FOUR
Shift4 Payments, Inc.
FOUR's outlook is improving, though it still trails on the overall score.
MSFT
Microsoft Corporation
MSFT has the edge over FOUR overall, supported by lower modeled downside and stronger valuation.
FOUR Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Healthy | |
| Healthy | |
| Weak |
FOUR's revenue, profitability and cash flow are currently healthy, but its balance sheet is weak.
MSFT Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| Healthy | |
| Strong |
MSFT's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently healthy.
FOUR PE Valuation
FOUR has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
MSFT PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forward | 25x | $523 | — |
| Cheap | 27x | $525 | +0.4% |
| Current | 27x | $523 | — |
| Fair | 34x | $652 | +25% |
| Expensive | 37x | $711 | +36% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
MSFT's PE is in its cheap range at 27x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 25x next year's earnings.
FOUR Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Stable | |
| Moderate | |
| Low |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for FOUR, with profitability holding steady. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
MSFT Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strong growth | |
| Stable | |
| Moderate | |
| High |
Analysts expect strong earnings and revenue growth for MSFT, with profitability holding steady.
FOUR Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $7.29 | +331% |
| Q3 2024 | $1.69 | +5% |
| Q2 2024 | $1.64 | +3.1% |
| Q1 2024 | $1.48 | +14% |
| Q4 2023 | $1.36 | +37% |
| Q3 2023 | $1.61 | +360% |
| Q2 2023 | $1.59 | +$1.94 |
| Q1 2023 | $1.30 | +$1.73 |
| Q4 2022 | $0.99 | +$1.91 |
MSFT has the stronger earnings trend. Trailing diluted EPS is up 5% for FOUR versus MSFT up 36%.
MSFT Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $20.79 | +8.6% |
| Q3 2026 | $19.15 | +36% |
| Q2 2026 | $17.95 | +32% |
| Q1 2026 | $16.80 | +30% |
| Q4 2025 | $15.99 | +29% |
| Q3 2025 | $14.06 | +16% |
| Q2 2025 | $13.64 | +16% |
| Q1 2025 | $12.93 | +12% |
| Q4 2024 | $12.41 | +12% |
MSFT's earnings per share have climbed steadily: $19.15 over the past year, up 36% from the year before, and higher year over year for 14 quarters in a row.
FOUR Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1.3B | +12% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.3B | +34% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.1B | +32% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.2B | +34% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.2B | +29% |
| Q2 2025 | $966.2M | +17% |
| Q1 2025 | $848.3M | +20% |
| Q4 2024 | $887M | +26% |
FOUR has the edge over MSFT on sales, with stronger typical year-over-year growth.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 9.9% | +0.1 points |
| Q2 2026 | 7.3% | -1.3 points |
| Q1 2026 | 4.5% | +1.5 points |
| Q4 2025 | 11% | +1.1 points |
| Q3 2025 | 9.7% | +0.9 points |
| Q2 2025 | 8.6% | +1.4 points |
| Q1 2025 | 3% | 0 points |
| Q4 2024 | 9.7% | +5.8 points |
FOUR's operating margin was 9.9% last quarter, about level with the same quarter a year ago, near the top of its range since 2019.
MSFT Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $92.3B | +19% |
| Q2 2026 | $90B | +18% |
| Q1 2026 | $82.9B | +18% |
| Q4 2025 | $81.3B | +17% |
| Q3 2025 | $77.7B | +18% |
| Q2 2025 | $76.4B | +18% |
| Q1 2025 | $70.1B | +13% |
| Q4 2024 | $69.6B | +12% |
MSFT's revenue has grown year over year every quarter since late 2020: $92.3B last quarter, up 19% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 50% | +0.9 points |
| Q2 2026 | 45% | +0.2 points |
| Q1 2026 | 46% | +0.7 points |
| Q4 2025 | 47% | +1.6 points |
| Q3 2025 | 49% | +2.3 points |
| Q2 2025 | 45% | +1.8 points |
| Q1 2025 | 46% | +1.1 points |
| Q4 2024 | 45% | +1.9 points |
MSFT has the edge over FOUR on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
FOUR Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $216M | -21% |
| Q2 2026 | $57M | -39% |
| Q1 2026 | $128M | +186% |
| Q4 2025 | $222.5M | +55% |
| Q3 2025 | $272.5M | +3.4% |
| Q2 2025 | $93M | +24% |
| Q1 2025 | $44.8M | -50% |
| Q4 2024 | $143.8M | +97% |
FOUR has the edge over MSFT on cash flow, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
MSFT Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $18.6B | -27% |
| Q2 2026 | $19.6B | -23% |
| Q1 2026 | $15.8B | -22% |
| Q4 2025 | $5.9B | -9.3% |
| Q3 2025 | $25.7B | +33% |
| Q2 2025 | $25.6B | +9.6% |
| Q1 2025 | $20.3B | -3.2% |
| Q4 2024 | $6.5B | -29% |
MSFT's free cash flow has been positive every quarter for seven years: $60B over the past year, down 23% from the year before.
FOUR Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -5.1% | -4M shares |
| 1 year | -16% | -14.3M shares |
| 3 years | -11% | -9.5M shares |
| 5 years | -7.4% | -6M shares |
FOUR has the edge over MSFT on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $190M |
| Q2 2026 | $26M |
| Q1 2026 | $295M |
| Q4 2025 | $304.8M |
| Q3 2025 | — |
| Q2 2025 | $85.3M |
| Q1 2025 | $62.9M |
| Q4 2024 | $110M |
FOUR spent $816M buying back its own shares over the past year, about three times what it spent the year before.
MSFT Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.1% | -7M shares |
| 1 year | -0.3% | -20M shares |
| 3 years | -0.2% | -16M shares |
| 5 years | -1.6% | -121M shares |
| Available history | -3.2% | -245M shares |
MSFT has 7.4B diluted shares, about the same as a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $4.4B |
| Q2 2026 | $4.6B |
| Q1 2026 | $4.6B |
| Q4 2025 | $7.4B |
| Q3 2025 | $5.7B |
| Q2 2025 | $4.5B |
| Q1 2025 | $4.8B |
| Q4 2024 | $5B |
MSFT spent $21B buying back its own shares over the past year, up 5.2% from the year before.
FOUR Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 4.5x | High |
| Q2 2026 | 4.6x | High |
| Q1 2026 | 4.7x | High |
| Q4 2025 | 4.5x | High |
| Q3 2025 | 4.6x | High |
| Q2 2025 | 2.0x | Moderate |
| Q1 2025 | 5.5x | High |
| Q4 2024 | 5.6x | High |
FOUR's net debt is about 4.5 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), about the same as a year ago.
MSFT Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 0.1x | Very low |
| Q2 2026 | 0.1x | Very low |
MSFT has the edge over FOUR on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
FOUR Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 46.1 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 33.7 | Neutral |
FOUR's weekly RSI is 46 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 34 (neutral).
MSFT Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 62.1 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 68.0 | Neutral |
MSFT's weekly RSI is 62 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 68 (neutral).
FOUR PE vs Technology Sector
| Metric | FOUR | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | N/A | 28x | — |
FOUR has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
MSFT PE vs Technology Sector
| Metric | MSFT | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 27x | 28x | 2% below |
| PE % | 16 | 35 | 19 pts below |
MSFT is trading at 27x earnings, in line with the Technology sector's median of 28x.
FOUR Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $39.8 | 4.3% above |
| 20 week MA | $44.0 | 5.7% below |
| 50 week MA | $48.5 | 14% below |
| 100 week MA | $69.7 | 40% below |
| 200 week MA | $70.3 | 41% below |
FOUR has bounced recently, but its long-term trend is still down: it's above its 8-week average, but 41% below its 200-week average.
MSFT Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $524.7 | 0.3% below |
| 20 week MA | $484.8 | 7.9% above |
| 50 week MA | $446.9 | 17% above |
| 100 week MA | $453.8 | 15% above |
| 200 week MA | $411.5 | 27% above |
MSFT has the edge over FOUR on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
FOUR Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $33.5 | $71.8 | +114% |
| 2021 | $71.8 | $59.2 | -18% |
| 2022 | $59.2 | $54.1 | -8.6% |
| 2023 | $54.1 | $74.3 | +38% |
| 2024 | $74.3 | $104.7 | +41% |
| 2025 | $104.7 | $65.2 | -38% |
| 2026 YTD | $65.2 | $41.5 | -36% |
FOUR has finished lower in three of the last six years. It's down 36% so far in 2026.
MSFT Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $159.0 | $222.8 | +40% |
| 2021 | $222.8 | $334.7 | +50% |
| 2022 | $334.7 | $238.7 | -29% |
| 2023 | $238.7 | $376.0 | +58% |
| 2024 | $376.0 | $430.5 | +14% |
| 2025 | $430.5 | $487.7 | +13% |
| 2026 YTD | $487.7 | $523.0 | +7.2% |
MSFT has the edge over FOUR on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.