GAP
The Gap, Inc.
GAP has the edge over NIO overall, supported by stronger valuation and stronger modeled upside.
NIO
NIO Inc.
NIO offers stronger fundamentals, but that advantage does not outweigh its weaker overall profile.
GAP Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Healthy | |
| Healthy | |
| Strong |
GAP's profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are currently healthy, and its revenue is stable.
NIO Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Strong | |
| Stable | |
| Stable | |
| Unavailable |
NIO's revenue is currently strong, and its profitability and cash flow are stable. There isn't enough data to rate its balance sheet.
GAP PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current | 6.4x | $21.25 | — |
| Forward | 8.2x | $21.25 | — |
| Cheap | 8.5x | $28.27 | +33% |
| Fair | 12x | $39.07 | +84% |
| Expensive | 29x | $96.48 | +354% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
GAP's PE is in its cheap range at 6.4x. On analysts' estimates for next year's earnings, today's price would be 8.2x.
NIO PE Valuation
NIO has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
GAP Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly deteriorating | |
| Strong growth | |
| Stable | |
| Improving | |
| Moderate | |
| Low |
Analysts expect GAP's earnings to grow and its profitability to improve, with its revenue holding steady. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
NIO Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Losses shrinking | |
| Growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
NIO has the edge over GAP on the outlook, with more favorable revenue expectations.
GAP Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $2.60 | -22% |
| Q3 2026 | $3.33 | +43% |
| Q2 2026 | $2.52 | +9.6% |
| Q1 2026 | $2.13 | -3.2% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.23 | +3.2% |
| Q3 2025 | $2.33 | +15% |
| Q2 2025 | $2.30 | +28% |
| Q1 2025 | $2.20 | +64% |
| Q4 2024 | $2.16 | +2060% |
GAP has the edge over NIO on earnings quality, reporting a profit while its opponent remains loss making.
NIO Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | -$0.29 | +$1.45 |
| Q1 2026 | -$0.60 | +$1.16 |
| Q4 2025 | -$1.06 | +$0.60 |
| Q3 2025 | -$1.59 | +$0.02 |
| Q2 2025 | -$1.74 | -$0.10 |
| Q1 2025 | -$1.76 | +$0.06 |
| Q4 2024 | -$1.66 | +$0.21 |
| Q3 2024 | -$1.61 | +$0.32 |
NIO is still losing money, but far less than before: $0.29 per share over the past year, against $1.93 at its worst in late 2023.
GAP Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $3.7B | -2% |
| Q2 2026 | $3.5B | +1% |
| Q1 2026 | $4.2B | +2.1% |
| Q4 2025 | $3.9B | +3% |
| Q3 2025 | $3.7B | +0.1% |
| Q2 2025 | $3.5B | +2.2% |
| Q1 2025 | $4.1B | -3.5% |
| Q4 2024 | $3.8B | +1.6% |
GAP's revenue fell from its 2020 peak and has held roughly level since: $3.7B last quarter, down 2% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 19% | +11 points |
| Q2 2026 | 13% | +5.2 points |
| Q1 2026 | 5.4% | -0.8 points |
| Q4 2025 | 8.5% | -0.8 points |
| Q3 2025 | 7.8% | 0 points |
| Q2 2025 | 7.5% | +1.5 points |
| Q1 2025 | 6.2% | +1.3 points |
| Q4 2024 | 9.3% | +2.6 points |
GAP has the edge over NIO on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
NIO Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $4.8B | +69% |
| Q1 2026 | $3.8B | +112% |
| Q4 2025 | $5.2B | +76% |
| Q3 2025 | $3.3B | +17% |
| Q2 2025 | $2.9B | +9% |
| Q1 2025 | $1.8B | +21% |
| Q4 2024 | $3B | +15% |
| Q3 2024 | $2.8B | -2.1% |
NIO has the edge over GAP on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | -2.1% | +24 points |
| Q1 2026 | -1.2% | +52 points |
| Q4 2025 | 2.3% | +33 points |
| Q3 2025 | -16% | +12 points |
| Q2 2025 | -26% | +4 points |
| Q1 2025 | -53% | +1.1 points |
| Q4 2024 | -31% | +8.1 points |
| Q3 2024 | -28% | -2.6 points |
NIO's operating margin was −2.1% last quarter, up 24 points from the same quarter a year ago.
GAP Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $183M | -48% |
| Q2 2026 | $78M | +$301M |
| Q1 2026 | $543M | +8.8% |
| Q4 2025 | $153M | +7% |
| Q3 2025 | $350M | -24% |
| Q2 2025 | -$223M | -$160M |
| Q1 2025 | $499M | -12% |
| Q4 2024 | $143M | -33% |
GAP generated $957M in free cash flow over the past year, up 24% from the year before.
NIO Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $0 | +$2.1B |
| Q1 2026 | $0 | $0 |
| Q4 2025 | $0 | +$391.3M |
| Q3 2025 | $0 | $0 |
| Q2 2025 | -$2.1B | +$73.9M |
| Q1 2025 | $0 | $0 |
| Q4 2024 | -$391.3M | -386% |
| Q2 2024 | -$2.2B | +$337.9M |
NIO has the edge over GAP on cash flow, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
GAP Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -4.2% | -16M shares |
| 1 year | -4.5% | -17M shares |
| 3 years | -2.4% | -9M shares |
| 5 years | -6.2% | -24M shares |
| Available history | -3.7% | -14M shares |
GAP has the edge over NIO on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $200M |
| Q2 2026 | $401M |
| Q1 2026 | $3M |
| Q4 2025 | — |
| Q3 2025 | $82M |
| Q2 2025 | $70M |
| Q1 2024 | — |
| Q4 2023 | — |
GAP spent $604M buying back its own shares over the past year.
NIO Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +0.6% | +15.6M shares |
| 1 year | +12% | +267M shares |
| 3 years | +51% | +844M shares |
| 5 years | +60% | +933M shares |
| Available history | +143% | +1.5B shares |
NIO has 2.5B diluted shares, up 12% from a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | — |
| Q1 2026 | — |
| Q4 2025 | — |
| Q3 2025 | — |
| Q2 2025 | — |
| Q1 2025 | — |
| Q4 2024 | — |
| Q3 2024 | — |
NIO hasn't bought back shares in the past year.
GAP Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -0.7x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | -0.5x | Net Cash |
| Q3 2025 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -0.5x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
GAP has more cash than debt.
NIO Net Leverage
NIO's operating earnings (EBITDA) were negative over the past year, so its debt can't be measured against them.
GAP Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 46.4 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 35.7 | Neutral |
GAP's weekly RSI is 46 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 36 (neutral).
NIO Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 30.7 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 6.9 | Oversold |
NIO's weekly RSI is 31 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 7 (oversold).
GAP PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector
| Metric | GAP | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 6.4x | 18x | 65% below |
| PE % | 1 | 47 | 46 pts below |
GAP is trading at 6.4x earnings, a 65% discount to the Consumer Cyclical sector's median of 18x.
NIO PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector
NIO has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
GAP Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $22.3 | 4.5% below |
| 20 week MA | $21.3 | 0% above |
| 50 week MA | $23.6 | 9.8% below |
| 100 week MA | $23.0 | 7.5% below |
| 200 week MA | $20.1 | 5.7% above |
GAP has the edge over NIO on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
NIO Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $3.36 | 9.2% below |
| 20 week MA | $4.01 | 24% below |
| 50 week MA | $4.81 | 37% below |
| 100 week MA | $4.85 | 37% below |
| 200 week MA | $6.03 | 49% below |
NIO is in a downtrend: it's below all five of its weekly moving averages, and 49% below its 200-week average.
GAP Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $17.8 | $20.4 | +15% |
| 2021 | $20.4 | $17.3 | -15% |
| 2022 | $17.3 | $12.1 | -30% |
| 2023 | $12.1 | $20.9 | +73% |
| 2024 | $20.9 | $24.3 | +16% |
| 2025 | $24.3 | $26.2 | +7.8% |
| 2026 YTD | $26.2 | $21.3 | -19% |
GAP has the edge over NIO on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
NIO Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $2.42 | $45.8 | +1791% |
| 2021 | $45.8 | $30.5 | -33% |
| 2022 | $30.5 | $11.0 | -64% |
| 2023 | $11.0 | $9.07 | -17% |
| 2024 | $9.07 | $4.48 | -51% |
| 2025 | $4.48 | $5.10 | +14% |
| 2026 YTD | $5.10 | $3.05 | -40% |
NIO's yearly returns have swung widely, from +1791% in 2020 to −64% in 2022. It's down 40% so far in 2026.