FWRG
First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc.
FWRG has the edge over TSLA overall, supported by stronger valuation and stronger modeled upside.
TSLA
Tesla, Inc.
TSLA's outlook is improving, though it still trails on the overall score.
FWRG Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Healthy | |
| Under pressure | |
| Stable |
FWRG's revenue and profitability are currently healthy, and its balance sheet is stable, but its cash flow is under pressure.
TSLA Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Stable | |
| Under pressure | |
| Strong |
TSLA's revenue and balance sheet are currently healthy, and its profitability is stable, but its cash flow is under pressure.
FWRG PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current | 40x | $12.94 | — |
| Cheap | 42x | $13.57 | +4.9% |
| Forward | 55x | $12.94 | — |
| Fair | 70x | $22.45 | +73% |
| Expensive | 199x | $63.78 | +393% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
FWRG has the edge over TSLA in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
TSLA PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 60x | $54.70 | -86% |
| Fair | 174x | $158 | -60% |
| Forward | 196x | $397 | — |
| Expensive | 415x | $378 | -4.9% |
| Current | 437x | $397 | — |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
TSLA's PE is in its expensive range at 437x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 196x next year's earnings, in its fair range.
FWRG Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly deteriorating | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Stable | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for FWRG, with profitability holding steady. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
TSLA Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Growth | |
| Growth | |
| Stable | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
TSLA has the edge over FWRG on the outlook, with more favorable valuation expectations.
FWRG Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $0.23 | -27% |
| Q3 2026 | $0.32 | +300% |
| Q2 2026 | $0.29 | +383% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.28 | +65% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.31 | +3.3% |
FWRG has the edge over TSLA on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
TSLA Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $2.03 | +123% |
| Q3 2026 | $0.91 | -39% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.08 | -38% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.09 | -40% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.08 | -47% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.50 | -59% |
| Q2 2025 | $1.73 | -51% |
| Q1 2025 | $1.82 | -53% |
| Q4 2024 | $2.04 | -53% |
TSLA's earnings per share have fallen from their peak: $0.91 over the past year, against $4.30 in late 2023.
FWRG Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $349.9M | +11% |
| Q2 2026 | $354.7M | +15% |
| Q1 2026 | $331M | +17% |
| Q4 2025 | $316.4M | +20% |
| Q3 2025 | $316M | +26% |
| Q2 2025 | $307.9M | +19% |
| Q1 2025 | $282.2M | +16% |
| Q4 2024 | $263.3M | +7.6% |
FWRG has the edge over TSLA on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 3.2% | 0 points |
| Q2 2026 | 2.3% | -0.1 points |
| Q1 2026 | 0.3% | -0.1 points |
| Q4 2025 | 2.9% | +1.4 points |
| Q3 2025 | 3.2% | +0.7 points |
| Q2 2025 | 2.4% | -4 points |
| Q1 2025 | 0.4% | -4.7 points |
| Q4 2024 | 1.5% | -1.3 points |
FWRG has the edge over TSLA on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
TSLA Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $28B | -0.2% |
| Q2 2026 | $28.2B | +26% |
| Q1 2026 | $22.4B | +16% |
| Q4 2025 | $24.9B | -3.1% |
| Q3 2025 | $28.1B | +12% |
| Q2 2025 | $22.5B | -12% |
| Q1 2025 | $19.3B | -9.2% |
| Q4 2024 | $25.7B | +2.1% |
TSLA's revenue has picked up after two years of holding roughly level: $28B last quarter, about level with the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 2.6% | -3.2 points |
| Q2 2026 | 1.4% | -2.7 points |
| Q1 2026 | 4.2% | +2.1 points |
| Q4 2025 | 5.7% | -0.5 points |
| Q3 2025 | 5.8% | -5 points |
| Q2 2025 | 4.1% | -2.2 points |
| Q1 2025 | 2.1% | -3.4 points |
| Q4 2024 | 6.2% | -2 points |
TSLA's operating margin was 2.6% last quarter, down 3.2 points from the same quarter a year ago, near the bottom of its range since 2019.
FWRG Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $5.1M | -5.9% |
| Q2 2026 | -$13.1M | -$11.4M |
| Q1 2026 | $5.1M | +$21.5M |
| Q4 2025 | -$18.3M | -$588K |
| Q3 2025 | $5.5M | -20% |
| Q2 2025 | -$1.7M | -174% |
| Q1 2025 | -$16.4M | -$12.8M |
| Q4 2024 | -$17.8M | -$8.3M |
FWRG has burned cash in most quarters: −$21M over the past year, against −$30M the year before.
TSLA Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1.5B | -62% |
| Q2 2026 | -$1.1B | -848% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.4B | +117% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.4B | -30% |
| Q3 2025 | $4B | +46% |
| Q2 2025 | $146M | -89% |
| Q1 2025 | $664M | +$3.2B |
| Q4 2024 | $2B | -1.6% |
TSLA has the edge over FWRG on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
FWRG Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +0.4% | +254K shares |
| 1 year | -0.5% | -283K shares |
| 3 years | +1.6% | +988K shares |
| 5 years | +36% | +16.5M shares |
| Available history | +39% | +17.5M shares |
FWRG has the edge over TSLA on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q2 2021 | — |
| Q1 2021 | — |
| Q4 2020 | — |
| Q3 2020 | — |
| Q2 2020 | — |
| Q1 2020 | — |
TSLA Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | 0% | +1M shares |
| 1 year | +0.4% | +15M shares |
| 3 years | +1.4% | +48M shares |
| 5 years | +5.1% | +172M shares |
| Available history | +33% | +886M shares |
TSLA has 3.5B diluted shares, about the same as a year ago.
FWRG Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 2.3x | Moderate |
| Q2 2026 | 2.4x | Moderate |
| Q1 2026 | 2.4x | Moderate |
| Q4 2025 | 2.6x | Moderate |
| Q3 2025 | 2.6x | Moderate |
| Q2 2025 | 2.9x | Moderate |
| Q1 2025 | 2.0x | Moderate |
| Q4 2024 | 1.7x | Healthy |
FWRG's net debt is about 2.3 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), down from 2.6 years a year ago.
TSLA Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -1.1x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | -0.8x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -0.9x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | -1.1x | Net Cash |
| Q3 2025 | -1.4x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -1.1x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -1.1x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | -1.0x | Net Cash |
TSLA has the edge over FWRG on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
FWRG Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 54.0 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 73.3 | Neutral |
FWRG's weekly RSI is 54 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 73 (neutral).
TSLA Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 54.3 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 72.6 | Neutral |
TSLA's weekly RSI is 54 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 73 (neutral).
FWRG PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector
| Metric | FWRG | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 40x | 18x | 124% above |
| PE % | 11 | 57 | 46 pts below |
FWRG has the edge over TSLA on valuation relative to its sector.
TSLA PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector
| Metric | TSLA | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 437x | 18x | 2,324% above |
| PE % | 84 | 47 | 37 pts above |
TSLA is trading at 437x earnings, a 2324% premium to the Consumer Cyclical sector's median of 18x.
FWRG Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $11.7 | 11% above |
| 20 week MA | $12.0 | 7.7% above |
| 50 week MA | $13.0 | 0.5% below |
| 100 week MA | $15.3 | 16% below |
| 200 week MA | $16.8 | 23% below |
FWRG has bounced recently, but its long-term trend is still down: it's above its 8- and 20-week averages, but 23% below its 200-week average.
TSLA Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $376.0 | 5.7% above |
| 20 week MA | $364.0 | 9.2% above |
| 50 week MA | $393.6 | 1% above |
| 100 week MA | $372.1 | 6.8% above |
| 200 week MA | $296.9 | 34% above |
TSLA has the edge over FWRG on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
FWRG Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | $22.1 | $16.0 | -28% |
| 2022 | $16.0 | $14.2 | -11% |
| 2023 | $14.2 | $20.1 | +41% |
| 2024 | $20.1 | $18.7 | -7% |
| 2025 | $18.7 | $15.9 | -15% |
| 2026 YTD | $15.9 | $12.9 | -19% |
FWRG has finished lower in four of the last five years. It's down 19% so far in 2026.
TSLA Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $28.7 | $220.6 | +669% |
| 2021 | $220.6 | $355.7 | +61% |
| 2022 | $355.7 | $123.2 | -65% |
| 2023 | $123.2 | $248.5 | +102% |
| 2024 | $248.5 | $431.7 | +74% |
| 2025 | $431.7 | $475.2 | +10% |
| 2026 YTD | $475.2 | $397.5 | -16% |
TSLA has the edge over FWRG on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.