FOSL
Fossil Group, Inc.
FOSL has the edge over TSLA overall, supported by stronger valuation and stronger modeled upside.
TSLA
Tesla, Inc.
TSLA has lower modeled downside risk, despite its lower overall score.
FOSL Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Stable | |
| Under pressure | |
| Stable |
FOSL's revenue, profitability and balance sheet are currently stable, but its cash flow is under pressure.
TSLA Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Stable | |
| Under pressure | |
| Strong |
TSLA's revenue and balance sheet are currently healthy, and its profitability is stable, but its cash flow is under pressure.
FOSL PE Valuation
FOSL has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
TSLA PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 60x | $54.70 | -86% |
| Fair | 174x | $158 | -60% |
| Forward | 196x | $397 | — |
| Expensive | 415x | $378 | -4.9% |
| Current | 437x | $397 | — |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
TSLA's PE is in its expensive range at 437x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 196x next year's earnings, in its fair range.
FOSL Forward outlook
There aren't enough analyst estimates for FOSL to show an outlook.
TSLA Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Growth | |
| Growth | |
| Stable | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for TSLA, with profitability holding steady. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
FOSL Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$0.32 | +$0.96 |
| Q2 2026 | -$1.27 | -$0.15 |
| Q1 2026 | -$1.13 | +$0.68 |
| Q4 2025 | -$1.45 | +$0.49 |
| Q3 2025 | -$1.28 | +$1.04 |
| Q2 2025 | -$1.12 | +$1.76 |
| Q1 2025 | -$1.81 | +$0.85 |
| Q4 2024 | -$1.94 | +$1.06 |
FOSL is still losing money, but far less than before: $0.32 per share over the past year, against $3.00 at its worst in late 2023.
TSLA Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $2.03 | +123% |
| Q3 2026 | $0.91 | -39% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.08 | -38% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.09 | -40% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.08 | -47% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.50 | -59% |
| Q2 2025 | $1.73 | -51% |
| Q1 2025 | $1.82 | -53% |
| Q4 2024 | $2.04 | -53% |
TSLA has the edge over FOSL on earnings quality, reporting a profit while its opponent remains loss making.
FOSL Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $271.2M | +0.4% |
| Q2 2026 | $209.7M | -4.9% |
| Q1 2026 | $224.8M | -3.7% |
| Q4 2025 | $280.5M | -18% |
| Q3 2025 | $270.2M | -6.1% |
| Q2 2025 | $220.4M | -15% |
| Q1 2025 | $233.3M | -8.5% |
| Q4 2024 | $342.3M | -19% |
FOSL's revenue has slid since its 2019 peak: $271M last quarter, about level with the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 9.3% | +17 points |
| Q2 2026 | 1.5% | -2.3 points |
| Q1 2026 | 5.4% | +8.3 points |
| Q4 2025 | 0.3% | +5.1 points |
| Q3 2025 | -8% | +0.5 points |
| Q2 2025 | 3.9% | +17 points |
| Q1 2025 | -2.9% | +8.6 points |
| Q4 2024 | -4.8% | +0.9 points |
FOSL has the edge over TSLA on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
TSLA Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $28B | -0.2% |
| Q2 2026 | $28.2B | +26% |
| Q1 2026 | $22.4B | +16% |
| Q4 2025 | $24.9B | -3.1% |
| Q3 2025 | $28.1B | +12% |
| Q2 2025 | $22.5B | -12% |
| Q1 2025 | $19.3B | -9.2% |
| Q4 2024 | $25.7B | +2.1% |
TSLA has the edge over FOSL on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 2.6% | -3.2 points |
| Q2 2026 | 1.4% | -2.7 points |
| Q1 2026 | 4.2% | +2.1 points |
| Q4 2025 | 5.7% | -0.5 points |
| Q3 2025 | 5.8% | -5 points |
| Q2 2025 | 4.1% | -2.2 points |
| Q1 2025 | 2.1% | -3.4 points |
| Q4 2024 | 6.2% | -2 points |
TSLA's operating margin was 2.6% last quarter, down 3.2 points from the same quarter a year ago, near the bottom of its range since 2019.
FOSL Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $428K | +$22.9M |
| Q2 2026 | -$10.1M | -217% |
| Q1 2026 | -$22.7M | +$37.9M |
| Q4 2025 | $14.1M | -51% |
| Q3 2025 | -$22.5M | +$1.6M |
| Q2 2025 | $8.6M | -76% |
| Q1 2025 | -$60.6M | -$59.6M |
| Q4 2024 | $28.5M | -40% |
FOSL's free cash flow was −$18M over the past year, against −$46M the year before.
TSLA Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1.5B | -62% |
| Q2 2026 | -$1.1B | -848% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.4B | +117% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.4B | -30% |
| Q3 2025 | $4B | +46% |
| Q2 2025 | $146M | -89% |
| Q1 2025 | $664M | +$3.2B |
| Q4 2024 | $2B | -1.6% |
TSLA has the edge over FOSL on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
FOSL Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +3.6% | +2.1M shares |
| 1 year | +17% | +8.8M shares |
| 3 years | +17% | +8.7M shares |
| 5 years | +16% | +8.4M shares |
| Available history | +22% | +10.9M shares |
FOSL has 61M diluted shares, up 17% from a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q1 2026 | — |
| Q1 2025 | $3,000 |
| Q4 2023 | $530,000 |
| Q3 2023 | — |
TSLA Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | 0% | +1M shares |
| 1 year | +0.4% | +15M shares |
| 3 years | +1.4% | +48M shares |
| 5 years | +5.1% | +172M shares |
| Available history | +33% | +886M shares |
TSLA has the edge over FOSL on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
FOSL Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 2.5x | Moderate |
| Q2 2026 | 22.0x | High |
| Q1 2026 | 9.8x | High |
| Q4 2022 | 1.1x | Healthy |
| Q3 2022 | 1.9x | Healthy |
| Q2 2022 | 0.9x | Very low |
| Q1 2022 | 0.2x | Very low |
| Q4 2021 | -0.8x | Net Cash |
FOSL's net debt is about 2.5 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), up from 1.9 years a year ago.
TSLA Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -1.1x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | -0.8x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -0.9x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | -1.1x | Net Cash |
| Q3 2025 | -1.4x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -1.1x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -1.1x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | -1.0x | Net Cash |
TSLA has the edge over FOSL on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
FOSL Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 76.5 | Overbought |
| Stochastic | 80.5 | Overbought |
FOSL's weekly RSI is 76 (overbought) and its Stochastic is 81 (overbought).
TSLA Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 54.3 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 72.6 | Neutral |
TSLA's weekly RSI is 54 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 73 (neutral).
FOSL PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector
| Metric | FOSL | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | N/A | 18x | — |
FOSL has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
TSLA PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector
| Metric | TSLA | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 437x | 18x | 2,324% above |
| PE % | 84 | 47 | 37 pts above |
TSLA is trading at 437x earnings, a 2324% premium to the Consumer Cyclical sector's median of 18x.
FOSL Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $7.11 | 23% above |
| 20 week MA | $5.78 | 51% above |
| 50 week MA | $4.83 | 81% above |
| 100 week MA | $3.34 | 162% above |
| 200 week MA | $2.63 | 232% above |
FOSL is in an uptrend: it's above all five of its weekly moving averages, and 232% above its 200-week average.
TSLA Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $376.0 | 5.7% above |
| 20 week MA | $364.0 | 9.2% above |
| 50 week MA | $393.6 | 1% above |
| 100 week MA | $372.1 | 6.8% above |
| 200 week MA | $296.9 | 34% above |
TSLA is in an uptrend: it's above all five of its weekly moving averages, and 34% above its 200-week average.
FOSL Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $7.74 | $9.19 | +19% |
| 2021 | $9.19 | $10.2 | +11% |
| 2022 | $10.2 | $3.98 | -61% |
| 2023 | $3.98 | $1.46 | -63% |
| 2024 | $1.46 | $1.89 | +29% |
| 2025 | $1.89 | $3.85 | +104% |
| 2026 YTD | $3.85 | $8.74 | +127% |
FOSL has the edge over TSLA on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
TSLA Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $28.7 | $220.6 | +669% |
| 2021 | $220.6 | $355.7 | +61% |
| 2022 | $355.7 | $123.2 | -65% |
| 2023 | $123.2 | $248.5 | +102% |
| 2024 | $248.5 | $431.7 | +74% |
| 2025 | $431.7 | $475.2 | +10% |
| 2026 YTD | $475.2 | $397.5 | -16% |
TSLA's yearly returns have swung widely, from +669% in 2020 to −65% in 2022. It's down 16% so far in 2026.