FWRG
First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc.
FWRG's fundamentals are strong and it looks cheap: trading at 40x earnings, below its usual 71x. Analysts expect strong earnings growth, though they disagree widely on how much.
FWRG Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Healthy | |
| Under pressure | |
| Stable |
FWRG's revenue and profitability are currently healthy, and its balance sheet is stable, but its cash flow is under pressure.
FWRG PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current | 40x | $12.94 | — |
| Cheap | 42x | $13.57 | +4.9% |
| Forward | 55x | $12.94 | — |
| Fair | 70x | $22.45 | +73% |
| Expensive | 199x | $63.78 | +393% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
FWRG's PE is in its cheap range at 40x. On analysts' estimates for next year's earnings, today's price would be 55x, in its fair range.
FWRG Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly deteriorating | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Stable | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for FWRG, with profitability holding steady. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
FWRG Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $0.23 | -27% |
| Q3 2026 | $0.32 | +300% |
| Q2 2026 | $0.29 | +383% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.28 | +65% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.31 | +3.3% |
FWRG earned $0.32 per share over the past year, about four times what it earned the year before.
FWRG Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $349.9M | +11% |
| Q2 2026 | $354.7M | +15% |
| Q1 2026 | $331M | +17% |
| Q4 2025 | $316.4M | +20% |
| Q3 2025 | $316M | +26% |
| Q2 2025 | $307.9M | +19% |
| Q1 2025 | $282.2M | +16% |
| Q4 2024 | $263.3M | +7.6% |
FWRG's revenue has grown year over year every quarter since early 2021: $350M last quarter, up 11% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 3.2% | 0 points |
| Q2 2026 | 2.3% | -0.1 points |
| Q1 2026 | 0.3% | -0.1 points |
| Q4 2025 | 2.9% | +1.4 points |
| Q3 2025 | 3.2% | +0.7 points |
| Q2 2025 | 2.4% | -4 points |
| Q1 2025 | 0.4% | -4.7 points |
| Q4 2024 | 1.5% | -1.3 points |
FWRG's operating margin was 3.2% last quarter, about level with the same quarter a year ago.
FWRG Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $5.1M | -5.9% |
| Q2 2026 | -$13.1M | -$11.4M |
| Q1 2026 | $5.1M | +$21.5M |
| Q4 2025 | -$18.3M | -$588K |
| Q3 2025 | $5.5M | -20% |
| Q2 2025 | -$1.7M | -174% |
| Q1 2025 | -$16.4M | -$12.8M |
| Q4 2024 | -$17.8M | -$8.3M |
FWRG has burned cash in most quarters: −$21M over the past year, against −$30M the year before.
FWRG Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +0.4% | +254K shares |
| 1 year | -0.5% | -283K shares |
| 3 years | +1.6% | +988K shares |
| 5 years | +36% | +16.5M shares |
| Available history | +39% | +17.5M shares |
FWRG has 63M diluted shares, about the same as a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q2 2021 | — |
| Q1 2021 | — |
| Q4 2020 | — |
| Q3 2020 | — |
| Q2 2020 | — |
| Q1 2020 | — |
FWRG Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 2.3x | Moderate |
| Q2 2026 | 2.4x | Moderate |
| Q1 2026 | 2.4x | Moderate |
| Q4 2025 | 2.6x | Moderate |
| Q3 2025 | 2.6x | Moderate |
| Q2 2025 | 2.9x | Moderate |
| Q1 2025 | 2.0x | Moderate |
| Q4 2024 | 1.7x | Healthy |
FWRG's net debt is about 2.3 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), down from 2.6 years a year ago.
FWRG Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 54.0 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 73.3 | Neutral |
FWRG's weekly RSI is 54 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 73 (neutral).
FWRG PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector
| Metric | FWRG | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 40x | 18x | 124% above |
| PE % | 11 | 57 | 46 pts below |
FWRG is trading at 40x earnings, a 124% premium to the Consumer Cyclical sector's median of 18x.
FWRG Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $11.7 | 11% above |
| 20 week MA | $12.0 | 7.7% above |
| 50 week MA | $13.0 | 0.5% below |
| 100 week MA | $15.3 | 16% below |
| 200 week MA | $16.8 | 23% below |
FWRG has bounced recently, but its long-term trend is still down: it's above its 8- and 20-week averages, but 23% below its 200-week average.
FWRG Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | $22.1 | $16.0 | -28% |
| 2022 | $16.0 | $14.2 | -11% |
| 2023 | $14.2 | $20.1 | +41% |
| 2024 | $20.1 | $18.7 | -7% |
| 2025 | $18.7 | $15.9 | -15% |
| 2026 YTD | $15.9 | $12.9 | -19% |
FWRG has finished lower in four of the last five years. It's down 19% so far in 2026.