FOSL

Fossil Group, Inc.

59
Fundamentals56/ 100
Valuation50/ 100
Upside potential62/ 100
Risk potential39/ 100

FOSL lost money over the past year, so it has no meaningful PE right now.

FOSL Fundamentals

MetricStatus
Stable
Stable
Under pressure
Stable

FOSL's revenue, profitability and balance sheet are currently stable, but its cash flow is under pressure.

FOSL PE Valuation

FOSL has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.

FOSL Forward outlook

There aren't enough analyst estimates for FOSL to show an outlook.

FOSL Risk to reward

ScenarioChangePrice
Upside+65%$14.42
Downside-39%$5.31

Calculated from the latest close: $8.74 on Nov 12.

FOSL's one-year upside scenario is somewhat larger than its downside: +65% against −39%.

FOSL Earnings Per Share

Q4 2023: $-3.00Q1 2024: $-2.66Q2 2024: $-2.88Q3 2024: $-2.32Q4 2024: $-1.94Q2 2025: $-1.81Q3 2025: $-1.12Q4 2025: $-1.28Q1 2026: $-1.45Q2 2026: $-1.13Q3 2026: $-1.27Q4 2026: $-0.32
Q4 2023: $-3.00Q1 2024: $-2.66Q2 2024: $-2.88Q3 2024: $-2.32Q4 2024: $-1.94Q2 2025: $-1.81Q3 2025: $-1.12Q4 2025: $-1.28Q1 2026: $-1.45Q2 2026: $-1.13Q3 2026: $-1.27Q4 2026: $-0.32
QuarterTTM EPSYoY
Q3 2026-$0.32+$0.96
Q2 2026-$1.27-$0.15
Q1 2026-$1.13+$0.68
Q4 2025-$1.45+$0.49
Q3 2025-$1.28+$1.04
Q2 2025-$1.12+$1.76
Q1 2025-$1.81+$0.85
Q4 2024-$1.94+$1.06

FOSL is still losing money, but far less than before: $0.32 per share over the past year, against $3.00 at its worst in late 2023.

FOSL Quarterly Revenue

Q4 2023: $421MQ1 2024: $255MQ2 2024: $260MQ3 2024: $288MQ4 2024: $342MQ2 2025: $233MQ3 2025: $220MQ4 2025: $270MQ1 2026: $281MQ2 2026: $225MQ3 2026: $210MQ4 2026: $271M
Q4 2023: $421MQ1 2024: $255MQ2 2024: $260MQ3 2024: $288MQ4 2024: $342MQ2 2025: $233MQ3 2025: $220MQ4 2025: $270MQ1 2026: $281MQ2 2026: $225MQ3 2026: $210MQ4 2026: $271M
QuarterRevenueYoY
Q3 2026$271.2M+0.4%
Q2 2026$209.7M-4.9%
Q1 2026$224.8M-3.7%
Q4 2025$280.5M-18%
Q3 2025$270.2M-6.1%
Q2 2025$220.4M-15%
Q1 2025$233.3M-8.5%
Q4 2024$342.3M-19%

FOSL's revenue has slid since its 2019 peak: $271M last quarter, about level with the same quarter a year ago.

FOSL Free Cash Flow

Q4 2023: $47MQ1 2024: −$1MQ2 2024: $37MQ3 2024: −$24MQ4 2024: $28MQ2 2025: −$61MQ3 2025: $9MQ4 2025: −$23MQ1 2026: $14MQ2 2026: −$23MQ3 2026: −$10MQ4 2026: $428,000
Q4 2023: $47MQ1 2024: −$1MQ2 2024: $37MQ3 2024: −$24MQ4 2024: $28MQ2 2025: −$61MQ3 2025: $9MQ4 2025: −$23MQ1 2026: $14MQ2 2026: −$23MQ3 2026: −$10MQ4 2026: $428,000
QuarterFree cash flowYoY
Q3 2026$428K+$22.9M
Q2 2026-$10.1M-217%
Q1 2026-$22.7M+$37.9M
Q4 2025$14.1M-51%
Q3 2025-$22.5M+$1.6M
Q2 2025$8.6M-76%
Q1 2025-$60.6M-$59.6M
Q4 2024$28.5M-40%

FOSL's free cash flow was −$18M over the past year, against −$46M the year before.

FOSL Total Shares

Q4 2023: 52MQ1 2024: 52MQ2 2024: 53MQ3 2024: 53MQ4 2024: 53MQ2 2025: 53MQ3 2025: 54MQ4 2025: 52MQ1 2026: 54MQ2 2026: 58MQ3 2026: 59MQ4 2026: 61M
Q4 2023: 52MQ1 2024: 52MQ2 2024: 53MQ3 2024: 53MQ4 2024: 53MQ2 2025: 53MQ3 2025: 54MQ4 2025: 52MQ1 2026: 54MQ2 2026: 58MQ3 2026: 59MQ4 2026: 61M
PeriodChange %Net change
Quarterly+3.6%+2.1M shares
1 year+17%+8.8M shares
3 years+17%+8.7M shares
5 years+16%+8.4M shares
Available history+22%+10.9M shares

FOSL has 61M diluted shares, up 17% from a year ago.

FOSL Net Leverage

Q2 2026: 9.8xQ3 2026: 22.0xQ4 2026: 2.5x
Q2 2026: 9.8xQ3 2026: 22.0xQ4 2026: 2.5x
QuarterNet LeverageStatus
Q3 20262.5xModerate
Q2 202622.0xHigh
Q1 20269.8xHigh
Q4 20221.1xHealthy
Q3 20221.9xHealthy
Q2 20220.9xVery low
Q1 20220.2xVery low
Q4 2021-0.8xNet Cash

FOSL's net debt is about 2.5 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), up from 1.9 years a year ago.

FOSL Weekly Momentum

MetricValueStatus
RSI76.5Overbought
Stochastic80.5Overbought

FOSL's weekly RSI is 76 (overbought) and its Stochastic is 81 (overbought).

FOSL PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector

MetricFOSLSector medianRelative
PEN/A18x—

FOSL has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.

FOSL Weekly Moving Averages

Moving averageMA priceRelative
8 week MA$7.1123% above
20 week MA$5.7851% above
50 week MA$4.8381% above
100 week MA$3.34162% above
200 week MA$2.63232% above

FOSL is in an uptrend: it's above all five of its weekly moving averages, and 232% above its 200-week average.

FOSL Yearly ROI

YearStart priceEnd priceROI
2020$7.74$9.19+19%
2021$9.19$10.2+11%
2022$10.2$3.98-61%
2023$3.98$1.46-63%
2024$1.46$1.89+29%
2025$1.89$3.85+104%
2026 YTD$3.85$8.74+127%

FOSL's yearly returns have swung widely, from +104% in 2025 to −63% in 2023. It's up 127% so far in 2026.

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