GBDC
Golub Capital BDC, Inc.
GBDC's fundamentals are mixed, but it looks expensive: trading at 19x earnings, about twice its usual 10x. Analysts expect earnings to decline.
GBDC Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Weak | |
| Healthy | |
| N/A | |
| N/A |
GBDC's profitability is currently healthy, but its revenue is weak. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like GBDC.
GBDC PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 7.8x | $5.08 | -59% |
| Forward | 9.8x | $12.49 | — |
| Fair | 10x | $6.58 | -47% |
| Expensive | 17x | $10.74 | -14% |
| Current | 19x | $12.49 | — |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
GBDC's PE is in its expensive range at 19x. On analysts' estimates for next year's earnings, today's price would be 9.8x, in its fair range.
GBDC Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Decline | |
| Decline | |
| Strongly weakening | |
| Limited | |
| High |
Analysts expect GBDC's earnings and revenue to decline, with profitability weakening.
GBDC Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $1.27 | +96% |
| Q2 2026 | $0.65 | -53% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.77 | -29% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.25 | -6% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.42 | +4.4% |
| Q2 2025 | $1.37 | -17% |
| Q1 2025 | $1.08 | -47% |
| Q4 2024 | $1.33 | -27% |
| Q3 2024 | $1.36 | -11% |
GBDC's earnings per share have fallen from their peak: $0.65 over the past year, against $2.61 in early 2021.
GBDC Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2022 | $73.9M | -18% |
| Q2 2022 | $57.6M | -43% |
| Q1 2022 | $109.5M | -1.5% |
| Q4 2021 | $105.4M | -6.1% |
| Q3 2021 | $90.5M | -19% |
| Q2 2021 | $101.3M | -38% |
| Q4 2020 | $112.3M | +56% |
GBDC's revenue has slid since its 2020 peak: $74M last quarter, down 18% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2022 | 51% | -29 points |
| Q2 2022 | 68% | -14 points |
| Q1 2022 | 79% | -3.4 points |
| Q4 2021 | 77% | -6.8 points |
| Q3 2021 | 80% | -5 points |
| Q2 2021 | 82% | -5.5 points |
| Q1 2021 | 82% | N/A |
| Q4 2020 | 84% | +19 points |
GBDC's operating margin was 51% last quarter, down 29 points from the same quarter a year ago, near the bottom of its range since 2019.
GBDC Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $192.7M | +$393.2M |
| Q1 2026 | $248.8M | +27% |
| Q4 2025 | $212M | +$586.7M |
| Q3 2025 | $266.1M | +$466.1M |
| Q2 2025 | -$200.4M | -187% |
| Q1 2025 | $195.4M | +31% |
| Q4 2024 | -$374.7M | -329% |
| Q3 2024 | -$200M | -412% |
GBDC's free cash flow was $920M over the past year, against −$580M the year before. Free cash flow isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like GBDC.
GBDC Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.8% | -2.2M shares |
| 1 year | -2.4% | -6.4M shares |
| 3 years | +52% | +89.6M shares |
| 5 years | +56% | +93.2M shares |
| Available history | +241% | +184M shares |
GBDC has 260M diluted shares, down 2.4% from a year ago, with $83M in buybacks over the past year.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $14.4M |
| Q1 2026 | $27.8M |
| Q4 2025 | $35.9M |
| Q3 2025 | $5.2M |
| Q2 2025 | $34.3M |
| Q3 2024 | $4.8M |
| Q2 2024 | — |
| Q3 2023 | $70,000 |
GBDC spent $83M buying back its own shares over the past year.
GBDC Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2022 | 12.1x | High |
| Q2 2022 | 10.9x | High |
| Q1 2022 | 8.8x | High |
| Q4 2021 | 8.1x | High |
| Q3 2021 | 7.0x | High |
| Q2 2021 | 5.4x | High |
| Q1 2021 | 4.7x | High |
| Q4 2020 | 22.4x | High |
GBDC's net debt is about 12 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), up from 7.0 years a year ago. Net leverage isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like GBDC.
GBDC Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 45.4 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 49.9 | Neutral |
GBDC's weekly RSI is 45 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 50 (neutral).
GBDC PE vs Financial Services Sector
| Metric | GBDC | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 19x | 13x | 48% above |
| PE % | 88 | 63 | 25 pts above |
GBDC is trading at 19x earnings, a 48% premium to the Financial Services sector's median of 13x.
GBDC Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $12.4 | 0.6% above |
| 20 week MA | $12.7 | 2% below |
| 50 week MA | $12.9 | 3.3% below |
| 100 week MA | $13.8 | 9.6% below |
| 200 week MA | $14.3 | 13% below |
GBDC has bounced recently, but its long-term trend is still down: it's above its 8-week average, but 13% below its 200-week average.
GBDC Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $18.5 | $13.8 | -25% |
| 2021 | $13.8 | $15.3 | +11% |
| 2022 | $15.3 | $13.2 | -13% |
| 2023 | $13.2 | $15.1 | +14% |
| 2024 | $15.1 | $15.3 | +1% |
| 2025 | $15.3 | $13.6 | -11% |
| 2026 YTD | $13.6 | $12.5 | -7.8% |
GBDC has finished lower in three of the last six years. It's down 7.8% so far in 2026.