7.0x | High |
| Q2 2021 | 5.4x | High |
| Q1 2021 | 4.7x | High |
| Q4 2020 | 22.4x | High |
GBDC's net debt is about 12 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), up from 7.0 years a year ago. Net leverage isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like GBDC.
MS Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 7.8x | High |
| Q2 2026 | 7.3x | High |
| Q1 2026 | 8.2x | High |
| Q4 2025 | 8.6x | High |
| Q3 2025 | 8.4x | High |
| Q2 2025 | 8.7x | High |
| Q1 2025 | 8.7x | High |
| Q4 2024 | 7.9x | High |
MS's net debt is about 7.8 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), down from 8.4 years a year ago. Net leverage isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like MS.
GBDC Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 45.4 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 49.9 | Neutral |
GBDC's weekly RSI is 45 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 50 (neutral).
MS Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 45.0 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 18.7 | Oversold |
MS's weekly RSI is 45 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 19 (oversold).
GBDC PE vs Financial Services Sector
| Metric | GBDC | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 19x | 13x | 48% above |
| PE % | 88 | 63 | 25 pts above |
GBDC is trading at 19x earnings, a 48% premium to the Financial Services sector's median of 13x.
MS PE vs Financial Services Sector
| Metric | MS | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 15x | 13x | 15% above |
| PE % | 59 | 63 | 4 pts below |
MS has the edge over GBDC on valuation relative to its sector.
GBDC Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $12.4 | 0.6% above |
| 20 week MA | $12.7 | 2% below |
| 50 week MA | $12.9 | 3.3% below |
| 100 week MA | $13.8 | 9.6% below |
| 200 week MA | $14.3 | 13% below |
GBDC has bounced recently, but its long-term trend is still down: it's above its 8-week average, but 13% below its 200-week average.
MS Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $186.5 | 1.5% above |
| 20 week MA | $203.3 | 6.9% below |
| 50 week MA | $191.9 | 1.4% below |
| 100 week MA | $164.9 | 15% above |
| 200 week MA | $129.3 | 46% above |
MS has the edge over GBDC on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
GBDC Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $18.5 | $13.8 | -25% |
| 2021 | $13.8 | $15.3 | +11% |
| 2022 | $15.3 | $13.2 | -13% |
| 2023 | $13.2 | $15.1 | +14% |
| 2024 | $15.1 | $15.3 | +1% |
| 2025 | $15.3 | $13.6 | -11% |
| 2026 YTD | $13.6 | $12.5 | -7.8% |
GBDC has finished lower in three of the last six years. It's down 7.8% so far in 2026.
MS Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $51.1 | $68.1 | +33% |
| 2021 | $68.1 | $99.3 | +46% |
| 2022 | $99.3 | $86.1 | -13% |
| 2023 | $86.1 | $93.3 | +8.3% |
| 2024 | $93.3 | $126.8 | +36% |
| 2025 | $126.8 | $181.9 | +43% |
| 2026 YTD | $181.9 | $189.2 | +4% |
MS has the edge over GBDC on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.