FWRG
First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc.
FWRG has the edge over LCID overall, supported by stronger valuation and lower modeled downside.
LCID
Lucid Group, Inc.
LCID's outlook is improving, though it still trails on the overall score.
FWRG Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Healthy | |
| Under pressure | |
| Stable |
FWRG's revenue and profitability are currently healthy, and its balance sheet is stable, but its cash flow is under pressure.
LCID Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Weak | |
| Weak | |
| Unavailable |
LCID's revenue is currently healthy, but its profitability and cash flow are weak. There isn't enough data to rate its balance sheet.
FWRG PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current | 40x | $12.94 | — |
| Cheap | 42x | $13.57 | +4.9% |
| Forward | 55x | $12.94 | — |
| Fair | 70x | $22.45 | +73% |
| Expensive | 199x | $63.78 | +393% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
FWRG's PE is in its cheap range at 40x. On analysts' estimates for next year's earnings, today's price would be 55x, in its fair range.
LCID PE Valuation
LCID has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
FWRG Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly deteriorating | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Stable | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for FWRG, with profitability holding steady. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
LCID Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Losses shrinking | |
| Strong growth | |
| -- | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect LCID's losses to shrink, with revenue growing. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
FWRG Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $0.23 | -27% |
| Q3 2026 | $0.32 | +300% |
| Q2 2026 | $0.29 | +383% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.28 | +65% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.31 | +3.3% |
FWRG has the edge over LCID on earnings quality, reporting a profit while its opponent remains loss making.
LCID Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$13.08 | -$2.57 |
| Q2 2026 | -$13.65 | -$2.35 |
| Q1 2026 | -$13.15 | -$1.25 |
| Q4 2025 | -$12.09 | +$0.41 |
| Q3 2025 | -$10.51 | +$2.49 |
| Q2 2025 | -$11.30 | +$0.40 |
| Q1 2025 | -$11.90 | +$0.40 |
| Q4 2024 | -$12.50 | +$1.10 |
LCID is still losing money, but less than at its worst: $13.08 per share over the past year, against $16.50 at its worst in mid-2023.
FWRG Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $349.9M | +11% |
| Q2 2026 | $354.7M | +15% |
| Q1 2026 | $331M | +17% |
| Q4 2025 | $316.4M | +20% |
| Q3 2025 | $316M | +26% |
| Q2 2025 | $307.9M | +19% |
| Q1 2025 | $282.2M | +16% |
| Q4 2024 | $263.3M | +7.6% |
FWRG's revenue has grown year over year every quarter since early 2021: $350M last quarter, up 11% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 3.2% | 0 points |
| Q2 2026 | 2.3% | -0.1 points |
| Q1 2026 | 0.3% | -0.1 points |
| Q4 2025 | 2.9% | +1.4 points |
| Q3 2025 | 3.2% | +0.7 points |
| Q2 2025 | 2.4% | -4 points |
| Q1 2025 | 0.4% | -4.7 points |
| Q4 2024 | 1.5% | -1.3 points |
FWRG has the edge over LCID on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
LCID Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $350.3M | +4.1% |
| Q2 2026 | $405.3M | +56% |
| Q1 2026 | $282.5M | +20% |
| Q4 2025 | $522.7M | +123% |
| Q3 2025 | $336.6M | +68% |
| Q2 2025 | $259.4M | +29% |
| Q1 2025 | $235M | +36% |
| Q4 2024 | $234.5M | +49% |
LCID has the edge over FWRG on sales, with stronger typical year-over-year growth.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -245% | +35 points |
| Q2 2026 | -267% | +43 points |
| Q1 2026 | -350% | -56 points |
| Q4 2025 | -204% | +109 points |
| Q3 2025 | -280% | +105 points |
| Q2 2025 | -310% | +83 points |
| Q1 2025 | -294% | +128 points |
| Q4 2024 | -313% | +156 points |
LCID's operating margin was −245% last quarter, up 35 points from the same quarter a year ago, near the top of its range since 2020.
FWRG Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $5.1M | -5.9% |
| Q2 2026 | -$13.1M | -$11.4M |
| Q1 2026 | $5.1M | +$21.5M |
| Q4 2025 | -$18.3M | -$588K |
| Q3 2025 | $5.5M | -20% |
| Q2 2025 | -$1.7M | -174% |
| Q1 2025 | -$16.4M | -$12.8M |
| Q4 2024 | -$17.8M | -$8.3M |
FWRG has burned cash in most quarters: −$21M over the past year, against −$30M the year before.
LCID Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$1B | -$84.2M |
| Q2 2026 | -$1.5B | -$463.2M |
| Q1 2026 | -$1.4B | -$849M |
| Q4 2025 | -$1.2B | -$417.1M |
| Q3 2025 | -$955.5M | -$333M |
| Q2 2025 | -$1B | -$271.6M |
| Q1 2025 | -$589.9M | +$125.1M |
| Q4 2024 | -$824.8M | -$77.6M |
LCID has burned cash in almost every quarter: −$5.2B over the past year, against −$3.4B the year before.
FWRG Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +0.4% | +254K shares |
| 1 year | -0.5% | -283K shares |
| 3 years | +1.6% | +988K shares |
| 5 years | +36% | +16.5M shares |
| Available history | +39% | +17.5M shares |
FWRG has the edge over LCID on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q2 2021 | — |
| Q1 2021 | — |
| Q4 2020 | — |
| Q3 2020 | — |
| Q2 2020 | — |
| Q1 2020 | — |
LCID Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +3.3% | +12.5M shares |
| 1 year | +26% | +82.4M shares |
| 3 years | +73% | +166M shares |
LCID has 395M diluted shares, up 26% from a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q4 2020 | $2.2M |
| Q1 2020 | — |
FWRG Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 2.3x | Moderate |
| Q2 2026 | 2.4x | Moderate |
| Q1 2026 | 2.4x | Moderate |
| Q4 2025 | 2.6x | Moderate |
| Q3 2025 | 2.6x | Moderate |
| Q2 2025 | 2.9x | Moderate |
| Q1 2025 | 2.0x | Moderate |
| Q4 2024 | 1.7x | Healthy |
FWRG's net debt is about 2.3 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), down from 2.6 years a year ago.
LCID Net Leverage
LCID's operating earnings (EBITDA) were negative over the past year, so its debt can't be measured against them.
FWRG Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 54.0 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 73.3 | Neutral |
FWRG's weekly RSI is 54 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 73 (neutral).
LCID Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 32.9 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 7.1 | Oversold |
LCID's weekly RSI is 33 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 7 (oversold).
FWRG PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector
| Metric | FWRG | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 40x | 18x | 124% above |
| PE % | 11 | 57 | 46 pts below |
FWRG is trading at 40x earnings, a 124% premium to the Consumer Cyclical sector's median of 18x.
LCID PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector
LCID has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
FWRG Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $11.7 | 11% above |
| 20 week MA | $12.0 | 7.7% above |
| 50 week MA | $13.0 | 0.5% below |
| 100 week MA | $15.3 | 16% below |
| 200 week MA | $16.8 | 23% below |
FWRG has the edge over LCID on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
LCID Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $3.53 | 7.9% below |
| 20 week MA | $4.88 | 33% below |
| 50 week MA | $7.33 | 56% below |
| 100 week MA | $15.4 | 79% below |
| 200 week MA | $31.9 | 90% below |
LCID is in a downtrend: it's below all five of its weekly moving averages, and 90% below its 200-week average.
FWRG Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | $22.1 | $16.0 | -28% |
| 2022 | $16.0 | $14.2 | -11% |
| 2023 | $14.2 | $20.1 | +41% |
| 2024 | $20.1 | $18.7 | -7% |
| 2025 | $18.7 | $15.9 | -15% |
| 2026 YTD | $15.9 | $12.9 | -19% |
FWRG has the edge over LCID on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
LCID Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $98.9 | $100.4 | +1.5% |
| 2021 | $100.4 | $376.4 | +275% |
| 2022 | $376.4 | $67.0 | -82% |
| 2023 | $67.0 | $42.1 | -37% |
| 2024 | $42.1 | $32.0 | -24% |
| 2025 | $32.0 | $11.4 | -64% |
| 2026 YTD | $11.4 | $3.25 | -72% |
LCID has finished four years in a row lower, and it's down 72% so far in 2026.