FWRG
First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc.
FWRG has the edge over NKE overall, supported by stronger modeled upside and stronger fundamentals.
NKE
NIKE, Inc.
NKE has slightly lower modeled downside risk, despite its lower overall score.
FWRG Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Healthy | |
| Under pressure | |
| Stable |
FWRG's revenue and profitability are currently healthy, and its balance sheet is stable, but its cash flow is under pressure.
NKE Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Healthy | |
| Stable | |
| Strong |
NKE's profitability and balance sheet are currently healthy, and its revenue and cash flow are stable.
FWRG PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current | 40x | $12.94 | — |
| Cheap | 42x | $13.57 | +4.9% |
| Forward | 55x | $12.94 | — |
| Fair | 70x | $22.45 | +73% |
| Expensive | 199x | $63.78 | +393% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
FWRG's PE is in its cheap range at 40x. On analysts' estimates for next year's earnings, today's price would be 55x, in its fair range.
NKE PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current | 18x | $37.76 | — |
| Cheap | 23x | $47.70 | +26% |
| Forward | 30x | $37.76 | — |
| Fair | 33x | $68.16 | +80% |
| Expensive | 47x | $97.86 | +159% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
NKE has the edge over FWRG in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
FWRG Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly deteriorating | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Stable | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for FWRG, with profitability holding steady. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
NKE Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly deteriorating | |
| Stable | |
| Decline | |
| Improving | |
| Moderate | |
| Low |
Analysts expect NKE's profitability to improve, but its revenue to decline. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
FWRG Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $0.23 | -27% |
| Q3 2026 | $0.32 | +300% |
| Q2 2026 | $0.29 | +383% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.28 | +65% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.31 | +3.3% |
FWRG has the edge over NKE on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
NKE Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $1.27 | -39% |
| Q3 2026 | $2.09 | +7.2% |
| Q2 2026 | $2.10 | -2.8% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.51 | -50% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.70 | -48% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.95 | -44% |
| Q2 2025 | $2.16 | -42% |
| Q1 2025 | $3.01 | -11% |
| Q4 2024 | $3.24 | -5.3% |
NKE's earnings per share have fallen from their peak: $2.09 over the past year, against $3.82 in late 2021.
FWRG Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $349.9M | +11% |
| Q2 2026 | $354.7M | +15% |
| Q1 2026 | $331M | +17% |
| Q4 2025 | $316.4M | +20% |
| Q3 2025 | $316M | +26% |
| Q2 2025 | $307.9M | +19% |
| Q1 2025 | $282.2M | +16% |
| Q4 2024 | $263.3M | +7.6% |
FWRG has the edge over NKE on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 3.2% | 0 points |
| Q2 2026 | 2.3% | -0.1 points |
| Q1 2026 | 0.3% | -0.1 points |
| Q4 2025 | 2.9% | +1.4 points |
| Q3 2025 | 3.2% | +0.7 points |
| Q2 2025 | 2.4% | -4 points |
| Q1 2025 | 0.4% | -4.7 points |
| Q4 2024 | 1.5% | -1.3 points |
FWRG's operating margin was 3.2% last quarter, about level with the same quarter a year ago.
NKE Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $11.2B | -4.3% |
| Q2 2026 | $11B | -1.1% |
| Q1 2026 | $11.3B | +0.1% |
| Q4 2025 | $12.4B | +0.6% |
| Q3 2025 | $11.7B | +1.1% |
| Q2 2025 | $11.1B | -12% |
| Q1 2025 | $11.3B | -9.3% |
| Q4 2024 | $12.4B | -7.7% |
NKE's revenue fell from its 2023 peak and has held roughly level since: $11.2B last quarter, down 4.3% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 8.2% | +0.3 points |
| Q2 2026 | 12% | +9.2 points |
| Q1 2026 | 5.8% | -1.7 points |
| Q4 2025 | 8% | -3.4 points |
| Q3 2025 | 7.9% | -3.4 points |
| Q2 2025 | 2.9% | -11 points |
| Q1 2025 | 7.5% | -3.8 points |
| Q4 2024 | 11% | -2.9 points |
NKE has the edge over FWRG on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
FWRG Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $5.1M | -5.9% |
| Q2 2026 | -$13.1M | -$11.4M |
| Q1 2026 | $5.1M | +$21.5M |
| Q4 2025 | -$18.3M | -$588K |
| Q3 2025 | $5.5M | -20% |
| Q2 2025 | -$1.7M | -174% |
| Q1 2025 | -$16.4M | -$12.8M |
| Q4 2024 | -$17.8M | -$8.3M |
FWRG has burned cash in most quarters: −$21M over the past year, against −$30M the year before.
NKE Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$64M | -527% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.5B | +313% |
| Q1 2026 | $284M | -83% |
| Q4 2025 | $386M | -58% |
| Q3 2025 | $15M | -95% |
| Q2 2025 | $363M | -85% |
| Q1 2025 | $1.7B | -11% |
| Q4 2024 | $920M | -65% |
NKE has the edge over FWRG on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
FWRG Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +0.4% | +254K shares |
| 1 year | -0.5% | -283K shares |
| 3 years | +1.6% | +988K shares |
| 5 years | +36% | +16.5M shares |
| Available history | +39% | +17.5M shares |
FWRG has the edge over NKE on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q2 2021 | — |
| Q1 2021 | — |
| Q4 2020 | — |
| Q3 2020 | — |
| Q2 2020 | — |
| Q1 2020 | — |
NKE Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +0.2% | +3.2M shares |
| 1 year | +0.4% | +5.2M shares |
| 3 years | -3.8% | -59.1M shares |
| 5 years | -8.4% | -135M shares |
| Available history | -6.9% | -110M shares |
NKE has 1.5B diluted shares, about the same as a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | — |
| Q2 2026 | — |
| Q1 2026 | — |
| Q4 2025 | $20M |
| Q3 2025 | $126M |
| Q2 2025 | $199M |
| Q1 2025 | $506M |
| Q4 2024 | $1.1B |
NKE has spent almost nothing on buybacks in the past year.
FWRG Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 2.3x | Moderate |
| Q2 2026 | 2.4x | Moderate |
| Q1 2026 | 2.4x | Moderate |
| Q4 2025 | 2.6x | Moderate |
| Q3 2025 | 2.6x | Moderate |
| Q2 2025 | 2.9x | Moderate |
| Q1 2025 | 2.0x | Moderate |
| Q4 2024 | 1.7x | Healthy |
FWRG's net debt is about 2.3 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), down from 2.6 years a year ago.
NKE Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 0.2x | Very low |
| Q2 2026 | 0.1x | Very low |
| Q1 2025 | 0.1x | Very low |
| Q4 2024 | 0.2x | Very low |
| Q3 2024 | 0.1x | Very low |
| Q2 2024 | -0.1x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2024 | -0.0x | Very low |
| Q4 2023 | 0.1x | Very low |
NKE has the edge over FWRG on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
FWRG Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 54.0 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 73.3 | Neutral |
FWRG's weekly RSI is 54 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 73 (neutral).
NKE Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 40.0 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 57.5 | Neutral |
NKE's weekly RSI is 40 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 58 (neutral).
FWRG PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector
| Metric | FWRG | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 40x | 18x | 124% above |
| PE % | 11 | 57 | 46 pts below |
FWRG is trading at 40x earnings, a 124% premium to the Consumer Cyclical sector's median of 18x.
NKE PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector
| Metric | NKE | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 18x | 18x | 0.3% above |
| PE % | 2 | 47 | 45 pts below |
NKE has the edge over FWRG on valuation relative to its sector.
FWRG Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $11.7 | 11% above |
| 20 week MA | $12.0 | 7.7% above |
| 50 week MA | $13.0 | 0.5% below |
| 100 week MA | $15.3 | 16% below |
| 200 week MA | $16.8 | 23% below |
FWRG has the edge over NKE on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
NKE Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $36.7 | 2.8% above |
| 20 week MA | $39.2 | 3.6% below |
| 50 week MA | $48.0 | 21% below |
| 100 week MA | $58.4 | 35% below |
| 200 week MA | $79.2 | 52% below |
NKE has bounced recently, but its long-term trend is still down: it's above its 8-week average, but 52% below its 200-week average.
FWRG Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | $22.1 | $16.0 | -28% |
| 2022 | $16.0 | $14.2 | -11% |
| 2023 | $14.2 | $20.1 | +41% |
| 2024 | $20.1 | $18.7 | -7% |
| 2025 | $18.7 | $15.9 | -15% |
| 2026 YTD | $15.9 | $12.9 | -19% |
FWRG has the edge over NKE on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
NKE Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $101.6 | $141.6 | +39% |
| 2021 | $141.6 | $165.7 | +17% |
| 2022 | $165.7 | $116.3 | -30% |
| 2023 | $116.3 | $108.6 | -6.6% |
| 2024 | $108.6 | $76.4 | -30% |
| 2025 | $76.4 | $60.9 | -20% |
| 2026 YTD | $60.9 | $37.8 | -38% |
NKE has finished four years in a row lower, and it's down 38% so far in 2026.